CONFLICTED

Aimen's back after a few days away uncovering the secret info and true motivations behind the Iran War.

Today he and Thomas focus on the Lebanon front in the war, telling the story of how the Lebanese state was progressively undermined over several decades, as non-state actors acted like a cancer on the body politic — with the largest tumour being, of course, Hezbollah.

Aimen and Thomas discuss:

The method behind the madness of Pres. Trump's chaotic messaging.

The likelihood of a U.S. assault on Iran's islands in the Gulf.

Whether Gulf leaders are really egging the U.S. on to bring an end to the regime.

The U.S.'s objective of 'regime destruction' and how that differs from 'regime change'.

The failure of energy traders to price risk properly.

Abdul Malik al-Houthi's speech on 26 March and what it reveals about his intentions

The long history of Lebanon's experience of militant non-state actors and foreign intervention

How Hezbollah was able to re-arm and re-build after the catastrophe of autumn 2024.

How deep corruption within the Lebanese government and military is preventing the state from disbanding Hezbollah.

What to think about all those seasoned analysts who are convinced that America will lose this war.

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
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Aimen has been called away for important last-minute insider meetings, so sitting in for him on today's episode is Nadwa Al-Dawsari, veteran researcher, conflict analyst, and policy advisor with 20 years of field experience in Yemen and the broader Middle East.

Nadwa and Thomas discuss:

How Yemeni tribalism really works

The IRGC agents who are in control of Houthi war policy

Houthi eschatological beliefs

When the Houthis are likely to join the Iran War in force

What the military capabilities of the Houthis really are

The long shadow of the Stockholm Agreement

Houthi techniques of indoctrination and control

The growing Houthi presence in the Horn of Africa

How the Houthis and Al Qaeda are now effectively allies

Why Western decision-makers get the Middle East so disastrously wrong

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Find Nadwa on X: ⁠⁠https://x.com/Ndawsari⁠⁠

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And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas speaks to Harvard professor Sven Beckert about his new book Capitalism: A Global History.

Sven explains:

Why the history of capitalism matters for understanding the present

How most histories of capitalism are too Eurocentric

How merchant communities in the medieval Muslim world and other regions laid the foundations of capitalism

How European merchants learned from and interacted with merchants in the Muslim world

Trust networks in global trade, including family, religious, and city-based merchant networks

How capitalism and state power grew together

European divergence: why Europe became central to capitalism

Effects of Ottoman control and European geopolitical weakness on Atlantic expansion

Role of conquest, slavery, and colonial expansion in building capitalist societies

Tension between capitalism’s drive for unlimited growth and nature’s limits

Challenges to neoliberalism from the left and the populist right

Find Sven on Bluesky: @svenbeckert.bsky.social

Visit Sven’s personal website: svenbeckert.com

Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm

Find Conflicted on X: https://x.com/MHconflicted

And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted

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And YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sdlF1mY5t4

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

All eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island as the United States and its allies struggle to wrest full control of the Arabo-Persian Gulf from the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Aimen and Thomas lay out the whole story of this geostrategically vital region, from ancient times all the way up to this very morning—explaining why this war is happening, and how it is almost certainly to end.

Aimen and Thomas discuss:

How the Strait of Hormuz caused Noah's Flood

The medieval Kingdom of Hormuz

How the Gulf is always caught up in the Iranian plateau's endless boom-and-bust political cycle

How Europeans staked a claim on Hormuz in 1507—and never really left

The fact that the U.S. did indeed go into this war with a plan for Hormuz

How the U.S. will take Kharg Island—and what they will do with it

The ingenuity of Gulf Arab leadership in planning workarounds for the eventuality of the Strait being closed

How European powers and other allies are really contributing to the war effort

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas speaks with Ali Ansari, Professor of Modern Middle East History at the University of St Andrews.

Prof. Ansari discusses:

The depth and antiquity of Iranian culture

His childhood experiences inside the Shah's inner circle

The Shah's biggest mistake

How the revolution could have better built upon what it inherited

The huge incompetence and corruption that has undermined Iran's political economy

How the new Supreme Leader is the IRGC's man

The clarity of America's military aims alongside the opacity of its political aims

The real weaknesses of the Iran Nuclear Deal

How Iranians inside Iran feel about the regime and the war

Follow Prof. Ansari on X: ⁠https://x.com/aa51_ansari

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm ⁠

Find Conflicted on X: ⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠

And Facebook: ⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠

And Instagram: ⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠

And YouTube: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sdlF1mY5t4⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices