State of Play

Fighting has broken out between the Ethiopian government and an alliance of 7 opposition groups. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan of backing the rebel alliance, though officials from all three governments have denied this. This week, Aaron Stanley and Dr. Yonas Ashine Demisse discuss how we got to this place, how shifting geopolitics are shaping conflict dynamics, and what the most likely trajectory of the war is.

Yonas Ashine Demisse, "Rethinking Pax Africana in Multipolar Disorder: A Genealogical Return to Pan-African Futures," Security Context, August 10, 2026.

Aaron Stanley, "After the Supermajority: Ethiopia’s Trajectory Following the 2026 Election," CSIS, June 18, 2026.

Oge Onubogu, "In the Shadows of the Iran War: The Horn of Africa," CSIS Into Africa, March 26, 2026.

The summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could cover a range of issues to potentially include trade, investment, AI, the war with Iran, and Taiwan. The morning after the summit, CSIS’s leading China experts will provide a rapid assessment of its outcomes in a live episode of State of Play on Friday, September 25, at 9:00 AM EDT.

Amb. Edgard Kagan, Dr. Thomas Christensen, Dr. Scott Kennedy, and Dr. Bonny Lin will join host Will Todman to discuss how successful the summit was and what it means for the future of U.S.-China relations.

This event is made possible through general support to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

A recent opinion poll found that Filipinos have the most positive view of President Trump of any of the 36 countries surveyed. On the sidelines of the Manila Strategy Forum, Amb. John Negroponte and Greg Poling join Will to assess the strength of the U.S.-Philippines alliance, the drivers of Filipinos' positive attitudes towards the U.S., and what might threaten bilateral ties going forward.

"Manila Strategy Forum" CSIS, September 9 to 10, 2026.

When faced with President Trump’s economic pressure, most U.S. allies have fallen into line. Canada bucked the trend and stood firm. This week, Will talks with Chris Hernandez-Roy and Diego Marroquin Bitar to discuss if Canada can withstand U.S. pressure, what lies ahead, and what U.S.-Canada tensions mean for the future of free trade in North America.

Christopher Gundermann, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Diego Marroquín Bitar, "Understanding President Trump’s New Tariffs on Canadian Imports," CSIS, July 21, 2026.

Diego Marroquín Bitar and Juan Carlos Baker Pineda, "Inside the Mechanics of the 2026 USMCA Review," CSIS, October 27, 2025.

Diego Marroquin Bitar, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, and Earl Anthony Wayne, "USMCA Review 2026," CSIS, August 18, 2025.

Cyberattacks targeting water and wastewater utilities have been reported in at least a dozen states across the United States since late July. Although there has been no widespread contamination or immediate threat to public drinking water, it is a serious and apparently coordinated attack. Nikita Shah, Caitlin Welsh, and Lauryn Williams join Will Todman to discuss why U.S. critical infrastructure is vulnerable, what can be done to respond, and if there is enough evidence to blame Iran.

State of Play audience survey

Nikita Shah, "The Cyberattacks on the U.S Water Sector and the Iran Question: Escalation or Opportunism?" CSIS, August 14, 2026.

Franck Gbaguidi and Caitlin Welsh, "Rethinking Water as a Frontline Security Risk," CSIS, August 5, 2026.

Lauryn Williams, "Cyberattacks on U.S. Water Systems" CSIS, August 4, 2026.