IIEA Talks

Debates on enlargement usually ask whether candidate countries are ready for the European Union. A more urgent question is whether the EU itself needs to be stronger and safer in a harsher geopolitical environment, and where candidate countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina fit in that picture. Thirty years into its peace process, Bosnia has blocked institutions rather than a functioning state, and its political system is weaker now than at any point since the Dayton Accords. A fragile state surrounded by EU members leaves both Bosnia, and the Union, exposed to actors unfriendly to them. There are more of these actors than before, and new military and arms ties are forming throughout the region. In her remarks to the IIEA, Dr Šelo Šabić argues that the EU should engage with Bosnia out of strategic self-interest, not sympathy for a small post-war country. She discusses how since the EU has no resources to waste, it must choose carefully where it acts. Finally, looking beyond Bosnia to the wider Western Balkans, she sets out what local leaders are responsible for and what Europe can realistically do to change the current trajectory.

Dr Senada Šelo Šabić is a Scientific Adviser at the Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO) in Zagreb, where she heads the Centre for Migration Studies. Born in Bosnia and Herzegovina, she has worked on the country and the wider Western Balkans for over thirty years as an academic and policy analyst. Her research focuses on EU enlargement, foreign policy, and migration. She holds a PhD from the European University Institute in Florence and is a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

In their presentation, Dr Andy Sumner and Dr Stephan Klingebiel reflect on the impact of the fall of almost a quarter of official aid from OECD donors in 2025, the largest annual drop on record. They will take account of the fact that the second Trump administration has torn up the rulebook of development cooperation and that other donors are shifting orientation. Furthermore, they consider futures for development cooperation and explore who will define the new key idea of ‘mutual interest’. The speakers acknowledge that small coalitions of like-minded countries are already building practical tools where universal agreement is hard to reach. They close with an analysis of what like-minded donors can do now.

Dr Susan Murphy will chair the event. She is Associate Professor of Development Practice at Trinity College Dublin, Chair of the Development Studies Association of Ireland  and a member of the Executive Committee of EADI.

Dr Andy Sumner is Professor of International Development at King's College London. He is President of the European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), which has over 100 institutional members. Questions of global inequality run through all his work. Specifically, how inequality is produced and reproduced, within countries and between them, and how economics, politics, and policy shape it. He is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences and the Royal Society of Arts. In Indonesia, he is Visiting Professor at the Centre for Economics and Development Studies, Padjadjaran University. He is a Senior Non-Resident Research Fellow at UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, and the Center for Global Development, Washington DC. In addition, Dr Sumner co-founded the International Development Institute at King's which has since grown into a department. Over 25 years he has published 16 books and more than 100 papers.

Dr Stephan Klingebiel is Chair of the Research Programme “International and Transnational Cooperation” of the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS). His research and university teaching focuses on innovations for transnational cooperation, political economy of aid, aid and development effectiveness, global public goods, rising powers, and governance issues in sub-Saharan Africa. He served as the Director of UNDP's Global Policy Centre in Seoul, Republic of Korea, and as the Founding Director of the KfW Development Bank office in Kigali, Rwanda. Furthermore, he is an Honorary Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Sustainability, Jindal School of Government and Public Policy, India. In addition, Dr Klingebiel has been a Visiting Professor at several universities including Stanford University, the University of Turin, and Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

In his address to the IIEA, Bekim Sali, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of European Affairs of the Republic of North Macedonia, will discuss the 25th Anniversary of the Ohrid Framework Agreement and its role in peacebuilding across the region. 

Bekim Sali serves as First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of European Affairs of the Republic of North Macedonia. In this capacity, he contributes to advancing the country’s European integration agenda, strengthening institutional coordination, and fostering cooperation with European institutions and international partners. His previous public service includes serving as Minister of Health from 2022 to 2023 and as a Member of Parliament from 2024 to 2025. He has a professional background in healthcare and dentistry and holds a Doctor of Dental Medicine degree from Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje.

In his current role, he works to advance North Macedonia’s EU accession process and support the reforms necessary for the country’s progress towards European Union membership.

As Lithuania prepares for its second Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the first half of 2027, the IIEA was delighted to welcome Lithuania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kęstutis Budrys, for a discussion on the country’s priorities and ambitions at a pivotal moment for Europe. Taking over from Ireland as part of the Ireland-Lithuania-Greece Trio Presidency, Lithuania will help guide the Council’s work against a backdrop of significant geopolitical change. This conversation explores Lithuania’s outlook on the future of Europe and the challenges and opportunities facing the EU in the years ahead. 

Kęstutis Budrys has served as the Chief National Security Adviser to the President of the Republic of Lithuania and Head of the National Security Group. He has also served as Secretary of the State Defence Council and Chairman of the Intelligence Coordination Group. In December 2024, he assumed the office of Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania.  

Mr Budrys has more than 20 years of experience in national security. He served for six years as Deputy Director of the State Security Department, Lithuania’s civilian intelligence and security service. In this position, he was responsible for technological intelligence disciplines, intelligence analysis, and threat prevention. From 2009 to 2015, Mr Budrys was Adviser to the President of the Republic of Lithuania on intelligence and defence policy. Prior to 2009, he held senior positions in the field of intelligence analysis.  

Mr Budrys studied at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science of Vilnius University, where he earned a BA in Political Science and an MA in International Relations. He has also completed academic internships at universities in the United States and Canada.

More than four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sanctions remain a central element of Europe’s response. Successive packages have expanded restrictions on Russian energy, finance, trade, technology and military-industrial supply chains, while measures against Belarus reflect its support for Russia’s aggression and the continuing repression carried out by the Lukashenka regime.

In this keynote address and moderated discussion, David O’Sullivan will examine how the EU can sustain economic pressure over the long term. The discussion will explore the effectiveness of existing measures, the challenge of sanctions fatigue, the importance of international coordination, and the steps needed to close the enforcement and circumvention gaps that could otherwise weaken Europe’s response.

David O’Sullivan has a long and distinguished career in the European Public Services, spanning over four decades and he has served in several senior official posts. Prior to his appointment as Sanctions Envoy, he was the Director-General of the Institute of International and European Affairs. Mr O’Sullivan served as Ambassador of the European Union Delegation to the United States from 2014 to 2019. Prior to his appointment as Ambassador to the US, he was Chief Operating Officer of the EU’s new diplomatic service, the European External Action Service. He had previously held a number of senior positions within the European Commission including Director General for Trade (2005-1010), secretary General of the European Commission (2000-2005), and Chief of Staff to Commission President Romano Prodi (1999-2000). Before Joining the Commission, he started his career with the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs, serving from 1977 to 1979. Mr O’Sullivan is a Member of the Governing Board of the King Baudouin Foundation as well as the European Policy Centre.