Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss Brad’s public market predictions, AI enthusiasm and fears, interest rates, inflation, DOGE, federal budget analysis, big tech capex, scaling inference, Satya Nadella, Jensen Huang, Elon Musk, AI reasoning models, chain of thought, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:58) Frontline Ideas for 2025
(07:02) The Bogeyman (Interest Rates and Inflation)
(09:21) Mega Cap Valuations & Expectations
(14:02) Big Tech CapEx
(16:51) Scaling Inference
(20:11) Future of AI
(39:50) Role of Power in AI Development
(42:58) Interest Rates & Economic Growth
(45:11) Federal Spending & DOGE
(54:15) Regulatory Landscape for AI
(01:01:27) Co-opetition in AI
(01:17:06) Reasoning Models & Chain of Thought
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
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1:23:11
AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Dylan Patel, Founder & Chief Analyst at SemiAnalysis, to discuss origins of SemiAnalysis, Google's AI workload, NVIDIA's competitive edge, the shift to GPUs in data centers, the challenges of scaling AI pre-training, synthetic data generation, hyperscaler capital expenditures, the paradox of building bigger clusters despite claims that pretraining is obsolete, inference-time compute, NVIDIA's comparison to Cisco, evolving memory technology, chip competition, future predictions, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:50) Dylan Patel Backstory
(02:36) SemiAnalysis Backstory
(04:18) Google's AI Workload
(06:58) NVIDIA's Edge
(10:59) NVIDIA's Incremental Differentiation
(13:12) Potential Vulnerabilities for NVIDIA
(17:18) The Shift to GPUs: What It Means for Data Centers
(22:29) AI Pre-training Scaling Challenges
(29:43) If Pretraining Is Dead, Why Bigger Clusters?
(34:00) Synthetic Data Generation
(36:26) Hyperscaler CapEx
(38:12) Pre-training and Inference-tIme Reasoning
(41:00) Cisco Comparison to NVIDIA
(44:11) Inference-time Compute
(53:18) The Future of AI Models and Market Dynamics
(01:00:58) Evolving Memory Technology
(01:06:46) Chip Competition
(01:07:18) AMD
(01:10:35) Google’s TPU
(01:14:51) Amason’s Tranium
(01:17:33) Predictions for 2025 and 2026
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
Dylan Patel @dylan522p
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
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1:29:41
Satya Nadella | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, to discuss becoming Microsoft’s CEO, Advice for CEO’s, Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI, Legacy Search, Ten Blue Links, Consumer and Enterprise AI, The Future of AI Agents, Infinite Memory, CoPilot, Microsoft’s Capital Expenditure, Open AI’s future, AI safety & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:31) Becoming Microsoft CEO
(06:42) Satya’s Memo to CEO Committee
(10:42) Satya’s Advantage as a CEO
(11:34) Advice for CEOs
(15:01) Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI
(19:42) AI Arms Race
(23:55) Legacy Search and Consumer AI
(28:07) The Future of AI Agents
(38:32) Near-Infinite Memory
(39:47) Copilot Approach to AI Adoption
(50:26) Leveraging AI within Microsoft
(56:03) CapX
(01:00:20) The Cost of Model Scaling and Inference
(01:15:15) Open AI Conversion to Profit
(01:18:05) Next Steps for OpenAI
(01:19:43) Open vs. Closed and Safe AI
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod
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1:24:41
BG2 Thanksgiving Roundtable: DOGE, EV Tax Credit, Tariffs, Conspiracy Theories, Invest America
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they get in the Thanksgiving spirit, and discuss China, DOGE, Governor Newsom’s EV Tax Credit, Service Titan IPO, FedNow, Tariffs, Anthropic Open Source, Warren Buffet’s Thanksgiving letter, Conspiracy Theories, Invest America, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:40) Innovation in China & U.S. Competitiveness
(05:43) DOGE & Balancing the Budget
(10:43) Service Titan IPO & “Compounding Ratchet”
(15:36) Gov Newsom Attack on Tesla
(18:33) FedNow + Innovations in Payment Systems
(23:44) Tariffs as Negotiation Tactics
(27:36) Anthropic Open Source AI
(30:39) Warren Buffett's Philanthropy
(40:06) Invest America
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod
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44:07
Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss AI Scaling Laws, the future of inference, AI memory and actions, National Full Self-Driving Regulations, FSD 13, Robotaxi and Waymo, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:00) AI Scaling Laws
(05:54) Implications of AI Scaling Trends
(12:20) The Future of Inference and Data Quality
(17:51) AI Memory and Actions
(21:47) National Full Self-Driving Regulation
(23:14) FSD 13
(29:41) Market Disruption: Winners and Losers in the Auto Industry
(31:18) The Future of OEM’s
(40:41) Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
(54:47) Tech Market Check
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod
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