Palisades Gold Radio

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Simon Hunt to the show. Simon is a consultant on the global economy, China, and the copper industry. The discussion opens with the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and its profound implications for global energy supplies. Hunt explains that Saudi Arabia is attempting to broker a new regional architecture involving China, Russia, Pakistan, and Turkey, partly in response to Iran’s demonstrated military capabilities. He assesses only a fifty percent chance of success, warning that even if a ceasefire is reached, reopening the strait to normal traffic could take months, and oil stockpiles in Asia, Europe, and America may be exhausted by mid-July.

This supply crunch, he argues, makes a global recession nearly certain by year-end, deepening significantly in the following year. The conversation shifts to China’s strategic positioning. Hunt notes that China anticipated American geopolitical moves and has diversified its energy sources through pipelines from Russia and Kazakhstan, alongside massive domestic coal and renewable capacity. This allows China to withstand the Hormuz closure indefinitely, unlike Western nations. The discussion then turns to the evolving global monetary order, where Hunt describes a BRICS-led effort to create a multipolar system anchored in physical gold.

He details China’s construction of Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults in Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong, enabling trade settlement in non-G7 currencies convertible to gold. While he sees gold prices reaching double-digit thousands in five years, he cautions that America is unlikely to revalue its gold reserves and warns of potential government confiscation during crises. On commodities, Hunt challenges the prevailing supercycle narrative, calling it premature. He predicts that a deep recession will cause physical demand to collapse, outweighing current supply constraints. He specifically highlights copper, noting that NVIDIA’s shift to photonics could eliminate copper from data centers by 2028, undermining a key demand thesis. Strategic stockpiling of critical minerals by governments will eventually follow, but processing capacity remains a bottleneck controlled by China.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:00 – Middle East Conflict Origins

00:03:46 – New Gulf Security Architecture

00:06:05 – Oil Supply Disruption Impacts

00:08:06 – Straits of Hormuz Reopening

00:08:37 – China Trump Trade Dynamics

00:12:25 – Oil Prices Futures Disparity

00:14:14 – Fertilizer and Food Crisis

00:16:10 – BRICS Monetary System Shift

00:22:51 – Bond Yields and Instability

00:25:02 – Recession Outlook and Assets

00:30:40 – Commodity Supercycle Analysis

00:33:00 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

E-Mail: mailto:[email protected]

Website: https://simon-hunt.com/

Report: https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/

Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.

In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.

He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.

He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.

The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.

Simon is the author of the “Frontline China Report Service,” which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China’s economy, politics, and financial outlook.

Simon established this company in January 1996.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Mining Stock Monkey to the show. The discussion centers on navigating the current commodity cycle with a disciplined, downside-protection-first approach. He emphasizes that while structural tailwinds like electrification, AI infrastructure, and global poverty reduction support a broad commodities bull market, selectivity is critical. He starts by identifying historically cheap commodities—where low prices eventually cure low prices by curbing supply and boosting demand—and then evaluates individual companies on their risk-reward profiles. Nickel tops his list, but he exclusively seeks high-grade nickel-sulfide deposits, avoiding laterite projects due to severe environmental and human rights concerns in Indonesia. Potash also appears cheap, with BHP’s delayed and over-budget Jansen mine potentially discouraging new supply; he notes producers like Nutrien and Mosaic, though he favors royalty exposure through Altius Minerals.

In oil and gas, equities are undervalued at spot prices, but the futures curve points to a sharp decline, making him cautious. He prioritizes protecting against large losses, explaining that avoiding a 75% drop is far more valuable than chasing outsized gains. On precious metals, he views the gold bull market as mature after a decade-long run, yet acknowledges that endless money printing and the weaponization of the dollar could drive prices infinitely higher. He is reducing exposure to riskier gold miners and favors royalty companies like Royal Gold, citing its superior margins, built-in growth, relative undervaluation, and potential S&P 500 inclusion as key downside protections.

Silver, however, raises concerns: a parabolic chart pattern and the fact that over a billion rural Asians hold silver as savings could trigger massive selling if they cash in on recent price spikes, potentially flooding the market. He also briefly notes that thermal coal’s chart resembles a classic bottoming pattern worth investigating.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:06 – Commodities Bull Market Outlook

00:03:40 – Identifying Cheap Commodities

00:06:37 – Attractive Commodities Nickel Oil

00:08:08 – Oil Equities and Supply Risks

00:09:50 – Downside Protection Strategy

00:16:03 – Potash Market Analysis

00:21:44 – Nickel Sulphide Deposits

00:25:40 – Gold Markets Currently

00:30:52 – Miners & Risk/Reward

00:36:12 – Finding Value In Miners

00:42:07 – Junior Explorers & Developers

00:47:05 – Silver Market Thoughts

00:53:57 – Thermal Coal

00:54:48 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/@MiningStockMonkey

Website: https://miningstockmonkey.com/products/vip

X: https://x.com/miningstockguy

Substack: https://miningstockmonkey.substack.com

Jordan is an independent resource investor and the founder of Mining Stock Monkey. He shares his personal portfolio, dynamic valuation models, and in-depth research with a growing audience of serious investors.

His approach is uncompromisingly independent: no corporate sponsors, no investment banking fees, and no hidden agendas. Jordan invests his own capital and transparently shares exactly what he is buying and selling, along with the proprietary valuation models and research that drive his decisions.

If you’re an asset manager, family office, or high-net-worth investor looking for authentic, high-conviction resource opportunities, you can access Jordan’s real-time portfolio and join a private community of like-minded investors here: https://miningstockmonkey.com/products/vip

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Michael Oliver to the show. Michael Oliver is Momentum Structural Analysis MSA. Oliver argues that a major government bond crisis is quietly underway, driven by unsustainable debt levels in the US and other developed nations. He contends that the T-bond market is on the verge of breaking down to new price lows, an event largely ignored by mainstream financial media but one that could trigger a panic.

This looming crisis, he believes, will force central banks into aggressive money printing to defend government bonds, which in turn will act as rocket fuel for gold and silver. Oliver explains that gold’s long-term rise is not due to transient geopolitical uncertainty but rather the ongoing degradation of fiat currencies through relentless monetary expansion. He sees the stock market as bloated and in the process of forming a major top, similar to the dot-com and mortgage crisis peaks. When equities eventually falter, capital will flee into hard assets, propelling precious metals into a vertical, “wet bar of soap” phase where everyone scrambles to buy.

Silver, which recently broke out of a 50-year price range, is poised for dramatic gains. Oliver projects a move to $300–$500 per ounce, representing hundreds of percent in returns, vastly outpacing gold. He also highlights precious metals miners as an especially attractive opportunity, noting their historically low valuations relative to gold and their potential to double rapidly once they break out on a relative performance basis. Beyond precious metals, Oliver sees a broader commodity supercycle emerging, with oil, grains, and base metals all in technical positions to advance significantly. He advises a long-term, non-leveraged approach to the commodity complex as an asset class shift unfolds. Overall, Oliver’s momentum-based analysis points to an imminent, explosive revaluation of hard assets, urging investors to position themselves before the government bond crisis becomes front-page news.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:41 – Gold and Fiat Money Dynamics

00:03:09 – Government Bond Crisis Warning

00:03:43 – T-Bond Technical Analysis

00:08:46 – Structural Bond Market Trends

00:20:02 – Gold Bull Market Cadence

00:32:37 – Silver Price Forecast

00:37:36 – Silver Outperformance Potential

00:41:16 – Precious Metals Miners Outlook

00:46:48 – Selecting Individual Miners

00:50:23 – Broader Commodity Opportunities

00:54:42 – Closing and Resources

Guest Links:

Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/

X: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA

Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5

Email: mailto:[email protected]

Email MSA above, and they will send you this week’s report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.

J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.

In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Doomberg to the show. Doomberg is Head Writer For The Doomberg Team and Creator of the Doomberg Substack. The podcast explores the current geopolitical and energy landscape, focusing on the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and potential global power dynamics. Discussing the current energy market disruptions, Doomberg suggests that while the Strait of Hormuz closure is significant, the market has been surprisingly stable. He estimates the potential oil supply disruption at around 8 million barrels per day, significantly lower than some analysts’ predictions.

The sophisticated oil markets have absorbed these challenges, with China potentially playing a crucial role by releasing strategic reserves and managing supply. The conversation delves into a potential grand geopolitical bargain that might be discussed in the upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi in Beijing. Doomberg speculates about a potential realignment of global interests, including a settlement of the Ukraine conflict on terms favorable to Russia, ceding Taiwan to China’s sphere of influence, and dividing Middle Eastern and Arctic territories among major powers. Regarding the US dollar and global economic shifts, Doomberg argues that we’re moving towards a multipolar or potentially Chinese-dominated unipolar world. He sees the sanctions against Russia after Crimea as the beginning of a new world order, with China and Russia challenging US global dominance.

The discussion highlights the United States’ significant natural gas advantage, with the country producing 110 billion cubic feet per day and poised to become a major LNG exporter. Doomberg emphasizes the potential for North American energy dominance, particularly through clean and abundant natural gas. Looking forward, Doomberg suggests a potential multipolar world with the US focusing on its Western Hemisphere, China gaining prominence, and Russia finding its place. He remains cautiously optimistic about a potential diplomatic resolution to current global tensions, while acknowledging the complexity of geopolitical negotiations.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:38 – Oil Supply Disruption Assessment

00:03:54 – China’s Oil Stockpiling Role

00:05:02 – Oil Price Mechanics Explained

00:10:24 – Supply Shortage Estimates

00:12:52 – Strait Reopening Impact

00:15:20 – Trump-Xi Meeting Significance

00:17:54 – Grand Bargain Outlines

00:22:45 – US Western Hemisphere Focus

00:26:30 – Fading Oil Spike Strategy

00:31:03 – Fertilizers and Commodity Impacts

00:34:53 – Helium Just-In-Time

00:36:16 – OPEC & the Petrodollar

00:39:20 – Geopolitical Shifts and Gold

00:46:46 – Unipolarity Outcomes

00:53:46 – Euro Hydrocarbon Resources

00:56:37 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Substack: https://doomberg.substack.com

X: https://x.com/DoombergT

Website: https://doomberg.com

Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Luke Gromen to the show. Luke Gromen is President and Founder of Forest For The Trees. Luke explores unprecedented global economic and geopolitical shifts, focusing on massive commodity supply disruptions and transforming monetary systems. He highlights several critical trends: the largest commodity supply flow disruption in history, unprecedented levels of globalization, sovereign debt, and market valuations. He argues that current global tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, could trigger significant economic challenges. The potential closure of strategic maritime routes could lead to dramatic supply chain breakdowns, potentially causing localized famines and massive economic disruptions.

Gromen suggests that while the US dollar will remain widely used, it will no longer be the primary wealth storage mechanism. China is strategically positioning itself by establishing yuan-gold settlement systems and offshore clearing banks, effectively creating a multi-currency framework with gold as the pivotal settlement asset.

Geographically, Gromen sees varied outcomes for different regions. He believes the United States has geographical advantages but warns against urban living during this transition. Europe appears most vulnerable, while Asian countries like China, Japan, and South Korea are potentially well-positioned to benefit from these shifts, particularly given their engineering capabilities and demographic dynamics.

Regarding commodities, Gromen anticipates a generational trend favoring strategic metals like copper, silver, nickel, rare earths, and uranium. He predicts that future commodity trades will increasingly require value-for-value exchanges, moving away from paper-based transactions. The underlying theme is a fundamental restructuring of global economic systems, driven by supply chain fragilities, geopolitical tensions, and the need for more resilient, productivity-focused economic models. Gromen suggests this transition will likely involve significant inflation and economic recalibration, with gold playing a central role in the emerging monetary landscape.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:44 – Unprecedented Energy Disruption

00:02:48 – Globalization and Debt Levels

00:05:00 – Equity Valuations Warning

00:07:20 – Market Pricing Liquidity

00:09:01 – Supply Chain Breakdowns

00:10:28 – Disruption Lag Effects

00:12:15 – Oil Policy Miscalculations

00:15:27 – Geopolitical Trade-offs

00:21:50 – Hubris vs Strategy

00:28:33 – China’s Strategic Benefits

00:33:56 – Monetary Order Shift

00:39:52 – Gold’s Reserve Role

00:45:06 – Future Debasement & Gold

00:49:46 – Regional Economic Outlooks

00:56:10 – Commodity Generational Trends

01:00:12 – New section

Guest Links:

X: https://x.com/lukegromen

Website: https://fftt-llc.com/

Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC’s flagship weekly research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s customers.

In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC (“Forest for the Trees”), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.

Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.