Palisades Gold Radio

Ted Oakley, founder of Oxbow Advisors, warns that the current risk-reward setup in financial markets is unfavorable, with potential rewards of only 5-6% against risks of 25-30%. He believes earnings estimates for 2027 are too high, citing a slowdown in AI growth, a struggling real estate sector, and declining manufacturing. Oakley expects the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes to be a mistake, potentially leading to a sluggish economy in early 2027. He maintains a defensive posture with 55% of portfolios in short-term Treasuries, emphasizing that cash is the only safe haven during market declines.

Oakley sees value in energy stocks, which trade at low single-digit P/E multiples, but notes they are not immune to a broad downturn. He has trimmed energy positions after recent highs. He holds gold bullion as a long-term currency hedge against persistent fiscal deficits and dollar debasement, though he expects near-term volatility. Gold miners are attractively valued with strong earnings and reduced debt, but Oakley awaits a clearer market bottom before adding. He also favors royalty companies like Wheaton and Franco-Nevada for their lower capital risk.

Other commodity exposures include iron ore, copper, and fertilizers, with the latter benefiting from potential agricultural demand due to La Niña. Oakley’s firm, Oxbow Advisors, prioritizes capital preservation over aggressive growth, catering to clients who have experienced liquidity events and seek to avoid significant losses.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:47 – Risk/Reward and Market Positioning
00:02:09 – Where Do the Risk/Reward Numbers Come From?
00:03:23 – Current Market Multiples and Earnings
00:04:42 – Tail Risk and the Wealth Effect
00:05:52 – AI Boom vs. Historical Bubbles
00:07:18 – Portfolio Defensiveness and Cash Allocation
00:09:46 – Outlook on US Treasury Market
00:12:15 – Hard Asset Allocation Strategy
00:13:44 – Energy Cycle and Middle East Conflict
00:16:26 – Energy Valuations and Quality Gates
00:20:01 – Importance of Inventory in Energy
00:22:10 – Gold Outlook and Portfolio Role
00:24:22 – Rate Hikes and Gold Dynamics
00:29:41 – Gold Miners and Royalty Companies
00:36:06 – Fertilizer and Agriculture Outlook

Links

https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors

https://oxbowadvisors.com

https://www.youtube.com/user/OxbowAdvisors

About the Guest

J. Ted Oakley, CFA, CFP, is Managing Director and Founder of Oxbow Advisors. With more than forty years of experience in advising high net worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, Thoughtful Money, The David Lin Report, and many more.

Mr. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran.

Mr. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 40 years ago. He is the author of Eleven books: You Sold Your Company, $30 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, Your Money Mentality, Stay Rich with a Balanced Portfolio & his 2025 latest release: Second Generation Wealth.

Mr. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. Mr. Oakley recently arranged for Foster Angels in South Texas to represent The Heart Gallery of Texas to further their adoption efforts.

Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group provides a comprehensive analysis of the gold market, arguing that we are in the middle of multiple bullish cycles. He identifies a long-term “gold renaissance” that began in 2000-2002, with a second leg up starting in 2019. While gold has pulled back from recent highs, Christian believes this is a consolidation within a larger uptrend that could continue for another year or two. He emphasizes that the primary drivers are a deeply hostile macroeconomic and political environment, including economic stagnation, rising global debt, and a breakdown in international cooperation, which continue to push investors toward gold as a safe haven.

Christian dismisses the idea of a gold price “reset” or a return to a gold standard, calling such notions a fantasy due to the market’s size and liquidity. He explains that central banks are buying gold for diversification, not as a settlement currency, and that the dollar remains the preferred reserve asset despite its problems. He also provides a nuanced view on silver, noting it will likely see sharp price spikes but will underperform gold on a long-term average basis due to its smaller market and industrial demand dynamics, which are being impacted by substitution in solar panels.

On the current dip, Christian suggests the floor may have been reached, as many investors and central banks are waiting for lower prices to buy. He states he will only consider selling his gold when he sees concrete signs of a more stable and optimistic outlook, specifically two consecutive fiscally responsible U.S. administrations—a scenario he does not expect to see in his lifetime. He advises caution in the junior mining sector, emphasizing that strong management is more critical than the quality of the properties themselves.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Introduction
00:04:40 – Key Economic & Political Problems
00:08:35 – Global Debt & Treasury Market Dynamics
00:13:00 – Will the Dollar Collapse? Avoiding Doom
00:15:29 – Parabolic Money Printing & Fed Capacity
00:18:36 – Gold Monetary Reset: Fantasy vs. Reality
00:22:40 – Gold as a Settlement Currency? BRICS Myth
00:28:19 – Current Gold Dip: Attractive Add or More Downside?
00:30:49 – When Will This Bull Market End?
00:33:01 – Historical Fiscal Stringency & Market Cycles
00:37:14 – Silver Thesis: Less Optimistic Than Gold
00:40:38 – Silver Spikes vs. Long-Term Performance
00:41:12 – Gold Miners: Treacherous but Lucrative
00:42:26 – About CPM Group & Free Resources

Links

https://x.com/CPMGroupLLC

https://www.cpmgroup.com/

mailto:info@cpmgroup.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos

About the Guest

Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.

Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.

He has advised many of the world’s largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.

Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, argues that the next few decades will be radically different from the last, driven by the unsustainability of Western social welfare states, massive global debt, and the end of the post-1971 dollar system. He describes a “long cycle” where decades of easy credit and overconsumption have led to a “winter” phase, characterized by demographic crises and a fragile financial system. Gromen highlights the core dilemma: the U.S. must reshore its industrial base to remain a sovereign power, but doing so requires massive inflation, which would destroy the bond market. He frames this as a choice between saving the dollar or saving the bond market, arguing the only viable path is to let the dollar fall and inflate away the debt, effectively destroying bondholders’ real returns.

Gromen explains that reshoring is nearly impossible without China’s cooperation, as China dominates critical supply chains. He uses electricity generation and auto consumption as metrics to show the U.S. has stagnated in real terms for 20 years, while China has surged. He predicts a multi-decade period of secular inflation, with gold as the ultimate beneficiary. Gromen sees gold’s rise as a necessary mechanism for the U.S. to retain sovereignty, as a higher gold price allows the country to rebuild its industrial and military base. He notes that the infrastructure for a gold revaluation is already in place, citing the indictment of JP Morgan’s gold desk, Basel III changes, and China’s gold-for-oil trade, and suggests a U.S. gold-backed bond could trigger a massive arbitrage that forces gold much higher.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:09 – Are the next decades wildly different?
00:02:38 – Long cycles, social welfare, and overconsumption
00:05:47 – Unsustainability of Western social democracy
00:09:13 – Can reindustrialization save the West?
00:12:25 – Why can’t the US reshore without China?
00:14:27 – US vs China: Rising vs declining power
00:20:36 – Save the dollar or save the bond market?
00:26:30 – Generational bear market for bonds
00:30:01 – Will all currencies fall against gold?
00:32:14 – Foreign holdings of US debt and crisis risk
00:36:13 – Is this a multi-decade inflationary phenomenon?
00:41:29 – Could a gold reset solve the crisis?
00:48:40 – Price discovery mechanics for gold
00:57:26 – Gold miners vs bullion in current environment

Links

https://x.com/lukegromen

https://fftt-llc.com/

About the Guest

Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC’s flagship weekly research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s customers.

In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC (“Forest for the Trees”), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.

Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.

John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, joins Palisades Gold Radio to discuss the transformative shift in metals and mining over the past five years. He explains that the sector has moved from being ignored by institutional investors to becoming a strategic necessity, driven by commodity price breakouts, strong balance sheets, and geopolitical factors like China’s weaponization of critical minerals. Ciampaglia emphasizes that gold remains in a bull market despite a sharp correction, noting that fundamentals such as debt levels, stagflation, and geopolitical risk remain unchanged. He highlights central bank buying, particularly by China, as a key driver, with countries rotating from paper assets like U.S. treasuries into physical gold and other hard assets.

The conversation covers the role of gold as a monetary metal, with Ciampaglia drawing parallels to the 1970s stagflation era. He discusses the potential for increased investor demand as institutions reconsider traditional portfolio allocations, citing Morgan Stanley’s shift toward a 60-20-20 model with gold as a new component. On silver, he notes its volatility and the impact of India’s import restrictions, which have removed a major physical buyer, but remains constructive on long-term supply deficits and industrial demand. Ciampaglia also addresses the risks of paper markets and leverage, advocating for fully allocated physical metals through Sprott’s products.

Ciampaglia provides insights into the mining complex, praising improved management discipline and free cash flow generation, while acknowledging short-term market noise and uncertainty. He discusses copper’s strategic importance, driven by electrification, AI data centers, and supply constraints, and highlights Sprott’s unique physical copper trust. For uranium, he outlines a structural supply deficit, the shift back to nuclear energy as baseload power, and the long lead times for new mines, concluding that incentive pricing remains ahead. He directs listeners to Sprott’s website for educational resources and insights.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction and John’s Background
00:02:21 – Why Now for Metals and Mining?
00:06:46 – Gold Bull Market and Current Correction
00:12:42 – Stagflation Parallels to the 1970s
00:16:34 – Gold as a Monetary Metal and Reset
00:21:24 – Investor Demand and Portfolio Allocation
00:25:06 – Risks of Paper Gold and Futures Markets
00:28:44 – Silver Market Manipulation and India
00:33:04 – Silver’s Bull Case and Volatility
00:37:10 – Gold Mining Stocks and Leverage
00:42:33 – Sentiment and Wall of Worry for Miners
00:45:20 – Copper: Physical vs Miners
00:52:42 – Uranium Supply Deficit and Nuclear Revival
01:03:05 – Closing Thoughts and Resources

Links

https://sprott.com/

About the Guest

John Ciampaglia is Chief Executive Officer, Sprott Asset Management and Senior Managing Partner, Sprott Inc. He has over 30 years of investment industry experience and oversees Sprott’s public market investment strategies, as well as serving as the Portfolio Manager for the company’s physical commodity funds. Mr. Ciampaglia plays an active role in developing new investment strategies, acquisitions, marketing and strategic partnerships. Before joining Sprott in 2010, he was a Senior Executive at Invesco Canada, serving as Senior Vice President, Product Development. Prior to joining Invesco Canada, he spent more than four years at TD Asset Management. Mr. Ciampaglia earned a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from York University, is a CFA® charterholder and a Fellow of the Canadian Securities Institute.

Colonel Douglas Macgregor, a decorated combat veteran and former advisor to the U.S. Secretary of Defense, joins Palisades Gold Radio to discuss the escalating geopolitical landscape and its implications for global markets. He argues that the world is de-globalizing and the post-1945 order is collapsing, with Washington trapped in a struggle for global hegemony it can no longer afford. Macgregor dismisses any notion of a negotiated resolution in the Middle East, predicting a massive air assault on Iran that will likely fail to achieve its objectives, potentially leading to the use of tactical nuclear weapons—a dangerous precedent that could legitimize their use by other nations.

Macgregor highlights the strategic failures of U.S. military power, noting that despite unprecedented defense spending, the U.S. cannot defend its allies against Iranian and Houthi missile attacks. He points to the destruction of Gulf oil infrastructure and the collapse of U.S. credibility as key consequences. This military impotence, combined with financial strain, is accelerating the shift toward resource sovereignty and regional blocs. He emphasizes that the U.S. is losing the competition for critical minerals and rare earths, particularly in Africa, while China and Russia are gaining ground, and suggests that Canada and Latin America offer the best opportunities for U.S. resource security.

On the economic front, Macgregor argues that the Federal Reserve has lost control over inflation and that the U.S. is heading toward financial destruction. He predicts a commodity super cycle driven by underinvestment and geopolitical fragmentation, with gold prices set to rise dramatically, potentially reaching $10,000 an ounce by 2030. He dismisses short-term market fluctuations as noise, framing gold as a long-term hedge against the inevitable deterioration of the U.S. economy and the collapse of the current global financial system.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:21 – Middle East Escalation Assessment
00:03:11 – De-globalization and Hegemony
00:05:41 – Elections and Policy Continuity
00:06:32 – Preparatory Strikes on Iran
00:07:23 – Massive Air Assault Expected
00:08:47 – Tactical Nuclear Weapons Question
00:12:57 – Dangerous Precedent of Nukes
00:14:21 – Saudi War and US Credibility
00:16:21 – China Containment and Military Limits
00:19:21 – Energy and Mining Impact
00:22:50 – Conspiracy Theories Debunked
00:25:47 – Resource Sovereignty and Trade
00:31:27 – China’s Gold Accumulation and Remonetization

Guest Links

https://douglasmacgregor.com

https://x.com/DougAMacgregor

https://substack.com/@coloneldoug

https://www.youtube.com/@macgregorwarriordiplomacy

https://breakingdefense.com/author/doug-macgregor/

About the Guest

Douglas Macgregor is a decorated combat veteran, an author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant.

Macgregor was commissioned in the Regular Army in 1976 after 1 year at VMI and 4 years at West Point. In 2004, Macgregor retired with the rank of Colonel. In 2020, the President appointed Macgregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense, a post he held until President Trump left office. He holds an MA in comparative politics and a PhD in international relations from the University of Virginia.

Macgregor is widely known inside the U.S., Europe, Israel, Russia, China and Korea for both his leadership in the Battle of 73 Easting, the U.S. Army’s largest tank battle since World War II, and for his ground breaking books on military transformation: Breaking the Phalanx (Praeger, 1997) and Transformation under Fire (Praeger, 2003). Macgregor’s recommendations for change in Force Design and “integrated all arms-all effects” operations have profoundly influenced force development in Israel, Russia and China. In 2010, Macgregor traveled to Seoul, Korea to advise the ROK Ministry of Defense on force design. In 2019, Transformation under Fire was selected by Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi, Chief of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), as the intellectual basis for IDF transformation. His fifth book, Margin of Victory: Five Battles that Changed the Face of Modern War from Naval Institute Press is available in Chinese, as well as, English and will soon appear in Hebrew.

In 28 years of service Macgregor taught in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point, commanded the 1st Squadron, 4th Cavalry, and served as the Director of the Joint Operations Center at SHAPE during the 1999 Kosovo Air Campaign for which he was awarded the Defense Superior Service medal. In January 2002, at Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s insistence the USCENTCOM Commander listened to Colonel Macgregor’s concept for the offensive to seize Baghdad. The plan was largely adopted, but assumed no occupation of Iraq by U.S. Forces.

Macgregor has also testified as an expert witness before the Senate and House Armed Services Committees and appeared as a defense analyst on Fox News, CNN, BBC, Sky News and public radio. He is fluent in German.