Palisades Gold Radio

Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, argues that the next few decades will be radically different from the last, driven by the unsustainability of Western social welfare states, massive global debt, and the end of the post-1971 dollar system. He describes a “long cycle” where decades of easy credit and overconsumption have led to a “winter” phase, characterized by demographic crises and a fragile financial system. Gromen highlights the core dilemma: the U.S. must reshore its industrial base to remain a sovereign power, but doing so requires massive inflation, which would destroy the bond market. He frames this as a choice between saving the dollar or saving the bond market, arguing the only viable path is to let the dollar fall and inflate away the debt, effectively destroying bondholders’ real returns.

Gromen explains that reshoring is nearly impossible without China’s cooperation, as China dominates critical supply chains. He uses electricity generation and auto consumption as metrics to show the U.S. has stagnated in real terms for 20 years, while China has surged. He predicts a multi-decade period of secular inflation, with gold as the ultimate beneficiary. Gromen sees gold’s rise as a necessary mechanism for the U.S. to retain sovereignty, as a higher gold price allows the country to rebuild its industrial and military base. He notes that the infrastructure for a gold revaluation is already in place, citing the indictment of JP Morgan’s gold desk, Basel III changes, and China’s gold-for-oil trade, and suggests a U.S. gold-backed bond could trigger a massive arbitrage that forces gold much higher.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:09 – Are the next decades wildly different?
00:02:38 – Long cycles, social welfare, and overconsumption
00:05:47 – Unsustainability of Western social democracy
00:09:13 – Can reindustrialization save the West?
00:12:25 – Why can’t the US reshore without China?
00:14:27 – US vs China: Rising vs declining power
00:20:36 – Save the dollar or save the bond market?
00:26:30 – Generational bear market for bonds
00:30:01 – Will all currencies fall against gold?
00:32:14 – Foreign holdings of US debt and crisis risk
00:36:13 – Is this a multi-decade inflationary phenomenon?
00:41:29 – Could a gold reset solve the crisis?
00:48:40 – Price discovery mechanics for gold
00:57:26 – Gold miners vs bullion in current environment

Links

https://x.com/lukegromen

https://fftt-llc.com/

About the Guest

Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC’s flagship weekly research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s customers.

In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC (“Forest for the Trees”), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.

Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.

John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, joins Palisades Gold Radio to discuss the transformative shift in metals and mining over the past five years. He explains that the sector has moved from being ignored by institutional investors to becoming a strategic necessity, driven by commodity price breakouts, strong balance sheets, and geopolitical factors like China’s weaponization of critical minerals. Ciampaglia emphasizes that gold remains in a bull market despite a sharp correction, noting that fundamentals such as debt levels, stagflation, and geopolitical risk remain unchanged. He highlights central bank buying, particularly by China, as a key driver, with countries rotating from paper assets like U.S. treasuries into physical gold and other hard assets.

The conversation covers the role of gold as a monetary metal, with Ciampaglia drawing parallels to the 1970s stagflation era. He discusses the potential for increased investor demand as institutions reconsider traditional portfolio allocations, citing Morgan Stanley’s shift toward a 60-20-20 model with gold as a new component. On silver, he notes its volatility and the impact of India’s import restrictions, which have removed a major physical buyer, but remains constructive on long-term supply deficits and industrial demand. Ciampaglia also addresses the risks of paper markets and leverage, advocating for fully allocated physical metals through Sprott’s products.

Ciampaglia provides insights into the mining complex, praising improved management discipline and free cash flow generation, while acknowledging short-term market noise and uncertainty. He discusses copper’s strategic importance, driven by electrification, AI data centers, and supply constraints, and highlights Sprott’s unique physical copper trust. For uranium, he outlines a structural supply deficit, the shift back to nuclear energy as baseload power, and the long lead times for new mines, concluding that incentive pricing remains ahead. He directs listeners to Sprott’s website for educational resources and insights.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction and John’s Background
00:02:21 – Why Now for Metals and Mining?
00:06:46 – Gold Bull Market and Current Correction
00:12:42 – Stagflation Parallels to the 1970s
00:16:34 – Gold as a Monetary Metal and Reset
00:21:24 – Investor Demand and Portfolio Allocation
00:25:06 – Risks of Paper Gold and Futures Markets
00:28:44 – Silver Market Manipulation and India
00:33:04 – Silver’s Bull Case and Volatility
00:37:10 – Gold Mining Stocks and Leverage
00:42:33 – Sentiment and Wall of Worry for Miners
00:45:20 – Copper: Physical vs Miners
00:52:42 – Uranium Supply Deficit and Nuclear Revival
01:03:05 – Closing Thoughts and Resources

Links

https://sprott.com/

About the Guest

John Ciampaglia is Chief Executive Officer, Sprott Asset Management and Senior Managing Partner, Sprott Inc. He has over 30 years of investment industry experience and oversees Sprott’s public market investment strategies, as well as serving as the Portfolio Manager for the company’s physical commodity funds. Mr. Ciampaglia plays an active role in developing new investment strategies, acquisitions, marketing and strategic partnerships. Before joining Sprott in 2010, he was a Senior Executive at Invesco Canada, serving as Senior Vice President, Product Development. Prior to joining Invesco Canada, he spent more than four years at TD Asset Management. Mr. Ciampaglia earned a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from York University, is a CFA® charterholder and a Fellow of the Canadian Securities Institute.

Colonel Douglas Macgregor, a decorated combat veteran and former advisor to the U.S. Secretary of Defense, joins Palisades Gold Radio to discuss the escalating geopolitical landscape and its implications for global markets. He argues that the world is de-globalizing and the post-1945 order is collapsing, with Washington trapped in a struggle for global hegemony it can no longer afford. Macgregor dismisses any notion of a negotiated resolution in the Middle East, predicting a massive air assault on Iran that will likely fail to achieve its objectives, potentially leading to the use of tactical nuclear weapons—a dangerous precedent that could legitimize their use by other nations.

Macgregor highlights the strategic failures of U.S. military power, noting that despite unprecedented defense spending, the U.S. cannot defend its allies against Iranian and Houthi missile attacks. He points to the destruction of Gulf oil infrastructure and the collapse of U.S. credibility as key consequences. This military impotence, combined with financial strain, is accelerating the shift toward resource sovereignty and regional blocs. He emphasizes that the U.S. is losing the competition for critical minerals and rare earths, particularly in Africa, while China and Russia are gaining ground, and suggests that Canada and Latin America offer the best opportunities for U.S. resource security.

On the economic front, Macgregor argues that the Federal Reserve has lost control over inflation and that the U.S. is heading toward financial destruction. He predicts a commodity super cycle driven by underinvestment and geopolitical fragmentation, with gold prices set to rise dramatically, potentially reaching $10,000 an ounce by 2030. He dismisses short-term market fluctuations as noise, framing gold as a long-term hedge against the inevitable deterioration of the U.S. economy and the collapse of the current global financial system.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:21 – Middle East Escalation Assessment
00:03:11 – De-globalization and Hegemony
00:05:41 – Elections and Policy Continuity
00:06:32 – Preparatory Strikes on Iran
00:07:23 – Massive Air Assault Expected
00:08:47 – Tactical Nuclear Weapons Question
00:12:57 – Dangerous Precedent of Nukes
00:14:21 – Saudi War and US Credibility
00:16:21 – China Containment and Military Limits
00:19:21 – Energy and Mining Impact
00:22:50 – Conspiracy Theories Debunked
00:25:47 – Resource Sovereignty and Trade
00:31:27 – China’s Gold Accumulation and Remonetization

Guest Links

https://douglasmacgregor.com

https://x.com/DougAMacgregor

https://substack.com/@coloneldoug

https://www.youtube.com/@macgregorwarriordiplomacy

https://breakingdefense.com/author/doug-macgregor/

About the Guest

Douglas Macgregor is a decorated combat veteran, an author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant.

Macgregor was commissioned in the Regular Army in 1976 after 1 year at VMI and 4 years at West Point. In 2004, Macgregor retired with the rank of Colonel. In 2020, the President appointed Macgregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense, a post he held until President Trump left office. He holds an MA in comparative politics and a PhD in international relations from the University of Virginia.

Macgregor is widely known inside the U.S., Europe, Israel, Russia, China and Korea for both his leadership in the Battle of 73 Easting, the U.S. Army’s largest tank battle since World War II, and for his ground breaking books on military transformation: Breaking the Phalanx (Praeger, 1997) and Transformation under Fire (Praeger, 2003). Macgregor’s recommendations for change in Force Design and “integrated all arms-all effects” operations have profoundly influenced force development in Israel, Russia and China. In 2010, Macgregor traveled to Seoul, Korea to advise the ROK Ministry of Defense on force design. In 2019, Transformation under Fire was selected by Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi, Chief of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), as the intellectual basis for IDF transformation. His fifth book, Margin of Victory: Five Battles that Changed the Face of Modern War from Naval Institute Press is available in Chinese, as well as, English and will soon appear in Hebrew.

In 28 years of service Macgregor taught in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point, commanded the 1st Squadron, 4th Cavalry, and served as the Director of the Joint Operations Center at SHAPE during the 1999 Kosovo Air Campaign for which he was awarded the Defense Superior Service medal. In January 2002, at Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s insistence the USCENTCOM Commander listened to Colonel Macgregor’s concept for the offensive to seize Baghdad. The plan was largely adopted, but assumed no occupation of Iraq by U.S. Forces.

Macgregor has also testified as an expert witness before the Senate and House Armed Services Committees and appeared as a defense analyst on Fox News, CNN, BBC, Sky News and public radio. He is fluent in German.

Josef Schachter, author and president of the Schachter Energy Report, joins Palisades Gold Radio to assess the global energy system amid shifting Middle East geopolitics. Despite ongoing conflict, crude flows out of the Persian Gulf are running above pre-war levels—Saudi Arabia is even discounting barrels into Asia—yet refined products tell a different story. LNG, sulfur, nitrogen, and fertilizer exports remain constrained, and diesel shortages persist as Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries remove key supply from global markets.

Schachter outlines three scenarios for the Iran conflict and assigns rough probabilities: a durable peace deal (30%), a limited air campaign that resolves nothing (roughly one-third), and a wider regional war (roughly one-third). With WTI near $97 and Brent near $105, he estimates $22–$25 per barrel of risk premium is priced in against an equilibrium value of roughly $75. A credible peace deal, in his view, could take another $20–$25 off crude—but he cautions that restocking strategic reserves, rebuilding damaged infrastructure, and restoring commercial inventories will take time, delaying rather than derailing the commodity super cycle he expects to run into the mid-2030s.

On equities, Schachter argues energy stocks are discounting $70 oil while cash flow multiples of 2–3x sit well below proved developed producing reserve values—a classic cycle-bottom setup. He explains his framework for evaluating producers, the criteria he applies to entrepreneurial names (management track record, large land positions, infrastructure access, and supportive jurisdictions), and why Canadian producers offer cheaper entry points and greater drilling inventory than U.S. peers. He also covers natural gas, where growing LNG export capacity and data-center power demand could unlock higher prices, and outlines where investors can find his research and buy-signal alerts.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Introduction and Middle East war outlook
00:00:46 – Energy system: crude flows vs product shortages
00:04:54 – US election impact on markets and Iran policy
00:06:32 – Saudi production, diesel shortage, refinery issues
00:08:49 – Logistics, restocking, and commodity super cycle
00:15:19 – Escalation scenario: oil at $120-130 and risks
00:21:26 – Refinery damage and Persian Gulf escalation risks
00:24:07 – Odds of peace vs war and oil risk premium
00:27:16 – War delays super cycle; demand and restocking
00:29:12 – Long-term commodity bull market until 2034-36
00:36:14 – Buying the dip: integrated vs small producers
00:38:01 – What to look for in entrepreneurial explorers
00:42:00 – Natural gas stocks, LNG exports, power demand
00:45:11 – Where to find research and closing remarks

Links

https://schachterenergyreport.ca

About the Guest

Subscription Discount for Palisade Listeners, $100 off the first year of our subscription, use coupon code “POD100”

https://schachterenergyreport.ca/subscriptions/

Josef Schachter is a 40+ year veteran of the Canadian Investment Management Industry, Josef Schachter has experienced several exceptional and turbulent global economic and stock market cycles. With his primary focus in the stock market and the energy sector, Josef is able to weave global political, economic and monetary issues with current energy data into a compelling story of what’s going on, what is to come, and why.

Josef is a frequent guest on Michael Campbell’s Podcast ‘Mikes Money Talks’ and other podcast and radio shows and is often quoted in the media. He is a regular Guest Speaker at the annual World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver and he delivers presentations to various companies and organizations. For several years, he was a frequent and notably colourful commentator on BNN Bloomberg’s Market Call.

Josef provided Oil and Gas research to Maison Placements Canada geared to their institutional clients for 15 years ending April 2017, and was acknowledged as the first analyst in Canada to predict the Oil Price Plunge of 2014.

Prior to establishing his firm Schachter Asset Management Inc. in 1996, Josef was the Chief Market Strategist at Richardson Greenshields, a Director of RGCL and a member of its Investment Policy Committee. He holds a Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a past Chairman of the Canadian Council of Financial Analysts.

Simon Hunt, a financial and geopolitical analyst, delivers a stark warning about an imminent escalation in the Middle East, arguing that the “House of Saud” is at risk of falling. He details a secret meeting in Tehran between Saudi Arabia’s defense minister and Iran’s security council, suggesting a major realignment. Hunt contends that the Houthi war on Saudi Arabia is a separate conflict that is successfully damaging oil infrastructure, and that a full-scale attack on Iran would lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crippling global energy supplies. He predicts a period of at least three years of extremely high prices for diesel, gasoline, and fertilizers, culminating in a major financial crash between 2030 and 2032.

The conversation frames the current conflicts as a single, coordinated war against the US-led order, orchestrated by Beijing and Moscow. Hunt argues that America’s long-term strategy to control global resources is failing, as Iran is fully backed by Russia and China. He suggests we are witnessing the end of the American empire and the birth of a multipolar world, with a potential for a major war between 2028 and 2032. For investors, he advises a nimble, short-term approach, predicting a recession in 2027 followed by a resurgence of double-digit inflation by 2029.

Hunt’s key actionable takeaways are to treat gold as a security and liquidity hedge, not a speculative trade, and to watch Beijing rather than Washington for the true revaluation of the metal. He highlights that Chinese households have accumulated over 28,000 tonnes of physical gold, which could revalue their economy by $20 trillion. Ultimately, he recommends focusing on short-term market cycles and avoiding long-term investment commitments in the face of extreme volatility and geopolitical risk.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:34 – Iran War Restart Analysis
00:03:11 – Houthi War on Saudi Arabia
00:06:42 – Strait of Hormuz Closure Threat
00:09:32 – Second Strike Odds & US Risks
00:13:37 – Energy War & Relative Power
00:18:52 – 3-5 Year High Energy Prices
00:22:54 – Global Fuel Shortages Loom
00:25:48 – Elections & War Timing
00:27:17 – Beijing & Moscow Pulling Strings
00:30:58 – End of Empire & Multipolar World
00:33:10 – Resource Wars & Demographics
00:36:28 – 2027 Recession & Fed Strategy
00:40:41 – Gold as Security & China’s Hoard

Links

mailto:simon@shss.com

https://simon-hunt.com/

https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/

About the Guest

Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.

In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.

He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.

He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.

The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.

Simon is the author of the “Frontline China Report Service,” which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China’s economy, politics, and financial outlook.

Simon established this company in January 1996.