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Rick Rule: Rick Rule: The Case for Underinvested Commodities | Oil, Nickel, and Zinc
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Rick Rule to the show. Rick Rule is Investor, Speculator, Founder & CEO of Rule Investment Media. In this comprehensive discussion, Rule provides deep insights into commodity markets, focusing on gold, oil, and various other resources. Regarding gold, Rule believes the precious metal is positioned for significant growth over the next five to ten years. He anticipates a potential 75% decline in the US dollar's purchasing power, which could translate to a three-fold increase in gold's nominal price. Rule emphasizes that while gold's trajectory won't be a smooth ascent, investors should be prepared for volatility and cyclical movements. In the energy sector, Rule is particularly bullish on oil and gas. He argues that despite narratives about alternative energy, fossil fuels will remain the dominant global energy source for decades. He sees tremendous value in companies like Exxon, which he believes is trading at a 50% discount to its net present value. Rule suggests that the industry's ongoing infrastructure investments and technological advancements make oil and gas an attractive investment opportunity. Rule also shares perspectives on various commodities, including nickel, copper, zinc, and uranium. He highlights the significant underinvestment in these sectors over the past decades, which creates potential long-term investment opportunities. For instance, he sees a substantial copper supply deficit emerging in the next five years due to decades of underinvestment. Beyond commodities, Rule discusses his involvement with Rule Investment Media and Battle Bank, offering investors resources to analyze natural resource stocks and providing innovative banking services. He encourages investors to conduct thorough research, be patient, and look for opportunities in sectors experiencing market disfavor. Throughout the conversation, Rule's investment philosophy emphasizes understanding long-term trends, focusing on high-quality producers, and being willing to take calculated risks in undervalued sectors. His approach combines deep industry knowledge with a pragmatic, patient investment strategy.
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57:49
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57:49
Lobo Tiggre: The Commodities Super Cycle | Gold, Silver, Copper, Uranium & Critical Minerals
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Lobo Tiggre to the show. Lobo Tiggre is Author and Founder of the Independent Speculator Founder and CEO of Louis James LLC. The discussion centers on the current state of commodities, with a particular focus on gold, silver, copper, and uranium. Tiggre provides a nuanced perspective on the gold market, highlighting several key factors driving its current rise. He notes central bank buying, portfolio rebalancing, and increasing mainstream interest as significant catalysts. While bullish on gold, he cautions against assuming a straight upward trajectory, emphasizing the potential for corrections. He views gold primarily as financial insurance, recommending investors consider their exposure based on global economic uncertainties. Regarding commodities, Tiggre argues that inflationary trends and global economic transformations are creating a potential super-cycle. He is particularly enthusiastic about copper, citing strong demand from electrification, AI data centers, and significant supply constraints. He expects a multi-year, potentially multi-decade bull market in copper, though he's waiting for strategic entry points. Tiggre also discusses uranium, presenting a bullish case driven by increasing global nuclear energy adoption and constrained supply. He sees a robust market for the next few years, barring a major nuclear incident. His investment approach remains fundamentally value-oriented, seeking opportunities when assets are undervalued. The discussion explores a broader macroeconomic perspective, with Tiggre describing a stagflationary outlook. He points to weakening labor markets and persistent inflation as key indicators, suggesting economic challenges ahead. His investment philosophy emphasizes disciplined speculation, focusing on value propositions and avoiding momentum-driven investments. Throughout the conversation, Tiggre consistently advises investors to maintain perspective, avoid emotional decision-making, and be prepared for market fluctuations. He recommends having a strategic approach to investing, being willing to rotate between sectors, and always maintaining a critical view of market narratives.
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57:42
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57:42
Matt Smith: Gold, The Changing World Order & USA Strategic Investment in Critical Mineral
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Matt Smith to the show. Matt Smith is Co-Author of "The Preparation" & Host of "Doug Casey's Take" Podcast. The conversation centers on the current economic landscape, with a particular focus on gold, monetary policy, and potential global financial reset. Smith discusses the unprecedented rise in gold prices, noting it has topped $4,040 and suggesting this bull market is unique. He believes the United States and China may have an unspoken agreement to use gold as a "liquidity sink" to manage massive economic challenges, particularly the enormous $175 trillion in unfunded liabilities. Smith argues that the current gold price surge is not just about preservation of capital, but potentially wealth creation. He points to historical comparisons, such as housing prices measured in gold terms, which have dramatically shifted over the past decades. Morgan Stanley's recent recommendation of 20% portfolio allocation to gold underscores the metal's growing importance. The discussion explores broader geopolitical and economic trends, including potential monetary resets, the role of critical minerals, and alternative educational paths. Smith is skeptical of traditional higher education, instead advocating for a more experiential learning approach outlined in his book "The Preparation", which he co-authored with Doug Casey. Regarding gold and precious metals, Smith believes we are in the early stages of a significant market transformation. He sees gold as uniquely positioned to serve as a monetary reset mechanism, with potentially dramatic price increases ahead. He suggests the price could reach extraordinary levels, potentially hitting $23,000 per ounce as part of a broader economic recalibration. The conversation touches on various global economic dynamics, including trade wars, critical mineral strategies, and potential geopolitical shifts. Throughout, Smith maintains a pragmatic yet cautious perspective on current economic trends, emphasizing the potential for significant structural changes in the global monetary system.
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Josh Young: The Commodity Super Cycle | Oil & Gas, Silver and Gold
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josh Young to the show. Josh Young is Chief Investment Officer & Founder, Bison Interests. The podcast delves into a comprehensive discussion about the oil and gas markets, commodity cycles, and investment opportunities. Young provides a compelling thesis for oil and natural gas, centered on significant global underinvestment in exploration and production over the past decade. He argues that the current market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, which paradoxically creates an attractive investment opportunity. The fundamental driver of his bullish stance is the persistent 1% annual demand growth for oil, which has remained consistent despite predictions of decline due to electric vehicles and alternative energy. Regarding supply dynamics, Young highlights the dramatic reduction in exploration and capital expenditures in the oil and gas sector. He notes that global oil production investments have dropped from around $900 billion annually to approximately $500 billion, with exploration expenditures becoming a tiny fraction of previous levels. This underinvestment, combined with natural field decline rates, suggests a potential supply crunch in the coming years. Young is equally optimistic about natural gas, citing growing demand from data centers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. He sees potential for significant price appreciation driven by increasing demand and limited new production capacity. In the equity markets, Young finds the most attractive opportunities in small-cap oil producers and, particularly, oil services companies. He emphasizes that surviving services companies are exceptionally well-managed and can be purchased at significant discounts to replacement cost, often with attractive free cash flow yields. Drawing parallels with the precious metals sector, Young sees similar market dynamics emerging in oil and other commodities. He believes the current market setup resembles previous commodity cycles, where intense pessimism precedes substantial price appreciation. To share his insights, Young has launched a newsletter called Bison Insights, where he provides structured investment ideas and analysis in the energy and commodities space.
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1:07:51
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1:07:51
Greg Orrell: Why Gold & Silver Are Surging | Identifying the Right Miners
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Greg Orrell to the show. Greg Orrell is President and Portfolio Manager, OCM Gold Fund. In this engaging discussion, Orrell provides deep insights into the current gold market, highlighting the significant price movements and underlying economic factors driving precious metals' performance. Orrell explains that gold's current surge, over 50% this year, is primarily driven by global government debt and currency debasement. He argues that central banks are increasingly viewing gold as a stability anchor, with many countries looking to diversify away from the US dollar. The unprecedented monetary landscape has created a unique environment where gold is seen as a critical financial instrument. As a seasoned investor with 40 years of experience, Orrell describes himself as a long-term value investor focused on gold and silver mining companies. His investment strategy involves carefully selecting mining companies across different stages - from major producers to exploration companies - with a keen eye on management quality, project feasibility, and potential for long-term value creation. Orrell is particularly critical of mining companies that pursue "profitless prosperity" by unnecessarily lowering cut-off grades or extending mine life without creating shareholder value. He emphasizes the importance of margin expansion and maintaining disciplined investment approaches. The discussion also explores the broader economic context, including government debt, potential currency challenges, and the shifting global monetary landscape. Orrell believes we are in a unique monetary cycle driven by declining confidence in traditional currency systems. Regarding investment opportunities, Orrell suggests investors should maintain a 5-10% position in gold and silver assets as a form of monetary insurance. He sees significant potential in gold and silver miners, particularly as central banks and international markets increasingly recognize these metals' strategic importance. The OCM Gold Fund, which Orrell has managed since 1996, focuses exclusively on precious metals equities, providing investors a specialized approach to navigating this complex and potentially lucrative market segment.
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