Palisades Gold Radio

Stijn Schmitz welcomes a new guest to the show David Woo. David is a Macro Analyst and Former Wall Street strategist. In this wide-ranging interview, Woo provides insights into the current geopolitical and economic landscape, focusing on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its potential implications for global markets. Woo argues that the current war represents the first proxy conflict between the United States and China, with Iran playing a strategic role. He suggests that the conflict’s outcome could significantly impact global dynamics, particularly concerning oil trade and maritime control. Specifically, he highlights the potential for China to resist US control of the Strait of Hormuz, drawing parallels to historical conflicts like Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor.

Regarding gold, Woo offers a nuanced perspective. He explains that gold’s recent performance has been more closely correlated with stock market movements, driven largely by retail investor behavior rather than traditional fundamental drivers like inflation or de-dollarization. While he remains long-term bullish on gold, he believes the metal’s short-term performance is more tied to broader market sentiment.

On oil markets, Woo is fundamentally bearish, citing massive global production increases from non-OPEC producers like Ghana, Venezuela, Brazil, and the United States. He anticipates oil prices will eventually collapse, particularly once the current conflict resolves. He also sees potential opportunities in defense-related sectors, believing increased military spending is likely in the conflict’s aftermath. Woo’s analysis extends to broader geopolitical trends, including the potential reshaping of global economic relationships.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:40 – Guest Introduction and Welcome

00:03:30 – Gold’s Correlation with Stocks

00:06:38 – Retail Investors Driving Gold

00:10:54 – De-dollarization and Inflation Trends

00:13:00 – China’s Gold Buying Impact

00:15:17 – Energy Outlook

00:19:22 – Iran Off-Ramp?

00:21:56 – War Outcomes and Military Spending

00:23:00 – Conflict Outcomes

00:25:00 – Hormuz in Dire Straits?

00:27:15 – Proxy War with China

00:30:30 – Petrodollar System Status

00:32:57 – Oil Futures Curve Analysis

00:34:22 – Oil Demand

00:37:30 – Short-Term Approach

00:38:33 – Rare Earth Metals

00:41:00 – His Book and Gold

Guest Links:

Website: https://davidwoounbound.com

X: https://x.com/Davidwoounbound

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Formerly Head of Global Interest Rates and former senior Wall Street strategist, David built his reputation by challenging consensus thinking — calling Trump’s 2016 election, the post-COVID rebound, and major macro inflection points before they happened.

One of the most respected macro strategists on Wall Street, today he brings that same independent, data-driven analysis directly to retail investors — free from institutional bias, groupthink, and agendas.

He is joined by John Hopkinson, PhD, a mathematician trained at MIT, who translates David’s macro vision into precise, actionable trading strategy — complete with stock selections, targets, and stop levels published every week.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Trader Ferg to the show. Trader Ferg is a Full-time Trader & Author of the Trader Ferg Substack. In this wide-ranging discussion, Trader Ferg shares his insights on several critical commodity markets and geopolitical developments, focusing primarily on coal and corn as compelling investment opportunities. Regarding coal, Trader Ferg argues that the conflict in the Red Sea and disruptions to LNG infrastructure have created a structural shift that will drive thermal coal prices higher. He highlights the significant damage to LNG trains and the resulting long-term supply constraints, particularly for European energy markets. With European gas storage at historic lows and alternative supply routes limited, coal becomes an increasingly attractive alternative. Ferg expects thermal coal prices to potentially reach the low $200 per ton range, driven by Asian cooling demands and European energy needs.

For corn, Trader Ferg sees significant potential due to fertilizer supply disruptions caused by conflicts in the Red Sea. The timing coincides with critical planting seasons, which could create acute shortages and price volatility. He prefers playing corn through options, citing the attractive volatility and low cost of entry compared to traditional equity plays. The conversation also explores broader macroeconomic trends, including the potential for gold to re-emerge as a settlement currency between nations.

Ferg believes we’re witnessing an acceleration of de-dollarization, with countries like Russia exploring gold-based settlement mechanisms with Asian trading partners. On precious metals, Ferg remains bullish, viewing the current pullback as a temporary setback in a longer-term bull market. He anticipates continued inflationary pressures and potential monetary expansion will ultimately support gold and other commodity prices. Throughout the discussion, Trader Ferg emphasizes his investment philosophy of identifying underappreciated, cyclical commodities with structural tailwinds and asymmetric potential for significant price appreciation.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:33 – Welcoming Guest Furgerskullen

00:01:05 – Spotlight on Coal Opportunities

00:02:03 – LNG Supply Disruptions Analysis

00:04:49 – Europe’s Russian Gas Ban

00:09:57 – Thermal Coal Demand Revival

00:17:15 – Fertilizer Shortages Hit Grains

00:23:12 – Precious Metals Bull Market

00:30:31 – Gold as Settlement Currency

00:32:50 – Platinum Group Elements Update

00:38:30 – Oil Market Dynamics Discussion

00:45:16 – Helium Export Vulnerabilities

00:48:40 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Substack: https://traderferg.substack.com/

X: https://x.com/trader_ferg

Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.

Stijn Schmitz your host welcomes Gary Wagnar to the show. Gary Wagnar is Executive Producer of TheGoldForecast.com. In this detailed discussion about gold markets, Wagnar provides a comprehensive technical analysis of current gold trading conditions, highlighting significant market movements and potential future trajectories. Currently, gold is experiencing notable volatility, with prices dropping below $5,000 per ounce.

Gary emphasizes the importance of the 50-day moving average as a critical technical indicator, noting that breaking below this level suggests a potential pivot from a bullish to a bearish market trend. He attributes the recent price decline primarily to the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain current interest rates, which has dampened gold’s performance. Despite the short-term bearish outlook, Wagnar remains cautiously optimistic about gold’s long-term prospects. He points out that gold has still gained 16% over the past year, which is a significant performance compared to other commodities.

The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and potential inflationary pressures from rising oil prices could provide future support for gold prices. Wagnar also discusses his technical analysis approach, particularly his preference for Japanese candlestick charting, which he believes offers superior visual insights into price movements compared to traditional Western bar charts. He uses Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential support and resistance points, currently suggesting that gold could find support around $4,677 if the current downward trend continues.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:45 – Market Volatility Overview

00:01:00 – Compelling Trading Setups

00:01:07 – Gold Technical Breakdown

00:01:43 – Geopolitical Conflict Impacts

00:02:40 – Federal Reserve Influence

00:04:51 – Gold Yearly Performance

00:05:30 – Miners Disparity Analysis

00:10:06 – Bull Market Cycle Position

00:10:15 – Candlestick Chart Techniques

00:27:19 – Long-Term Bull Outlook

00:33:39 – Oil Spike Inflation

00:37:23 – Silver Market Leverage

00:45:44 – Guest Service Details

00:53:36 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Website: https://thegoldforecast.com

X: https://x.com/TheGoldForecast

Gary S. Wagner is the executive producer of TheGoldForecast.com – a daily video newsletter covering precious metals. He has been a technical market analyst for over 35 years.

Since 2010 he has been a regular analyst for Kitco News, where he authors daily commentary “Hawaii 6-O”. He has written for Stocks & Commodities Magazine, Futures Magazine, Street, and Barons. He has been a speaker for many financial seminars like Dow Jones Financial Symposium or Futures West.

Gary S. Wagner coauthored a book “Trading Applications of Japanese Candlestick Charting” a John Wiley publication. He also co-developed a software application for market forecasting called the “Candlestick Forecaster”. Considered as one of the first computer programs to recognize and identify Candlestick patterns. He was mentored by many great technical analysts like John Bollinger and Larry Williams.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Jeffrey Christian to the show. Jeff is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. In this comprehensive discussion, Christian provides nuanced insights into the current state of precious metals, global economics, and geopolitical dynamics. Regarding gold, Christian argues that the market is in a long-term secular upward trend, with the current bull market potentially 60-70% through its cycle. He emphasizes that gold serves as a financial asset, a safe haven, and a portfolio diversifier.

While acknowledging concerns about global deficits and debt, Christian suggests these issues are not as catastrophic as some analysts claim, pointing out that economic systems have historically adapted to significant financial challenges. The discussion explores broader economic trends, including de-globalization, reduced international trade, and potential decoupling of the world economy from the United States. Christian highlights the complex dynamics of central bank and sovereign wealth fund gold purchases, noting a critical distinction between monetary reserve acquisitions and investment-driven purchases.

On silver and other precious metals, Christian describes a more specialized and volatile market compared to gold. He provides detailed insights into market dynamics, including arbitrage opportunities, industrial demand, and regional variations in trading. The conversation also delves into geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its potential implications for oil markets and global trade. Christian warns of potential economic disruptions, suggesting that a combination of factors could lead to a recession, including challenges in private equity, technology sectors, and international trade relationships.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:52 – Gold Long-Term Cycle

00:04:26 – Bull Market Drivers

00:07:46 – De-globalization Effects

00:11:32 – Middle East Conflict

00:15:14 – Gold’s Safe Haven Role

00:20:33 – Retail Investor Participation

00:23:10 – Miners & Gold Disparity

00:24:47 – Silver Market Dynamics

00:28:32 – East Vs. West Prices

00:33:10 – Precious Metals Outlook

00:37:54 – Global Energy Crisis

00:42:08 – Dire Straits

00:43:54 – Supply Chain Concerns

00:48:13 – Recession Precious Metals

00:53:15 – Recession Risk & Liquidity

00:54:14 – CPM Group Overview

Guest Links:

X: https://x.com/CPMGroupLLC

Website: https://www.cpmgroup.com/

Questions E-Mail: mailto:[email protected]

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos

Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.

Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.

He has advised many of the world’s largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes David Hunter to the show. David Hunter is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. David provides a comprehensive macro outlook that anticipates a significant market transformation in the coming years. He believes the current market is in the late stages of a 43-year secular bull market, with a potential melt-up phase that could see the S&P 500 reaching 9,500 by mid-year or Labor Day. However, he warns of an impending “bust” that could result in an 80% market decline, potentially worse than the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Hunter’s analysis suggests a complex economic landscape where initial deflationary pressures will give way to potentially hyperinflationary conditions by the early 2030s. He anticipates central banks will be slow to respond to the economic downturn, potentially requiring up to 20 trillion in quantitative easing to stabilize the system. The federal balance sheet could expand from the current 6.5 trillion to as much as 30 trillion.

Regarding asset classes, Hunter recommends a strategic approach to capital preservation. He believes the current investment mantra of “time in the market” will be insufficient and investors should consider carefully timing their exit from markets. He expects significant opportunities in commodities and industrial sectors, with potential dramatic price increases in oil, copper, and precious metals. For gold specifically, Hunter forecasts a potential rise to $6,800 this year and potentially $20,000 by the early 2030s. He views gold as a potential hedge against the massive economic restructuring he anticipates. His outlook extends to a potential systemic financial reset between 2033-2035, which he describes as the end of an 80-90 year economic supercycle.

Hunter emphasizes that while the coming economic transformation will be challenging, it will also create new investment opportunities, particularly in industrial and commodity sectors. He advises investors to remain flexible and prepared for significant market disruptions.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:45 – Market Volatility Overview

00:02:52 – Melt-Up Scenario Explained

00:05:03 – Interest Rates Outlook

00:08:10 – Inflation and Money Supply

00:10:26 – Bust Phase Predictions

00:11:35 – Asset Performance Melt-Up

00:13:33 – Post-Melt-Up Recession

00:20:37 – Middle East Conflict Impact

00:24:20 – Oil Price Forecasts

00:27:10 – Investment Strategy Advice

00:38:03 – Gold and Commodities Future

00:42:50 – Gold During the Bust

00:44:06 – US Dollar and Gold Role

00:51:01 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

X: https://x.com/DaveHcontrarian

David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.