Palisades Gold Radio

Brett Rentmeester, founder of Windrock Wealth Management, argues that we are entering a “Fourth Turning”—a roughly 100-year crisis cycle in American history, following the American Revolution, Civil War, and Great Depression/WWII. He identifies four major tailwinds that powered the last 40 years of conventional investing (falling inflation, falling interest rates, rising equity multiples, and massive debt accumulation) as now reversing into headwinds. With US debt at $40 trillion, interest payments consuming 28% of tax revenue, and the 10-year Treasury at 5.1%, Rentmeester warns of a “death by a thousand cuts” rather than an outright default—characterized by financial repression, higher inflation, and eroding purchasing power.

Rentmeester highlights a critical duality: while the old system cracks, the US retains advantages in technology (AI, robotics, energy abundance) and dollar infrastructure (stablecoins, treasury-backed crypto rails). He recommends a playbook shift away from the traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio toward hard assets—precious metals (gold, silver), energy infrastructure, strategic metals, and defense technology. He notes gold’s potential for “much higher” revaluation if governments are forced to back fiat currencies with bullion, citing Judy Shelton’s advisory role to the Fed and central bank accumulation as evidence. Key data points include the CAPE ratio at 40.5 (near dot-com peak), healthcare insurance costs rising 22% annually versus government-reported 2.5% CPI, and the average car payment at $787/month.

Investors should expect higher inflation and interest rates over the next decade, making bonds selectively risky and equity index returns likely to disappoint. Rentmeester advocates owning physical precious metals held outside the banking system, adding mining equities and tactical paper contracts as part of a three-pronged metals strategy, and maintaining exposure to energy infrastructure, natural gas, and strategic metals (copper, uranium, rare earths) that benefit from reshoring and geopolitical tensions. He also suggests reducing exposure to Europe and regions vulnerable to debt crises while positioning for continued defense spending growth.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Cycle Change and Fourth Turning
00:01:26 – Historical Crisis Cycles Explained
00:03:22 – Drivers of the 100-Year Cycle
00:04:14 – Tailwinds Turning to Headwinds
00:08:37 – Debt Spiral and Fiat Crisis
00:10:11 – Equity Multiple Expansion Risks
00:12:38 – Approaching Debt Spiral Danger
00:13:44 – Failing Institutions and Trust
00:15:58 – Inflation Distortions and War Impact
00:19:17 – Global Debt Problem Scope
00:21:06 – US Advantages and Tech Hope
00:24:23 – Government Tools to Prolong Dollar
00:27:18 – Consequences for Next 50 Years
00:30:16 – Wealth Management Geopolitical Strategy
00:31:49 – Commodities and Resource Sovereignty
00:36:32 – Energy Complex and Oil Opportunities
00:39:23 – Gold as Real Return Hedge
00:42:51 – Government Gold Accumulation
00:44:39 – Mining Stocks Leverage Potential
00:46:03 – Consolidation Buying Opportunity
00:48:03 – Critical Metals and Defense
00:49:43 – Windrock Wealth Management Overview

Links

https://windrockwealth.com/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/brettrentmeester/

About the Guest

Brett Rentmeester founded WindRock Wealth Management to bring tailored investment solutions to investors seeking an edge in an increasingly uncertain world. Mr. Rentmeester is a veteran and entrepreneur in the investment business. Through his career, including as a co-founder of Altair Advisers and manager at Arthur Andersen, he was a trusted confidant for business owners, entrepreneurs and family offices.

His entrepreneurial spirit led him to create and build a number of successful companies in the financial services industry through partnership with the Jaggi Family Office, where he serves as the Chief Investment Officer. Throughout his career, he has focused on the importance of strong relationships, strategic thinking, and an expertise in alternative investments.

Mr. Rentmeester’s media appearances include appearances on the PBS Nightly Business Report program, the Chicago Tribune, and the World Presidents’ Organization. He graduated magna cum laude from the University of Arizona with a degree in Finance and earned his MBA from Northwestern’s Kellogg Graduate School of Management. He has been a multiple-year recipient of the Chicago Magazine Five Star Wealth Award, is a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder (CFA®) and has the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst designation (CAIA®).

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Stijn Schmitz welcomes Stephen G. Roman to the show. Stephen is the Chairman, President and CEO of Global Atomic. The discussion centers on Global Atomic’s DASA uranium project in Niger, which stands as the highest-grade uranium deposit in Africa. Stephen recounts his lifelong involvement in uranium, from his father’s discovery in Elliot Lake to incorporating Global Atomic in 2005 and securing permits in Niger’s Tim Mersoï Basin.

The DASA deposit was discovered in 2010, but development was delayed by the Fukushima disaster and a decade-long uranium downturn. Despite these challenges, the company advanced feasibility studies, obtained a mining permit in 2021, and began underground mining in 2022, leveraging the experienced workforce from the shuttered Cominak mine. A pivotal moment came with the July 2023 coup in Niger, which caused most international operators to lose their uranium assets. Global Atomic retained its permits because it had strictly followed Niger’s mining code, having commenced mine construction within the required timeframe, unlike other companies.

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The coup caused a two-year delay, but the company maintained its team and restarted development once borders reopened. Stephen details the recent approval of a $414 million loan facility from the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which required re-educating new board members after the U.S. election. Remaining conditions include securing a shipping port and harmonizing the mining permit tenure with the loan. Options include ports in Algeria, Nigeria, or Benin, with logistics being actively negotiated.

Stephen emphasizes strong government relations, noting meetings with Niger’s president and ministers, who support the project for its employment and economic benefits. The government holds a 20% stake in the operating company, and Stephen expects this to remain steady under the existing mineral convention. DASA is projected to produce 4–5 million pounds of uranium annually, with potential to double output as market conditions allow. The company recently raised $57 million and is exploring additional bridge financing. Key upcoming catalysts include finalizing DFC conditions, first drawdown, and construction milestones like the process plant steel erection. The DFC backing is also attracting interest from U.S. utilities for off-take agreements, signaling growing confidence in the project.

Guest Links:
Website: https://globalatomiccorp.com/

Stephen G. Roman is the founder, Chairman, President and CEO of Global Atomic Corporation, and was previously the President & CEO of TSX listed Harte Gold Corp. Mr. Roman has successfully identified, financed, developed, and brought into commercial production many mining and oil and gas projects in the past 40 years and notably he was the founder, Co-Chairman and Director of Gold Eagle Mines Ltd., that was acquired by Goldcorp Inc. for $1.5 Billion in 2008.

Previously he was a Policy Advisor to the Minister of National Defence, Canada, spearheaded the privatization of two major petrochemical companies in Central Europe, was Director and VP Exploration of Denison Mines Limited and was instrumental in the initial creation and leadership of Gabriel Resources, Belo Sun Mining, Exall Energy, Silvermet and Polar Star Mining among others. Mr. Roman received the “Bill Dennis Award” for Canadian Mineral Discovery from the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) in March, 2016.

Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, joins Palisades Gold Radio to dissect the current energy crisis. He argues that while the market has avoided outright shortages in the West, the war has created a “balkanized” global oil market. The primary issue is not just crude supply, but a severe crisis in refining capacity, particularly for middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel. Diesel crack spreads have hit unprecedented levels (near $100-$120 a barrel), driven by a combination of the Iran war, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, and Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure. This has led to a million to 1.5 million barrels per day loss in diesel supply, with emerging markets like Indonesia feeling the pain of outright shortages first.

Johnston highlights the compounding effect of skyrocketing shipping costs, which have risen tenfold due to the inefficient “dark transit” system in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on vessels. This has fractured the global market into isolated pockets of oversupply and undersupply, making it expensive to arbitrage regional imbalances. He is skeptical of political fixes, dismissing the Trump-Putin diesel deal as a “drop in the bucket” (roughly 125,000 barrels per day) and warning that a US diesel export ban would be counterproductive, as it would reduce refining incentives and spike global prices. The only durable solutions, he argues, are ending the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Looking ahead, Johnston sees a potential scenario where crude prices fall (even to $60) while diesel remains expensive ($150-$160) due to lingering refining constraints. He notes that the market is still in a deficit of 2-3 million barrels per day, drawing down stockpiles, but believes a resolution to the Iran war could flip crude into oversupply. A key wildcard is China, which could loosen its export quotas and provide critical diesel supply through the winter, as it did in 2022-2023. He also flags that a “Super El Nino” could provide a lucky reprieve by moderating winter demand for heating fuels.

Timestamps

00:00:29 – Introduction: Rory Johnston on energy crisis
00:00:41 – Assessing Middle East supply disruptions
00:01:28 – Impact of high prices on emerging markets
00:02:26 – Shipping rates surge and tanker inefficiency
00:05:20 – Iran attacks on tankers and fleet impact
00:09:56 – Refining capacity crisis and product tightness
00:15:19 – US-Russia diesel deal and export ban debate
00:20:05 – Ukraine refinery attacks and energy truce
00:24:44 – Outlook: product tightness vs crude recovery
00:30:57 – Demand destruction through diesel prices
00:35:36 – Escalation risks and stock drawdowns
00:39:22 – Saudi Arabia’s challenges and Houthi attacks
00:43:03 – Natural gas and LNG market tightness
00:44:46 – Wrap-up and where to follow Rory’s work

Links

https://www.commoditycontext.com/

https://x.com/Rory_Johnston

About the Guest

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.

He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).

Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Bob Moriarty to the show. Bob Moriarty is Author, Founder 321 Gold, & Former Marine Fighter Pilot. The discussion centers on escalating Middle East conflicts, particularly the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the broader geopolitical brinkmanship involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.

Moriarty argues that current events stem not from grand strategy but from human stupidity, as outlined in classic texts on crowd madness. He contends that the U.S. and Israel are waging a voluntary war that serves only to protect political figures like Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump, with no tangible benefit and enormous risks. Saudi Arabia, he suggests, could unilaterally end the conflict by pursuing peace, but its leadership remains blinded by wealth and hubris.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:27 – Middle East Geopolitics Overview
00:04:42 – Houthis Saudi Conflict History
00:09:20 – Saudi Economic Vulnerability Discussed
00:14:02 – Energy Market Implications Analyzed
00:16:48 – Escalation Risks and Politics
00:28:15 – Emerging Global Fuel Shortages
00:34:00 – Europe Energy Crisis Deepens
00:38:24 – Oil Price Outlook and Manipulation
00:44:33 – Gold Role in Crisis
00:54:15 – Gold Reset Concerns Raised
01:05:55 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Website: http://www.321gold.com

Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3

Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors’ current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Trader Ferg to the show. Trader Ferg is a Full-time Trader and is the Author of the Trader Ferg Substack. The discussion opens with a vivid illustration of emerging fuel shortages, as Trader Ferg shares images of long queues at his local petrol station in Bali, a symptom of diesel and product tightness spreading across Asia. He argues that governments avoid admitting scarcity, instead running down strategic reserves, but this dynamic sets the stage for a prolonged “big refill” cycle that will keep crude and refined products tight for years. He cautions that markets are complacently expecting a quick resolution, while the reality points to sustained supply constraints.

Trader Ferg highlights the investment opportunity in underappreciated energy equities, favoring high-quality, cash‑generating companies with strong shareholder yields, such as Shell, over direct commodity futures. He extends this thesis to thermal coal, which he sees benefiting from Asia’s energy security pivot and substitution away from expensive LNG, supported by supply disruptions and a lack of new investment. The conversation then shifts to gold and precious metals. Trader Ferg remains a long‑term gold bull given the deteriorating US fiscal position, but he emphasizes the importance of diversifying into platinum and palladium. PGMs offer tighter supply dynamics, concentrated production in South Africa, and resilient demand from hybrid vehicles, making them less vulnerable to government confiscation risks that could threaten gold.

Throughout, Trader Ferg stresses aligning investment vehicles with long‑term theses, seeking cheap valuations with double‑digit shareholder yields, and avoiding obvious political targets. He notes the non‑consensus nature of energy trades and the potential for explosive moves in compressed markets like coal and uranium. The episode concludes with a nod to frontier market opportunities and a reminder to position ahead of policy desperation, as governments may increasingly resort to windfall taxes and capital controls.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:30 – Fuel Shortages in Asia

00:02:30 – Rationing and Demand Control

00:03:48 – Strategic Reserves Refill

00:06:36 – Product Shortages Spread West

00:10:34 – Sponsor Message

00:11:22 – Energy Investment Opportunities

00:14:20 – Non-Consensus Long-Term Views

00:16:48 – Playing via Equities Quality

00:21:06 – Shareholder Yield Strategy

00:23:32 – Thermal Coal Asia Thesis

00:28:13 – Gold and US Fiscal Risks

00:44:20 – Platinum PGMs Positioning

00:47:04 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Substack: https://traderferg.substack.com/

X: https://x.com/trader_ferg

Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.