Forward Guidance

• Winners & Losers After The Fed’s Dovish Pivot | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss the Fed rate cut and dovish pivot, exacerbating the K-shaped economy, why the dollar could be bottoming, and why gold helps Quinn sleep at night. We also dig into Bitcoin’s correlation to gold, the hollowing out of public markets by private credit, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Origin Summit https://www.originsummit.xyz/ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BX16NXlhxAHHCXiWc9o1EJ2-S20K-sZF/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:38) Origin Summit (04:18) Why Are We Cutting Again? (11:30) Cutting Into a Hot Economy? (13:06) VanEck Ad (13:50) Cutting Into a Hot Economy? (17:16) What’s Next for the Dollar? (21:39) Market Structure & Asset Allocation (26:47) Is the Gold Trade Still Alive? (28:28) VanEck Ad (29:13) Bitcoin vs Gold (33:52) Private vs Public Markets (48:22) Generational and Class Politics (50:50) Optimism for the Future — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• Energy & Trade Wars Are Rewriting the World Order | Helen Thompson

  In this episode, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge Helen Thompson joins the show to discuss how Trump’s trade war, China’s energy and rare earth dominance, the Western Hemisphere’s oil boom, and NATO’s fiscal squeeze are reshaping global power. Enjoy! __ Follow Helen: https://x.com/HelenHet20 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:35) Today’s Geopolitical Landscape (05:49) Parallels in History & China Difference (11:06) VanEck Ad (11:51) What are the Goals of Tariffs? (17:53) Fight Over Energy Commodities (27:45) VanEck Ad (28:25) How Will Energy Divide the World? (33:01) Balancing Debt with Defense Spending (38:43) Threat to Dollar as Reserve Currency (43:45) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• The Data Is Screaming Two-Speed Economy | Weekly Roundup

  This week, Quinn and Tyler cover lighter-than-expected PPI data, the Fed’s shifting focus from inflation to labor, deep labor-market revisions showing a “two-speed” U.S. economy, surging AI/data-center CapEx alongside weakening Main Street, and the concentration risks of mega-cap stocks and buybacks. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ogspUIuKxnHZh7REVA9tKpo7tyPCA52W/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:40) DAS London (02:59) Inflation Update (08:15) No High-Yield Problem (12:11) Rate Cuts vs Inflation (13:40) VanEck Ad (14:24) Rate Cuts vs Inflation (15:40) Problems in the Labor Market (20:35) Small-Caps & Productivity Boom (23:05) Fiscal Dominance & Inflation (26:46) VanEck Ad (27:27) SPX Implied Vol & Market Structure (32:12) AI Boom & CapEx (38:24) Bipolar Market Outcomes (42:17) Centralization vs Diversification (49:11) What’s Next for Markets? (52:56) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• Former Barclays CEO’s Big Bet on Hyperliquid’s Explosive Growth |  Bob Diamond & David Schamis

  In this episode, Founders of Atlas Merchant Capital Bob Diamond and David Schamis discuss their journey from traditional finance to digital assets. They discuss Hyperliquid’s explosive growth, permissionless financial rails, and the innovation of perpetual swaps. We also cover the unique token model with daily buybacks, how Atlas is bringing access to U.S. investors through a new treasury vehicle, and the broader macro backdrop of debt, stablecoins, and institutional adoption of blockchain. Enjoy! __ Follow Bob: https://x.com/rediamondjr Follow David: https://x.com/dschamis Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:54) Backgrounds: Skeptics to Believers (09:14) Hyperliquid Innovations (15:19) VanEck Ad (16:07) The Case for Perps (18:49) Blockchain Benefits (21:43) Public vs Private Blockchains (24:36) Atlas Value Proposition (33:06) VanEck Ad (33:47) Real Cash Flow & Valuation (36:37) Turning Point for Finance? (40:16) US Debt & Stablecoins (44:07) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss all the growing list of weaker labor market data after August NFP showed just 22K jobs added. We also debate whether the Fed will have room to cut 50bps in September while stagflation rears its head, the potential implications if tariffs are overturned, and whether it’s time to be concerned about liquidity and Fed plumbing. Ultimately, everything leads us to one asset. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LyoebYlP0p27AqN4mQKVMH6PuYFi9T73/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:07) Tyler Back to School (02:48) DAS London (04:24) Big Labor Market Week (09:29) NFP Downside Surprise (11:11) VanEck Ad (11:57) NFP Downside Surprise (14:04) September Cut Odds (17:28) Bulled Up on Gold (22:59) VanEck Ad (24:21) Will Tariffs Get Overruled? (28:35) Fed Plumbing Concerns (36:39) Read on the Dollar (39:25) Macro Recap (41:34) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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