Forward Guidance

• The Market Leads The Economy—And It’s Heading Down | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss why markets lead the economy and a drawdown will trigger a recession, the possibility of stagflation & repercussions of low interest rates, and the impact of Trump’s political agenda on markets and the economy. We also delve into the outlook for oil and gold, market skew, OpEx-driven drawdowns, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Supply Shock: https://twitter.com/SupplyShockBW Supply Shock YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupplyShockBW Follow Cem: https://x.com/jam_croissant Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F8U5kLU2L_bITYG3CM6dn8e7X897-CDT/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:44) Macro Overview (05:21) Recession Predictions (07:28) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction (10:42) Skale Ad (11:04) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction (Con't) (14:21) Trump, Populism, & Economic Policy Outlook (24:35) Historical Comparisons (31:50) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations (33:32) Skale Ad (34:03) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations (Con’t) (39:10) Skew Dynamics and Volatility (46:01) Portfolio Allocation Strategies (49:51) Oil and Gold Market Insights (54:23) Final Thoughts OpEx Crumbs — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  59:17
• The Fed's Balance Sheet Plans Are Kryptonite For Risk Assets | Andy Constan

  In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to discuss Quantitative Tightening 2.0, why the Fed wants to change its SOMA portfolio, and the connection between QT, the debt ceiling, and TGA. We also delve into the deficit, DOGE success being anti-growth, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Understanding Quantitative Tightening (QT) 2.0 (10:01) Skale Ad (10:22) Why the Fed Wants to Adjust its SOMA Portfolio (17:50) Potential Market Impacts and Future Strategies (25:17) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (34:51) Skale Ad (35:21) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (Con't) (38:35) Monetary Plumbing, Debt Ceiling Concerns, & Demand for Treasuries (44:03) Impact of Budget Deficit on Issuance & Interest Rates (52:28) Economic Projections and Policy Impacts (01:00:55) Risk Assets and Market Sentiment (01:05:44) Is There A Bond Trade? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  1:10:09
• Unpacking The Fed & Treasury’s Master Plan | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss the big takeaways from the Fed Meeting Minutes, Bessent’s remarks on Treasury issuance and inflation, and the near-term liquidity picture. We also delve into oil and energy policy, the limited upside in crypto right now, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ziABEksWyIgTom9idgy5HhVyThbd3Kyb/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) FOMC Meeting Minutes (06:29) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (16:20) Skale Ad (16:42) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (Con't) (20:15) Inflation Data and Fed's Perspective (22:41) Skale Ad (23:12) Liquidity Concerns and QT (27:07) Inflation and Economic Growth (29:11) Oil & Global Energy Policies (32:21) Microsoft CEO's Take on AI and CapEx (33:43) Yen & DAX (38:09) Crypto Market Update __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  48:19
• Volatility Hedge Fund Manager Unpacks Derivatives Misconceptions | Benn Eifert

  In this episode, Benn Eifert joins the show to discuss derivative & volatility strategies, the biggest derivatives misconceptions, and flaws with Stephen Miran’s tariff arguments. We also delve into volatility risk under the Trump administration, how to think about VIX percentage moves, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Benn Eifert: https://x.com/bennpeifert Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:32) Understanding Volatility-Focused Hedge Funds (04:12) Tools and Strategies in Volatility Trading (11:21) The Rise of Derivative-Based ETFs (19:03) Skale Ad (19:27) The Rise of Derivative-Based ETFs (Con't) (27:15) Risks and Misconceptions in Retail Options Trading (32:06) Skale Ad (32:36) Risks and Misconceptions in Retail Options Trading (Con’t) (37:09) Options Trading (41:07) Implied Probabilities and Market Misconceptions (44:17) The Reality of Options Pricing Models (47:06) Impact of Derivatives on the Market (57:47) Navigating Volatility in the Trump Era (01:01:01) Debating the Merits of Tariffs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  1:10:56
• Is Trump Actually Good For Markets? | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss the latest CPI data, how the Trump administration will balance economic vs market success, and the constant economic headfakes. We also delve into how the government kicks the can without QE, MicroStrategy holding up Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kJjbC4s7DKMR3nU0_6C242oEhrfYH67O/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:03) Analyzing the Latest CPI Data (10:56) Tariffs, Trade, and Economic Headfakes (16:53) Skale Ad (17:15) Tariffs, Trade, and Economic Headfakes (Con't) (29:34) Skale Ad (30:04) Roundup Continues (32:51) Liquidity Concerns (34:49) The SLR Exemption Debate (42:59) Crypto, Bitcoin Strength, & Michael Saylor's Influence (48:57) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  1:02:45

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