Forward Guidance

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to break down why markets may be leaving the Fed-driven era behind, how private credit and bank balance sheets are becoming the real engine of growth, and what massive AI and onshoring investments mean for rates, risk, and the business cycle going forward. Enjoy! __ Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) The Shift From The Fed To Private Credit (05:50) Push Vs Pull Demand For Credit (08:47) Grayscale Ad (09:25) Money Vs Credit (17:28) The Loop Of Spending & Savings (27:04) Grayscale Ad (27:51) Is The New Credit Flywheel A Policy Choice? (32:00) Impact On Investment & Consumption (35:19) Moving Back To A Traditional Business Cycle (38:52) Historical Disruptions Vs Today (44:05) Do Assets Go Higher In This New Regime? (53:04) Foreign Capital Flows & Trade Deficits (01:01:47) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Tony Greer joins the show to break down why the metals trade still feels early, whether oil finally catches a bid in 2026, why AI could be in its last innings, and what Bitcoin’s frustrating price action is quietly telling traders. We also unpack how to think about managing risk and Tony’s advice for 2026. Enjoy! __ Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx TG Macro Conference: https://tgmacro.com/conference/ __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:11) TG MACRO Conference (04:38) 2025 Recap & 2026 Expectations (08:34) The Precious Metals Trade (14:29) Grayscale Ad (15:06) Where Does Oil Go In 2026? (17:08) Biggest 2026 Trading Themes (21:49) Metals & The Debasement Trade (23:02) Late Innings Of The AI Trade (24:46) Grayscale Ad (25:35) We’re Still In A Bull Market (30:11) Bitcoin’s Disappointment (33:06) Trading Bubbles (34:05) Advice For 2026 (36:01) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss why disinflation and Goldilocks conditions persist into early 2026, and where the real risks may flip from cooling to overheating. We also explore his outlook on bonds, equities, commodities, and the policy trade-offs beneath a K-shaped economy. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren: https://x.com/WarrenPies  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance  — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:46) 2025 Wins & Misses (07:48) What Drives Rates In 2026 (13:00) Grayscale Ad (13:37) Inflation Deep Dive (18:47) Labor Market & Housing (22:59) The K-Shaped Fed Cycle (29:50) Grayscale Ad (30:37) Fed Balance Sheet (35:06) Active Treasury Issuance (37:46) Equities In 2026 (45:20) Commodities Heating Up (48:13) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Harris (Kuppy) Kupperman joins Tyler to discuss why markets may look strong, but beneath the surface they’re being run for asset holders, not workers. We explore how policy choices, market structure, and AI hype are driving asset-driven feudalism. Enjoy! — Follow Kuppy: https://x.com/kuppyskorner Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Kuppy’s Feudalism Piece: https://pracap.com/feudalism/ — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:35) Economic Feudalism (06:51) Why Is Wage Growth Bad? (09:14) Malice Or Negligence? (12:28) Grayscale Ad (13:06) Global Feudalism (18:27) How Does This Unwind? (22:07) No Uses For Productive Capital (25:46) Positioning For Political Revolution (31:05) Grayscale Ad (31:52) Where Do You Invest? (38:27) Biggest Story In Macro (41:50) The Problems With US Allocators (48:50) Fixing Incentives & Finding The Bull Market (53:50) AI Boom Winners & Losers (57:27) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, the Market Radar team joins the show to discuss why markets have struggled to trend, how Market Radar’s models navigate slowdowns versus true risk-off regimes, and what growth, inflation, and liquidity signals are actually saying beneath the headlines. We also cover finding real macro signals from the noise and their predictions for 2026. Enjoy! __ Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:29) Risk-Off Pivot (07:28) Unpacking System Triggers (12:26) Grayscale Ad (13:05) Regime Map: Growth vs Inflation Impulses (17:13) Inflation Expectations (23:02) Debasement & K-Shaped Economy (25:17) Finding Signal From Conflicting Inputs (32:17) Grayscale Ad (33:04) The Right Way To Think About Liquidity (40:36) 2026 Rate Cut Predictions (47:46) Economic Outlook & Being Systematic (50:49) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance