Forward Guidance

In this episode, we explore how a sudden oil shock and geopolitical conflict can quickly rewrite the global macro outlook, forcing markets and policymakers into a difficult balancing act between inflation and growth.

We sit down with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to unpack how the Iran-driven oil shock fits into today’s fragile, savings-driven economy.

We discuss oil shocks past and present, policy sequencing, bond market reactions, global currency impacts, and why markets may be underestimating the second-order effects of rising energy prices. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:30 Oil Shock Challenges & Today vs 2022

10:13 Contrasting the 2008 & 1970s Oil Shocks

15:15 The Energy Shock Impact on Households

19:16 How Will Central Banks & Bonds React?

29:50 Ads (Arkham)

30:38 Oil Shock Sequence of Events

32:28 Iran War's Asymmetric Regional Impact

39:00 What Happens to Gold?

42:02 Understanding a Wartime Economy

46:36 Final Thoughts

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EVENTS

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SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

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Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode, we explore the fog of war in markets, where geopolitics and volatility scramble investors’ assumptions.

Quinn and Felix break down the macro landscape, analyzing war narratives, energy shocks, and shifting expectations for growth, jobs, and Fed policy.

We debate oil spikes, dollar strength, bonds, gold, options positioning, and hidden risks from agriculture to private credit. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(02:46) Iran War Update

(08:08) Jobs Data, Bonds and Economic Deterioration

(15:22) Asymmetric Iran Impact - US vs Europe/Asia

(21:30) Market Structure - Everyone Owns Puts

(26:35) Ads (Arkham)

(27:23) How Will Iran War Impact Rates and the Economy?

(36:21) SPR Drawdown and Trump’s Strategic Position

(47:19) People Ignoring Agriculture Complex

(51:45) Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

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› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC (March 24–26)

› Use code FORWARD200 for $200 off

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/14CFRydeUqk52UXPBW30wt-rcK5tuL-oK/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto. exchange and blockchainanalytics platform that allows traders and investors to look. inside the wallets of the besttraders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to. buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, Eric Wallerstein, explores how shifting geopolitics, Trump-era monetary policy, and structural economic forces are reshaping global macro. We cover tariffs, the dollar, Iran-driven market shocks, Fed balance sheet strategy, and the future of bank regulation. Along the way, we also unpack AI productivity, repo market fragility, and why Latin America could be the next macro frontier. Enjoy!

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026

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Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here:

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Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.

Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:48) Eric's Wild Year At the Fed

(07:26) Tariffs And The Role of the Dollar

(14:15) Iran War Market Fallout

(19:46) The Energy Shock vs Growth & Rates

(24:55) Unpacking The "Donroe Doctrine"

(31:29) Ads (Coinbase, Arkham)

(33:12) Buying The Americas

(35:56) Fixing The Fed Balance Sheet

(40:29) Repairing Repo

(43:23) The Coming Warsh Era

(47:56) Productivity Growth vs The Fed

(54:00) The Fed's Duration Plan & The Treasury-Fed Accord

(58:06) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

This week, we explore how the Iran escalation is stress-testing a fragile, late-cycle financial system already stretched by years of easy liquidity. We examine oil volatility, energy chokepoints, bonds failing as safe havens, and the growing risk that geopolitics could trigger a broader liquidity event. We also discuss AI CapEx, private credit stress, political tensions, and the shifting structure of global markets. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026

__

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lfBw2XOxnBjJSXeAmO8dmxrDicZuOQry/view?usp=sharing

—

Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here:

https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG

Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.

Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

—

Timestamps

(00:00) Intro

(06:49) Monitoring The Iran Situation

(13:05) Market Risks Building

(22:30) Market Headwinds, K-Shaped Economy, No Safe Havens

(28:33) Ad Break (Coinbase, Arkham)

(30:14) Fed Cuts And Late-Cycle Behavior

(33:04) AI CapEx, LNG Risks, Hegemony Blow-Off Top

(40:33) Bonds Are Dying

(45:43) The Beginning of the End?

(52:14) Midterms And Bipartisan Failures

(57:52) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

In this first episode of Inflection Point, we explore the accelerating convergence between traditional finance and crypto as institutional adoption begins reshaping the foundations of global financial infrastructure. The conversation examines ETFs, DeFi innovation, market structure shifts, institutional flows, and how evolving investor behavior is changing Bitcoin and digital asset markets. Along the way, we discuss regulation, credit markets, technology limitations, and the broader implications of finance moving onchain. Enjoy!

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Inflection Point:

Apple 🎙️: https://bit.ly/3QKdX5a

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YouTube 🎥: https://link.blockworks.co/46Cee2q

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Follow David: ⁠⁠https://x.com/dlawant⁠⁠

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code INFLECTION200 for $200 OFF!

⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026⁠⁠

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Timestamps

(00:00) Intro To Inflection Point

(06:48) The Convergence Between TradFi & Crypto

(22:20) Crypto's Biggest Advantages & Hurdles

(36:15) Crypto's Changing Market Structure

(41:00) Prices, Sentiment & Long-Term Allocators

(46:00) Evolution Of Crypto Options & Yield

(51:30) Is The 4-Year Cycle Dead?

(01:02:00) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Inflection Point is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Crypto #DeFi #Bitcoin #Blockchain #DigitalAssets #CryptoPodcast