Forward Guidance

This week we discuss whether the Fed made the right decision, the post-FOMC volatility spike, and the China risk to markets. We also delve into the labor market, the 1998 framework for today’s economy, 2025 expectations, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DPQNetklHAXhw6bAJwRkD0qjeuE0klyk/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (03:03) Why The Fed Did The Right Thing (06:36) Is Inflation Rolling Over? (12:01) Trump Policy Impact (14:16) Explaining The Volatility Spike (20:02) 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook (22:02) Mapping The Market Rotation (27:43) VIX & Market Positioning (31:46) China Risk (33:42) Ads (35:36) Systematic Volatility (37:50) China Structural Issues & Stimulus (39:54) Bond Yields Vs Equities (43:31) 2025 Rate Cutting Path (46:54) Labor Market & Supply Shocks (51:04) Economic Optimism & Lending (52:35) Growth & Oil Outlook (54:58) Bessent Economic Plan (57:15) 1998 Framework (59:55) Productive Capacity Boom (01:03:04) End-Of-Year Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he’s bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:44) Hawkish FOMC Conference (06:21) Immigration Impact (09:50) 2025 Surprises (12:34) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (15:01) What Is The Fed Thinking? (20:25) Peak Hawkishness (21:59) Long-Term Rates (23:25) SEP As A Psychological Tool (25:34) Ads (27:27) Fed Surveys & Politics (29:15) The Neutral Rate (31:13) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness (32:57) Reverse Repo (38:38) Treasury Coupon Issuance (40:25) Equities & The Dollar (44:01) Gold & Crypto (45:54) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation (50:28) Main Takeaways __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the small cap trade, the upcoming Fed decision, and whether inflation risks are overblown. We also delve into China’s balance sheet recession, Bitcoin & MicroStrategy, housing affordability, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qTKN9-iNXNqFBgZSx03BFmi24BiaCeQv/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:31) Small Business Optimism & Trump Trades (07:58) Mag7 Blow Off Top? (09:42) Unwind In Momentum Factor (11:18) China Balance Sheet Recession (13:34) Small Caps, Liquidity, & The Dollar (15:30) Dovish Fed (16:51) Labor Market & Claims (21:38) Fed Policy & Global Easing (26:00) Rate Steepening (27:13) Ads (29:15) Trump Peace Dividend (32:51) Inflation & CPI (36:22) Continuing Goldilocks (39:52) Bitcoin (43:50) MicroStrategy & Convert Financing (50:53) Vol Controllers (53:48) Geopolitics (55:23) Cash Bubble (57:07) New Credit Cycle (59:17) Housing Affordability __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Warren Mosler joins the show to discuss the counterintuitive impact of that Federal Funds rate, the impact of government spending, and the economics of trade and tariffs. We also delve into the shifting duration of US debt, whether deficits matter, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren Mosler: https://x.com/wbmosler Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:41) Warren’s Macro Overview (06:19) Understanding The Neutral Rate (14:16) Fed Funds & Inflation (21:14) Rate Cuts Are Cooling Inflation (22:54) Ads (25:02) Rate Hikes Are Stimulative (27:32) Deficit Spending Is Money Printing (28:27) Taxes & Government Spending (31:56) The Effect Of Monetary Acronyms (34:29) The K-Shaped Economy (37:29) Zero Rate & Asset Bubbles (39:05) Politics & The Oil Market (41:29) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (49:41) Taxes, Unemployment, & Financing More Stuff (56:38) Does The Deficit Matter? (58:42) Impact Of Shifting Debt Duration (01:01:14) The Bid For Duration (01:04:57) Warren’s Trading __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.