Forward Guidance

• Inflation Expectations Are Already Unanchored | Weekly Roundup

  This week, Danny Dayan joins the show to discuss his “Doom Loop” of factors weakening the dollar and increasing inflation, why inflation expectations are unanchored, and the importance of remaining nimble in fast-moving markets. We also delve into how we’re seeing equities, rate cuts, and bonds through 2025, whether the Fed can rescue growth, why the inflation problem is worse than the growth problem and more. Enjoy! — Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:40) Beware the Doom Loop (13:21) Ondo Ad (13:48) Dollar Weakness or Normalization? (16:15) Dollar & Bonds (23:13) Hard Data & The Doom Loop (25:06) Real Rates & Inflation (31:48) Ondo Ad (32:17) Inflation Expectations Are Unanchored (38:13) Trading The Current Regime (47:24) Gold Market (49:18) Having Perspective In Fast-Moving Markets (55:06) Can the Fed Rescue Growth? (59:32) Inflation is the Bigger Problem (09:30) What Will the Fed Do? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

  25-4-2025  

  1:16:19
• The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes

  In this episode, Arthur Hayes joins the show to discuss Trump’s slew of concessions sending markets higher, the evolving US-China strategy, and Bitcoin decoupling from US assets as tariffs reduce the US capital account surplus. We also delve into Treasury buybacks, the Fed & SLR exemption, potential catalysts that would trigger QE, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Arthur: https://x.com/CryptoHayes Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:47) Trump Agenda & Concessions (07:06) Tariffs & US-China Strategy (13:39) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (14:50) Bitcoin Decoupling & Changing Trade Flows (19:33) Fiscal Levers & Global Liquidity (25:26) Treasury Buybacks (30:49) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (32:04) Powell & The Fed (34:43) SLR & Big Banks (37:30) What Would Trigger QE? (41:55) Structural Bid In Gold __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

  23-4-2025  

  47:11
• US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss Powell’s hawkish speech, how to think about trading tariffs and the weaponization of the US account deficit, and whether we should expect a significant growth slowdown. We also delve into rate cuts & the yield curve, why Bitcoin is the trade after the trade, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hLnf2szLRxPcUkIJwPyj34UbhHadON69/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:45) Recent Fed Remarks (06:26) Macro View and Tariff Trades (16:27) Ondo Ad (16:52) Market Positioning and Growth Slowdown (27:30) Debating Growth & the Yield Curve (35:30) Ondo Ad (36:01) Debating Growth & the Yield Curve (Con't) (36:59) Equities & Government Spending (41:44) Bitcoin: The Trade After the Trade — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

  18-4-2025  

  53:24
• Why Systematic Macro Outperforms Discretionary | Market Radar

  In this episode, Arty & Gamma from the Market Radar team join the show to discuss their macro models and the importance of systematic trading, how they’re thinking about global markets today, and how deficits and tariffs are complicating the Fed’s cutting plans. We also delve into lessons for discretionary traders, what Market Radar wants to see to turn risk-on, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Market Radar Models (04:12) Systematic vs Discretionary Macro (07:23) Market Radar Systematic Approach (14:31) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (15:42) Lessons for Discretionary Traders (20:58) Weaknesses of Systematic Macro (24:06) Argument Against Shorting (27:57) Current Market Outlook (34:13) Current Market Outlook (Con't) (34:22) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (37:00) The Fed & Deficits (46:42) Conditions to Turn Risk-On (49:07) Catching Tops & Bottoms (52:09) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

  17-4-2025  

  53:06
• BOTTOM IS IN, Says Trader Who Predicted The Crash | Mel Mattison

  In this episode, Mel Mattison joins the show to discuss why he thinks we’re on the cusp of another inflationary bubble, the danger of growing entitlement obligations, and what more yield curve distortions mean for markets. We also delve into how gold could be on track for $50,000/oz, how all this will impact the FX market, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Mel: https://x.com/MelMattison1 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:35) Mel’s Spot-on Market Predictions (06:30) Macro Drivers of the Market Downturn (09:04) Treasury Data and Fiscal Impulse (13:36) Ondo Ad (14:01) Treasury Data and Fiscal Impulse (Con't) (15:39) The Anti-Dollar Trade (23:28) Social Security and Long-Term Economic Outlook (28:47) Trump Admin’s Grand Agenda (34:37) Federal Reserve and Inflation (35:54) Ondo Ad (36:24) Bond Market and Yield Curve Distortion (39:32) Yield Curve Distortions & Inflation (52:52) Currencies and Emerging Markets (57:57) Gold & Bitcoin __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

  16-4-2025  

  1:01:21

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