Magic Numbers

Few days before the new set releases on Arena - why not see our vision of draft format before starting to draft? Our eccentric, deck-centric set review is back. We look at format stats, design vision and then instead of grading individual cards we propose 40 card decks skeletons to showcase what we see in each color pair. This time we have
Tresio
https://x.com/Tresio/
and Rosemary Tea
https://x.com/TheRosemaryTea/
And we are in for an interesting discussion. MSH looks like a jazz improvisation set rather thn paint-by-numbers drafting prevalent in the last few sets and I am all in for it. It is also a polar opposite of SOS - a creature and permanent centered design after instant and sorcery themed SOS so expect to re-evaluate your evaluations.
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⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Episode #187
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This week we are trying something new. A journal club. And the reason for it is very simple - there are not that many Magic-related scientific papers out there. But last week Jess Williams and Zev Goldhaber-Gordon released a very interesting paper on opening hands, land percentages, mulliganing and mana flood. 
I invited both authors to talk about their findings and what implications they have for Magic players. We will be talking about BO3 mulligan rates, links between player win rate and mulligan rate, causes for any trends in that. We will also look at a neat method of estimating optimal land composition, and impact of both mana screw and flood. 
Jess and Zev are both PhD students with impressive scientific pedigree, but also Magic players with notable successes under their belts, so they combine the rigour needed for those sorts of analyses with understanding of the game. 
You can follow them here:
Jess Williams:
https://x.com/mtg_jess
Zev Goldhaber-Gordon: https://bsky.app/profile/zergog.bsky.social
And - most importantly find the paper here in its simplified version (the link to the full paper can be found in there too):
https://medium.com/@mtg_jess/opening-hand-evaluation-in-limited-executive-summary-8360a819e2e6

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⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Episode #186⁠⁠
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This week we say goodbye to SOS and sending it off through testing some new deck clustering approach. This time it is capable of distinguishing sub-color pair builds. And this opens new possibilities of analysing limited data. What happens when a color(pair) is not open? Can we see the symptoms of drfting based on the 1st picks? I think that we can. The method I used here is experimental but based on this pilot run, I will incorporate it (and much earlier in the format) for other sets. Key aspect of this episode is testing the novel approach so be generous with comments and suggestions!

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⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Episode #185⁠
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Card win rates can be misleading if you don't look at them with some amount of granularity. Two color pairs have a very different base win rate? Card played in both can look middling. Card is only good in one color pair but is routinely played in many? Win rate can look bad. To start correctly assessing card power using data to add extra context is crucial. And if you do it well, you might discover some plans for each color pair that will otherwise remain hidden. Today you can see which card from SOS plays well in which of the colleges. But I will also show you how looking at the win rates of Strixhaven Skycoach and supplementing it with knowledge of the format can point you to less obvious conclusions related to the format.

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⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Episode #184
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New set is upon us, and it plays out sweet in Limited. I look at the early 17Lands data in order to figure out what works, what doesn't. But for this one, I think the more important thing is: what are the rules of engagement. What do you have to do in this format in order to start winning that is not typical for all formats. Hopefully the way I present the data will help you figuring that part out.
Remember that looking at card win rates will give you a quick boost in your personal win rate, but understanding the format, getting to grasp its philosophy will set you off on the long-term winning streak, independently of how the format corrects in the future.
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⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Episode #183⁠⁠⁠⁠
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