The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

This week's Frankly is another in a recurring series, Uncomfortable Questions in Unsettled Times, where Nate poses questions about our shared future. Today he focuses on the unfolding crisis in the Persian Gulf, unpacking hidden implications that aren't covered by the headlines. Nate opens by examining how behind-the-scenes geopolitical decisions at the highest level create a widespread ripple effect – influencing everything from oil production to water desalination to fertilizer and food systems. He considers the risk of continued geopolitical conflict as global alliances shift, as well as the potential impact on the global economic order.
This week's main focus, however, is the deeper systemic change underway. Nate evaluates how energy access and shifting means of modern warfare could reshape the global power dynamics – he asks uncomfortable questions about the possibility of tactical nuclear weapons, the erosion of (inter)national trust, and what it even means to "win" in a global conflict in the first place. He then zooms out even further, describing a potential geographic bifurcation of the global economic Superorganism, where the East "decouples" from the Western financial and energy systems that have long been the backbone of the global order. Nate closes with a consideration of how future climate outcomes might be shaped by war-driven energy decisions today, as well as highlighting how individuals and communities might respond very differently than nations do in the face of energy disruption.
What hidden risks in energy and supply chains are still going unnoticed? How might shifting alliances and energy access redefine global power? And if the Hormuz situation is a 'dress rehearsal' of the future, where might individuals and societies consider changing their expectations and actions today?
(Recorded April 2nd, 2026)
 
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As the war in Iran creates chaos in every domain of life, the already-fragile energy systems of many countries find themselves on the brink of crisis after spending decades investing in natural gas infrastructure, largely supplied by Middle Eastern countries. With projected natural gas prices now spiking across the world, a growing number of nations are re-prioritizing energy security over energy convenience – calling into question the types of electricity generation needed for their citizens as they look to the coming decades. Could this lead to calls for a nuclear power revival in the West, and if so, would Western countries have the capacity to build such complex infrastructure? 
In this episode, Nate welcomes back Dr. Chris Keefer, president of Canadians for Nuclear Energy and host of the Decouple podcast, for an impromptu exploration of the possible role of nuclear power for energy security amidst destabilizing supply chains and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Looking back to the energy shocks of the 1970s, Chris highlights how these disruptions reshaped electricity generation globally, including the rapid expansion of nuclear power for several countries, such as Europe, the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, and Pakistan. But without the energetic, material, and civic availability of fifty years ago, Chris calls into question whether most free-market based countries would be able to coordinate and effectively respond in the same way today. Ultimately, both Chris and Nate highlight how energy security is reshaping every aspect of our lives as we are forced to adapt to a world of lower material throughput. 
Why is nuclear power such a potent piece of energy infrastructure – resulting in cheap, abundant electricity when built correctly? How are the health impacts of nuclear power accidents misunderstood, and do the risks outweigh the benefits? And ultimately, does society today possess the political, financial, technological, and institutional capacity required to build and sustain large-scale nuclear systems?
 
About Chris Keefer:
Dr. Chris Keefer MD, CCFP-EM is the host of the Decouple podcast, where he explores the most pressing questions in energy, climate, environment, politics, and philosophy. Additionally, he is a practicing emergency physician in Toronto, a medical instructor, and a lifelong advocate for social and environmental causes. Chris is also the founder and president of the grassroots non-profit Canadians for Nuclear Energy, as well as the Director of Doctors for Nuclear Energy.
 
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In this episode, Nate offers a personal reflection on the unfolding geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, beginning with an examination of how disruptions to fossil fuel flows propagate through the global economy, but with a time lag. He points out how many of the world's countries rely heavily on imported fossil fuels, as well as the potential impact on California's already high gas prices. Nate also contrasts the relative insulation of those in the United States with the far greater exposure of those living in Asia, Europe, and Africa, outlining how second- and third-order effects are already emerging in the form of conservation measures, rationing, and shifting daily behaviors.
Alongside this structural analysis, Nate turns to the lived experiences of people navigating changing conditions in real time. He shares stories from listeners on this platform, highlighting how proximity and awareness shape the ways in which individuals and communities respond to the more-than-human predicament. Nate concludes by outlining the biophysical phase shift that is quickly emerging, in which financial systems, material realities, and human expectations begin to diverge and require new forms of adaptation at all scales.
How might the impacts of current conflicts ripple into your own community, and on what timeline? Where might we shift our behaviors, mindsets, priorities, or attention to better respond as systemic changes continue to unfold? Have you considered time as one of our fastest-depleting resources?
(Recorded March 25th, 2025)
 
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The conversation around artificial intelligence has been captured by two competing narratives – techno-abundance or civilizational collapse – both of which sidestep the question of who this technology is actually being built for. But if we consider that we are setting the initial conditions for everything that follows, we might realize that we are in a pivotal moment for AI development which demands a deeper cultural conversation about the type of future we actually want. What would it look like to design AI for the benefit of the 99%, and what are the necessary steps to make that possible?
In this episode, Nate welcomes back Tristan Harris, co-founder of the Center for Humane Technology, for a wide-ranging conversation on AI futures and safety. Tristan explains how his organization pivoted from social media to AI risks after insiders at AI labs warned him in early 2023 that a dangerous step-change in capabilities was coming – and with it, risks that are orders of magnitude larger. Tristan outlines the economic and psychological consequences already unfolding under AI's race-to-the-bottom engagement incentives, as well as the major threat categories we face: including massive wealth concentration, government surveillance, and the very real risk that humanity loses meaningful control of AI systems in critical domains. He also shares about his involvement in the new documentary, The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist, and ultimately highlights the highest-leverage areas in the movement toward safer AI development.
If we start seeing AI risks clearly without surrendering to despair, could we regain the power to steer toward safer technological futures? What would it mean to design AI around human wellbeing rather than engagement, attention, and profit? And can we cultivate the kind of shared cultural reckoning that makes collective action possible – before it's too late?
(Conversation recorded on March 5th, 2025) 

 
About Tristan Harris:
Tristan is the Co-Founder of the Center for Humane Technology (CHT), a nonprofit organization whose mission is to align technology with humanity's best interests. He is also the co-host of the top-rated technology podcast Your Undivided Attention, where he, Aza Raskin, and Daniel Barclay explore the unprecedented power of emerging technologies and how they fit into both our lives and a humane future. Previously, Tristan was a Design Ethicist at Google, and today he studies how major technology platforms wield dangerous power over our ability to make sense of the world and leads the call for systemic change.
In 2020, Tristan was featured in the two-time Emmy-winning Netflix documentary The Social Dilemma. The film unveiled how social media is dangerously reprogramming our brains and human civilization. It reached over 100 million people in 190 countries across 30 languages. He regularly briefs heads of state, technology CEOs, and US Congress members, in addition to mobilizing millions of people around the world through mainstream media. 
Most recently, Tristan was featured in the 2026 documentary, The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist, which is available in theaters on March 27th. Learn more about Tristan's work and get involved at the Center for Humane Technology.
Join The Human Movement now at HUMAN.MOV


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This week's Frankly marks a turning point in the work of The Great Simplification. Having spent twenty years articulating the more-than-human predicament, Nate shifts from diagnosis to direction as current events – including conflict in the Strait of Hormuz – accelerate the timeline. Today Nate shares a first-pass framework for action and response that's organized around what to do now, which could be applied to various places and at multiple scales. 
The framework begins with a personal foundation of inner work: stabilizing the nervous system, recapturing a sense of agency, doing grief work, and cultivating inner calmness as a precondition for effective action. Nate also emphasizes the need to build trusted networks and shared language so that when disruptions arrive, communities aren't starting conversations from scratch. These two layers set the foundation for six broad fronts of intervention: infrastructure and physical stock-and-flow planning, poverty and displacement, ecological defense and regeneration, civic resilience and governance, culture and meaning, and economic transition toward commons-based and post-growth models. Nate stresses that these fronts are interdependent and not contingent on a single scenario – they hold across various possible scenarios for the future. 
Nate also introduces a timeline axis of three overlapping phases, which build upon each other to shape the conditions of our future: the current stability window where building is still possible, the period of triage and "bend not break," and the stable attractor that gives direction to the work of the first two. Nate closes with an observation about leadership: that modern systems select for dark triad traits, and that reluctance to lead may itself be a signal worth heeding. 
What do you currently do with your time? Which of these six areas of engagement feels the most accessible to you right now? And where in your networks do you see the beginnings of shared language and trust that could support coordinated response?
(Recorded March 17th, 2026)
 
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