Barclays Brief

Markets have been anything but calm lately. Inflation shocks, surging energy prices and the AI narrative have collided to deliver one of the most dramatic periods in rates markets in years, forcing investors to rethink interest‑rate paths in real time.
In Europe and the UK, that reassessment has been especially stark. Expectations for rate cuts have rapidly flipped to pricing further hikes, with the Bank of England at the centre of the storm. Gilt yields have surged to levels last seen during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, while German yields have climbed to post‑sovereign‑crisis highs. What began as an energy shock has quickly morphed into a bond‑market shock, lifting borrowing costs for households and businesses alike and delivering a renewed wave of financial whiplash for mortgage holders.
Against this already fragile backdrop, markets were whipsawed yet again by a single social‑media post, triggering sharp reversals across rates, equities and commodities in the space of hours.
So how do you trade through volatility of this magnitude? Which signals still matter when headlines dominate price action? And how do inflation risks, AI‑driven narratives and crowded positioning interact in today’s market structure?
To make sense of it all, Patrick Coffey is joined by Hamza Hoummady, Head of EMEA Rates Trading, for a wide‑ranging discussion on what is driving today’s unprecedented moves, how this episode compares with past crises, and what investors should be watching next.
Listeners can hear more on this topic:​
•Episode 23: A bullish view on US equities
•Episode 22: Processing uncertainty in real time
•Episode 16: Forces shaping markets in 2026
Clients can read more on Barclays Live:
•Recovery delayed redux
•On hold, holding on
•Ides of March
•Dueling mandates
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Markets may look relatively steady compared with past oil shocks, but the real story sits in the undercurrents. Despite only a modest pullback in major indices, the Iran‑linked shock has sparked some of the sharpest sector rotations in years as fast‑moving capital unwinds crowded trades and reprices global risk.
In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined once again by Alex Altmann, Head of Equity Tactical Strategies, to break down what’s really moving markets: crowded international trades unwinding, energy‑importing regions under pressure, and liquidity mismatches accelerating the rotation.
They also dig into the commodity complex, hit hard as investors absorbed significant losses, and explore why structural forces such as US-China decoupling, strategic reserve building, and critical minerals demand still support a compelling multi‑month (and potentially multi‑year) thematic opportunity.
Ultimately, the conversation asks: what are market internals signalling that headline indices fail to show?
From energy‑price anxiety and shifting Fed expectations to private credit concerns, join Patrick and Alex as they assess the pressures facing investors and why strong US corporate margins, healthier private‑sector balance sheets, and powerful AI‑driven capex trends continue to underpin a resilient, fundamentally bullish backdrop for US risk assets.
Listeners can hear more on this topic:​
• Metals & mining: meltdown or opportunity?
• Is US equities exceptionalism finally cracking?
Clients can read more on Barclays Live:
• Framework for Modeling AI Demand & Supply – Capex 'Peak' Likely in 2028
• Energy Sigma - Snowball effect
• Equity Market Review - Waiting for the Trump put
• The Long & Short of It - Conflict hits, conviction slips

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Volatility has returned, and markets are recalibrating risk premia as new sources of uncertainty emerge across oil, inflation expectations, private credit and the AI investment cycle.
In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler speaks with Ajay Rajadhyaksha to break down how markets are processing this uncertainty, and the transmission mechanisms that matter most for the medium-term path.
They explore how investors are interpreting elevated oil prices and what sustained higher prices could mean for inflation expectations, as well as why private credit concerns remain slow moving rather than systemic. They also examine the structural tailwinds from AI, where hyperscaler CapEx and breakthrough adoption rates may continue to anchor long run productivity and growth.
As the conversation tracks the market reaction to the escalating conflict in Iran and other recent headline shifts, Ronnie and Ajay focus on the observable indicators and signals shaping the medium-term outlook.
Clients can read more on Barclays Live:
Middle East Escalation Hub
When it rains...
Barclays Equity Factor Insights: March 2026
Takeaways From Anthropic's Enterprise Agent Event
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Weight loss drugs have pushed the obesity therapeutics market to an inflection point, reshaping not only patient behaviour, healthcare spending and investor expectations, but also potentially the global economic outlook, as lower obesity rates could promise higher productivity and reduced long term healthcare costs.
In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey speaks with Emily Field, Head of US Biopharmaceuticals Equity Research, to break down the forces driving this shift.
They pinpoint the key accelerants: the arrival of oral versions, rapid uptake among consumers, shifting cash‑pay models, intensifying pricing pressure, and fierce competition facing the early leaders.
At the core, the episode answers this question: as these medicines move from specialist treatments to mass‑market consumer products, how will they reshape the market and determine who wins economically?
They also look ahead to the sector’s next phase, from ex‑US adoption and earnings signals to new entrants, combination therapies and future applications in areas such as addiction.
Clients can read more on Barclays Live:
• There’s no place like home; initiating coverage on U.S. Biopharmaceuticals
• Brave New World: Goodbye MFN, Hello Pipeline
• Protein Boom: Be prepared…
Survey source: KFF Health Tracking Poll
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Software equities sit in the eye of the AI storm, caught at a decisive inflection point as AI reshapes the sector and investors grapple with one of the sharpest valuation resets in years. ​
In Episode 20 of the Barclays Brief, Raimo Lenschow, Head of North American Software Research, joins Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution, to explore what’s driving the sell‑off and why the long‑term software story remains far from written.​
The discussion examines the forces behind the recent repricing, from the arrival of real, market‑ready GenAI products to intensifying concerns around hyperscaler CapEx, overbuild risk and shifting competitive dynamics. While headlines point to sweeping disruption, Raimo argues that AI is not ending software — it’s redefining the stack and reshaping where value accrues.​
At the centre of the episode is a simple but critical question: as AI accelerates change across software, what genuinely matters — and what’s being overstated?​
Raimo and Ronnie also discuss what could shape the sector’s next phase, from how valuations may stabilise to the long, often underappreciated migration timelines that anchor enterprise technology decisions.​
Listen in for a grounded perspective on where fear may be overstated, where selectivity matters most, and how investors can think about durability and opportunity as AI continues to reshape the software landscape​
Listeners can hear more on this topic:​​
Barclays Brief #14 – Rise of the humanoid robots​
Barclays Brief #12 – The future of mobility​
Barclays Brief #4 – AI revolution: China’s five year plan​

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​
Software Is Not Dead, Just Changing ​
How to play AI dislocation?​
Agentic AI Disruption Risk in Focus​

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