"Moment of Zen"

• The Real Reason Civilizations Collapse | Samo Burja

  Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg talks with Samo Burja on "long history" - the thesis that human civilization is far older than believed, with complex societies predating agriculture by millennia. It examines why civilizations rise and fall, and implications for preventing our own collapse. Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @SamoBurja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- Long History Thesis Human civilization is much older than believed - complex societies existed before agriculture Göbekli Tepe (11,500 years old) features monumental construction 1,000 years before earliest agriculture Academic consensus moves slowly; archaeologists find what they expect to find Why Civilizations Fall Pattern 1: Military overextension and fiscal collapse (like Soviet Union) Pattern 2: Complex trade network breakdown (Bronze Age collapse example) History isn't linear progress - it's cycles of rise, stagnation, and fall Modern Implications We may not reach the singularity - could face our own stagnation period Military overextension is a current US risk China and US are 80-90% similar despite perceived differences Preventing Collapse Diversify beyond university monoculture - generate more "live players" Invest in novel energy sources and government experimentation Address fertility crisis (affects all societies regardless of politics) Avoid rationalizing decline as environmental success Historical Lessons Ancient societies had sophisticated "social technologies" we've lost Study history for positive examples, not just cautionary tales Human nature and organizational capacity remain largely unexplored

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• Is Nuclear Proliferation Inevitable? | Samo Burja

  Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg talk with Samo Burja on nuclear weapons proliferation, energy geopolitics, and his "nuclear accelerationist" argument that widespread nuclear capability is inevitable, so countries should pursue abundant nuclear energy despite proliferation risks. Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @SamoBurja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION: Core Argument: "Nuclear Accelerationism" Nuclear weapons proliferation is inevitable - the 80-year-old technology is only getting easier We're paying security costs without reaping energy benefits Should accelerate civilian nuclear development to achieve energy abundance North Korea precedent: Even poor, isolated countries can build nukes Japan example: Already has tons of plutonium, could build weapons in <1 year Proliferation ratchet: Countries rarely denuclearize once they acquire weapons National security incentives overwhelm nonproliferation efforts Nuclear club expansion: Countries with existing weapons should build thousands of reactors Energy exports: Non-nuclear countries buy electricity from nuclear neighbors Scale economics: Need massive reactor deployment for true cost advantages Incentive structure: Subsidize alternatives for countries that forgo nuclear tech Small arsenals (dozens of nukes) create different dynamics than superpower stockpiles (thousands) Current "doomsday machine" logic only applies to US/Russia/China Widespread small arsenals might actually reduce conventional war risk

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• The Future of Media with Noah Smith and Chris Best, CEO of Substack

  Today on Moment of Zen, we're airing a conversation with economist Noah Smith and Substack CEO Chris Best discussing the evolving media landscape. They dive into whether Twitter's dominance is waning, what features a successor platform would need, and how artificial intelligence is set to transform media as we know it. This conversation originally took place live on Noah's Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- RELATED LINKS: Eugene Wei's Status as a Service: https://www.eugenewei.com/blog/2019/2/19/status-as-a-service Twitter, Threads, and Remote Work with Eugene Wei: Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1zSxuEAgUUlptJHNEr2Q7O Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/twitter-threads-and-remote-work-with-eugene-wei/id1661672738?i=1000621483289 -- X / TWITTER: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION: Breaking News Platform Concept Noah proposed Substack could replace Twitter's former role as a breaking news hub by recruiting OSINT specialists and citizen journalists to create live blogs These would function as both real-time updates and daily digest newsletters, solving the chicken-and-egg problem of audience vs. content AI's Impact on Media AI will serve as a "force multiplier" for writers rather than replacing them entirely Key applications: summarization, curation, and search enhancement Writers may use AI teams to amplify their unique perspectives and research capabilities Platform Evolution Twitter's decline attributed to the shift from chronological to algorithmic feeds (pull to push media) The "age of Twitter" for breaking news lasted roughly 2011-2023 Substack currently excels at day-after analysis but lacks real-time news capabilities Geopolitical Concerns Noah expressed pessimism about US competitiveness against China due to population size (4x difference) Concerns about weakened alliance systems under recent US foreign policy Worries about falling behind in electric/battery technology due to policy and cultural resistance Content Abundance Problem Both noted the challenge of infinite content creation vs. scarce attention Emphasized importance of choosing content that shapes who you become, not just what you want right now

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• Are Dynasties Better Than Meritocracies?

  Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg examine how dynastic succession can outperform meritocratic systems. The discussion analyzes successful family-controlled enterprises like the New York Times, Samsung, and Sweden's Wallenberg companies, arguing that hereditary structures can often solve succession problems more effectively than rational selection mechanisms. Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @SamoBurja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

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• The Middle Class Myth and China’s Future with Noah Smith

  Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith debunk the myth that globalization destroyed America's middle class, showing wages actually grew during hyperglobalization. It examines the limited "China shock" impact and critiques how both political tribes' technology fears may handicap America's competitiveness against China. -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION: Main Argument Myth: Globalization hollowed out America's middle class Reality: Middle class moved UP income brackets; wages grew 40% during peak globalization Real Causes 1973 oil shock caused wage stagnation (70s-80s), not globalization China shock (2000s): Only 2M manufacturing jobs lost, limited scope America vs. China US: Less globalized than most countries; only 4% manufacturing trade deficit China: Cities will look shabby in 30 years; exports falling as % of GDP Political Technology Paralysis Republicans: Fear hardware (solar, batteries, EVs) Progressives: Fear software (AI, social media) Both sides handicapping American tech leadership while China advances

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