Odd Lots

• We Just Saw Europe's Biggest Week in Decades

  This week was a busy one and some of the most interesting things that happened came out of Europe, where policymakers announced up to €800 billion of additional defense spending and an easing of Germany's stringent debt rules. All of this comes as Europe responds to tariff threats from the Trump administration, as well as worries that the Trans-Atlantic security alliance may be over. So how significant could these changes be? And what do they mean for things like the euro, the dollar, and the wider financial system? And what are the vibes in Germany like right now? On this episode, we speak with George Saravelos, head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, about this huge moment.Read more:EU Backs German Push to Look at Easing Fiscal Rules for DefenseTrump Hails Tariffs as US Economy Barrels Into Trade Wars Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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• Eugene Fama and David Booth on the Birth of Modern Finance

  The 1970s were a pretty eventful time in markets. There was high inflation, the end of the gold standard, and a stock market crash. There was also a bunch of ideas coming out of the University of Chicago that would go on to be famous and highly influential for investors. Perhaps the most prominent is the Efficient Market Hypothesis, posited by Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama, which says that markets are right and it's useless for investors to try to outguess them. Fama later teamed up with David Booth, the founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors, and has been a longtime collaborator with the firm, which now has $777 billion under management. Today, they're releasing a documentary directed by Errol Morris and called "Tune Out the Noise," which chronicles this important time. We speak to both of these investment legends about the development of their theories, how they put them into practice, subsequent criticism, and what comes next. Read more:Wall Street Math Wizards Are Decoding Private-Market ReturnsUpstarts Challenge a Foundation of Modern InvestingCliff Asness Says Markets Are Less Efficient — And Social Media May Be to Blame Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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• Ray Dalio on the Coming Crisis in US Debt

  Almost whichever way you measure it, the US has a lot of debt. And, with the Trump administration recently proposing a budget that would see US debt levels swell even further, it doesn't look like this issue is going away any time soon. In this episode, we speak with Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and the author of the new book, How Countries Go Broke. We talk about how he thinks about debt cycles, the catalyst for when high levels of debt become an immediate problem, what a debt crisis actually looks like, and what the US needs to do to avoid a "heart attack" debt crisis within the next three years. We also speak about what investors should do in these scenarios, including Ray's thoughts on things like Bitcoin and gold. And, of course, we also speak about his role in helping create the Chicken McNugget.Read more:The Stories We Tell Ourselves About Bonds‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s AttentionOdd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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• Lots More on the Growing Risks to the US Labor Market

  A week from today we will get the February jobs report and there are growing concerns that the US labor market is slowing. Already, the number of sectors adding jobs in this economy is on the decline. Meanwhile, the housing market continues to struggle. Add in the Department of Government Efficiency and worsening fiscal conditions in the state and local sector, and the government may prove to be a drag on employment. To talk about this and other macro developments, including possible tariffs, we brought back Jon Turek, founder and CEO of JST Advisors, to break it all down on this episode. Read more: US Initial Jobless Claims Hit Highest of 2025 Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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• Goldman's Jared Cohen and George Lee on the Unprecedented Shocks in Geopolitics

  The first month of the Trump administration has been noisy and novel by basically any measure. But perhaps the biggest shockwaves have been in the realm of geopolitics. Europeans were caught off guard by a recent speech given by Vice President JD Vance in Munich, calling into doubt the future of the Trans-Atlantic partnership. Meanwhile, when it comes to tariffs, the Trump administration has actually been tougher on Mexico and Canada than it has been on China. Then add into all of this the anxiety over AI domination, as a result of the hype around DeepSeek. So how should we understand these novel risks? And how should investors incorporate them into their thinking? On this episode we speak with Jared Cohen and George Lee, the co-heads of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute. They discuss the future of Europe, what they're expecting from the Trump administration, the rise of the Gulf powers, AI, undersea cables, and the opportunities in identifying what they call "geopolitical swing states" like Japan and India.Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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