Saxo Market Call

The AI disruption overlay trade is now bordering on the AI apocalypse trade as a well penned research report intensifies the sell-off in names that the market fears the future of AI will disrupt. IBM suddenly the latest victim on the announcement of the latest Anthropic tool that might be able to update old mainframe software. We try to assess the landscape and wonder when and whether the selling stops, or whether the sell-off sparks widening fears for the market. The latest on macro and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

With Ruben Dalfovo, Saxo Equity Market strategist, today we delve into how to approach and rate the prospects for beaten down software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks with a systematic approach and how some names may have been unfairly punished recently while the business models of others are indeed in doubt. We also look at a number of important software names reporting this week, as well as previewing the biggest hardware name of them all: Nvidia, who reports earnings Wednesday. Also, Trump tariffs, macro and FX and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Today's links:

Ruben's piece: The AI stress-test for software stocks: a simple framework to spot disruption risk

The JPY carry trade is important to understand, as well as the risks should it be set to unwind in coming weeks and months.

Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, another breakdown of the remarkable dispersion in the US market, with few signs that it is ending just yet, while Europe continues to soar on record inflows. FX is deeper in limbo after USD shorts were squeezed - important to see how we close for the week there, especially for EURUSD as we saw a very pale green shoot from the German Manufacturing PMI today for the first time in years. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a modest US equity market rally as we wonder whether those pressing recent themes within AI winners vs. AI losers have overextended themselves. In any case, equity technicals look pivotal here, as does the USD and JPY outlook in key pairs, all while we wonder whether markets, outside of the crude oil market itself, are too complacent in continuing to ignore the risk of the outbreak of a war or regime change attempt in Iran. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, continuing to note the wild swings in individual names even as the overall indices look relatively flat on the surface, while wondering whether some of the recent attempts to play the AI winners/losers game has gone too far and if we could see some mean reversion. We run through a number of individual stock stories as well. Over in macro and FX we note the market shifting into limbo mode, which is raising uncertainty levels uncomfortably. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Two links for today. The one to a great recent podcast on all things FX, speculative stocks and more with Brent Donnelly and another some comments from Jeremy Grantham on the risks to the main indices if two of the "big three" IPOs happen this year.

Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.