Saxo Market Call

Today, we look at the violent vibe shift in the US equity market, which crumbled overnight after a quite positive session, led by the very high momentum sectors that posted a solid result yesterday. It doesn't feel like this is all coming from negative reactions to earnings results from the likes of Tesla or Lam Research - but what is it? We wonder if it could be geopolitics. Also on today's pod, we delve way back into the financial history of the 1870's depression and its origins and aggravations, whether hedge fund strategies that are blowing up are further aggravating the French debt market instabilities and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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The eFinancialCareers story that anecdotally suggests some of the stress on French debt could be down to ill-advised bets that mean reversion on French yield spreads would remain operative. 

HT to Cory Doctorow for this substack post on the Singularity (when AI and technology suddenly begin outstripping human capabilities and possibly leading to our merging machines), which like nuclear fusion always seems to be 20 years away. The post has a couple of book recommendations from the early 2000's on what the Singularity might look like. I asked ChatGPT for some more up-to-date recommendations, and it gave me this one and this one from Ray Nayler, which look very interesting, but also this one and this one, number three from Adrian Tchaikovsky's Dogs of War series. I haven't read the latter, but did read his Dogs of War - incredibly highly recommended speculative fiction book that is "A gripping exploration of AI, free will, personhood and the ethics of creating intelligent beings as weapons.", an apt ChatGPT summary. There is also Toward Eternity by Anton Hur, which is apparently more about transhumanism.

The PHP2shell hack is getting a lot of attention. People like French grocery stores that don't patch their freezer firmware could still be at risk.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at yet another day of US equity market divergences, as the major indices and semiconductors posted an indifferent to slightly negative day while most stocks were up solidly on the day. This rhymes with another market from around the years 2000-01. Also, a look at SpaceX and Netflix earnings and the very different reactions. French yields and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Japan is running short of yttrium as China cuts of supplies, likely on the excuse that Japan is remilitarizing.

A long form debate on the importance and denouement of the massive US current account deficit, the world's most important imbalance.

Someone pokes into how Coreweave's bonds can be under so much strain when it still has over USD 30 billion in equity.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we look at the markets trying to get back in a positive mood yesterday in the US, but with the broader market and the rest of the world not having any of it as oil prices surged once again and as the situation in France continues to fester. Discomfort with stability of AI "neo-cloud" companies is also weighing. With earnings season hitting full swing this week, we wonder why SpaceX is suddenly set to report earnings today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Bloomberg covers what needs to happen to get French yields under control, which mostly boils down to cutting the transfer payments to old people. At least they might be less likely to riot and set things on fire? Here's an excellent take on the why of the French riots, with a hat-tip to Izabella Kaminska for the link.

Business Insider reports on Amazon's racks of AI servers not able to connect to the grid.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a massive comeback from further steep selling in US equities, establishing a critical line in the sand for the major indices and especially AI-adjacent names from here, effectively a bull-bear line. Elsewhere, Tesla demonstrated its new Roadster, which can both "fly" for an unknown number of seconds and "suck" itself to the road, allowing for beyond vertical adherence to a road surfaces and supposedly insane cornering abilities. Useful. More importantly, a deep-dive on the global oil picture and the troublesome Brent futures contract with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and so much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Elon Musk shows off the supposedly coming-in-2028 Tesla Roadster - an admittedly beautiful car with pointless and over-the-top suck and blow features.

Robert Pape posts on the doubling of support for political violence in the US, with the anti-Trump respondents more in favour, though we wonder if that is because Trump happens to hold power.

A Fox News poll puts government corruption at the top of the list of voters concerns, ahead of the inflation and the cost of healthcare. Not sure Trump has a good answer for that one.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a wild day for US treasuries as a hot US CPI print first pumps US treasury yields, only to see longer-dated yields end the day at the lowest level in weeks. The US dollar followed yields lower and the implication is that treasuries may be a safe haven again as in the days of yore, given that stocks were generally weak for the entire post-CPI episode yesterday. This and much more, including what is spooking this market and where to focus next as earnings season hits full stride next week. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

John's The FX Trader piece from today.

I made an error on the podcast, it was not Michael Every himself but Every reposting a comical Luke Gromen X post asking whether this Fed will reflexively hike merely based on the direction of the oil price, in which case its monetary policy is in the hands of Iran and the IRGC.

Coverage of China's treasury holdings and whether it is merely shifting these to custodian banks outside the US rather than reducing them materially.

WSJ exclusive covers the Trump-Ukraine spat and wonders about the sequence of events leading to the shutdown of Ukraine's access to StarLink satellites.

WSJ investigates on the weapons the US Space Force used in its decapitation assault on Venezuela's regime.

For the astronomy nerds out there, an investigation based on new evidence of what dark matter is and what it isn't. Again, HT FTAlphaville.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.