Autonomy Markets

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walt Piecyk discuss Grayson’s recent field work in Silicon Valley and Walt’s observations in London.
Together they examine Waymo’s technical milestones, specifically Grayson’s first-hand experience on the highway and at SFO. During Grayson’s ride from SFO to Mountain View, he noted the vehicle’s smooth performance across three lanes, its strict adherence to speed limits, and a rare instance of Waymo using its horn when it was cut off.
This leads to a broader discussion on Waymo’s rapid Miami expansion and their choice of fleet management partners. The conversation then shifts towards the competitive landscape and Grayson’s attempt to use the Tesla’s robotaxi app in the Valley, which was hampered by wait times exceeding 25 minutes.
Over in London, Walt reported on the skepticism of London’s black taxi drivers regarding Waymo’s efforts in the UK. Closing out the conversation they discussed Glydways expansion in Atlanta and Newark.

Episode Chapters
00:00 Silicon Valley and London Field Work
18:40 Google Gemini
20:59 Waymo in London
25:27 Waymo's Miami Beach Expansion
29:16 Waymo's Fleet Management Strategy
31:55 Autonomous Vehicles in Virginia, Not This Year
34:56 Waabi's Robotaxi Messaging
39:06 Glydways Expansion
42:47 Foreign Autonomy Desk
43:26 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy is the definitive media brand covering the Autonomy Economy™. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary market intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.
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Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss the launch of Uber Autonomous Solutions and Waymo's continued to expansion. As Uber’s stock faces pressure from the overhang of future autonomy, the company is attempting to shift the narrative by pitching a suite of services including training data, enriched mapping, and AV insurance. Grayson and Walt break down the initiative point by point, debating whether Uber is truly staying asset-light or quietly moving toward an asset-heavy model by leaning into fleet management and mission control technology. The discussion also dives into the geopolitical risks of Uber’s international partnerships in Abu Dhabi with Chinese firms like WeRide and Baidu, alongside a critique of a recent broker report that downplayed the cost advantages of removing human drivers.In stark contrast to Uber’s narrative-heavy approach, Waymo continues to scale through raw data and expansion, recently hitting a massive milestone of 1 million fully autonomous freeway miles. Waymo is rapidly growing its footprint, announcing new markets in Chicago and Charlotte while opening early rider access in cities like Dallas, Houston, and Orlando, notably without Uber as a partner. As the capital markets pour $1.2 billion into Wayve at an $8.6 billion valuation, the focus shifts to the broader explosion of Physical AI. With NVIDIA reporting $6 billion in earnings from this sector last quarter, their leadership signals that robotaxis and humanoids are set to become the defining growth markets of the next decade.

Episode Chapters00:00 Uber's Identity Crisis 1:33 Breaking Down Uber Autonomous Solutions20:43 Uber's Abu Dhabi Analyst Day & Chinese Tech Risks 35:37 Waymo Announces Chicago & Charlotte as New Markets 40:55 Uber and Waymo's Waning Relationship 42:03 Waymo Surpasses 1 Million Fully Autonomous Freeway Miles43:56 Waymo Eyes the EU Expansion 46:32 Wayve's $1.2B Funding Round50:39 NVIDIA, Physical AI, & Humanoids 53:04 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy is the definitive media brand covering the Autonomy Economy™. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary market intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.
⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology.
Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk unpack a wave of developments reshaping the autonomous vehicle landscape. Data surfacing from a follow-up to a recent Senate hearing reveals that Waymo currently operates 3,000 autonomous vehicles supported by only 70 remote assistance agents worldwide.
Grayson calls the ratio definitive proof of Waymo's technology lead, while Walt raises a pointed concern that roughly half of those remote roles are outsourced to the Philippines, creating a political vulnerability that could draw scrutiny as the industry scales.
From there, the conversation turns to infrastructure. Uber is reportedly investing $100 million to build autonomous vehicle fast-charging stations across San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Dallas. The move sparks a spirited debate about Uber. Is the company that built its brand on being asset-light now quietly pivoting to an asset-heavy model to stay competitive in the autonomy era?
On the regulatory front, Governor Kathy Hochul shelved a proposal that would have permitted robotaxis outside New York City, reportedly bowing to special interest pressure, a setback Grayson and Walt call deeply disappointing.
Meanwhile, Iowa lawmakers are advancing bills requiring a human driver behind the wheel, creating a strange-bedfellows alliance between pro-autonomy hybrid network advocates and traditional opponents of autonomous driving technology.
Shifting to hardware, Tesla's Cybercab secured an FCC order authorizing ultra-wideband radio technology for wireless charging. Grayson cautions, however, that FCC approval is only one piece of the puzzle, as Tesla still needs NHTSA exemptions to operate vehicles without steering wheels or pedals before any real-world scaling can begin.

Episode Chapters
00:00 Waymo: 70 Remote Agents for 3,000 Cars
04:00 Waymo's Unforced Error of Outsourcing Remote Assistance to the Philippines
08:00 SFO Rideshare Volume and Waymo's Impact on Traditional TNCs
15:00 New York Governor Hochul Pulls Robotaxi Proposal
20:00 Iowa Lawmakers Push a Driver-In Bill
23:00 Will the Real Uber Please Stand Up? The $100M Charging Pivot
29:00 "Take or Pay" Contracts: Is Uber Blocking Competitors?
32:00 Tesla Cybercab Gets FCC Wireless Charging Approval
36:00 Tesla NHTSA Exemption
38:00 Aurora Opens 1,000-Mile Autonomous Trucking Lane

The Road to Autonomy is the definitive media brand covering the Autonomy Economy™. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary market intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.
⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology.
Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss whether Waymo has finally solved the supply constraint question following reports of a deal for 50,000 Hyundai vehicles by 2028. They break down the economics, theorizing a $50,000 per-vehicle cost that likely includes line-fit sensors, a price point that Grayson argues destroys the bear case that autonomous vehicles cannot cost-effectively scale.
The conversation then shifts to hardware as Walt puts on his inspector hat, spotting a hidden Class 8 truck graphic in Waymo’s latest blog post. This revelation sparks a debate on if Waymo is planning a return to trucking in 2027 to coincide with the new Daimler Truck’s new Freightliner Cascadia redundant chassis platform. They also analyze Waymo’s 6th Generation Driver, noting the emphasis on custom silicon and aggressive camera cleaning systems seems to mimic Tesla’s approach.
On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, they discuss Lyft’s plan to launch Baidu RT6 robotaxis in London and Uber’s deployment of Chinese robotaxis in Dubai. While Uber touts its partners, Grayson provides ground truth on the Chinese market, arguing that strict geofences and residency restrictions mean the technology is not as far ahead as Western media portrays.
Looking at the broader ecosystem, Grayson and Walt analyze Aurora’s pivot to upfitting International trucks, a strategy shift that mirrors competitor Kodiak, along with Kodiak’s new defense partnership with the United States Marine Corps.
Closing out the show, they discuss the current regulatory environment for autonomous vehicles and NHTSA’s Automated Vehicle Safety Public Meeting upcoming in March and Waymo calling for D.C. residents to advocate for autonomous vehicles.

Episode Chapters
0:00 Waymo’s Reported 50,000 Robotaxi Hyundai Deal
03:26 The $50,000 Robotaxi Economics
06:20 Zeekr & Waymo/Magna Mesa Upfitting Plant
10:11 Scaling to 750,000 Autonomous Vehicles
17:09 Waymo Gen 6: Custom Silicon & Improved Cameras
23:21 Uber’s Narrative vs. Waymo’s Reality
28:09 Lyft’s Flex Drive Advantage
31:52 Inspector Walt: Waymo’s Autonomous Truck Tease
33:41 Aurora’s Pivot & Kodiak’s Marine Corps Deal
41:39 Foreign Autonomy Desk: Lyft in London & Uber in Dubai
45:09 The Regulatory Tide Turns
48:38 Hyundai: The Arms Dealer of Autonomy

Autonomy is transforming industries and creating an entirely new economy that we call the autonomy economy.
The Road to Autonomy is the definitive media brand covering the Autonomy Economy™. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary market intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.
⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology.
Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s repricing of the robotaxi market with a $16 billion raise at a $126 billion valuation, Uber’s defensive Myths and Realities earnings supplement, and the launch of a new segment, The Pit Stop.
The conversation heats up as Walt and Grayson debate Uber’s claim that autonomous vehicle growth is not a zero-sum game, with Grayson arguing that personal ownership and dedicated autonomous vehicle networks will eat into Uber’s market share while, Walt defends the narrative of total market expansion.
While Uber attempts to debunk autonomous vehicle myths, Grayson puts on his inspector hat for the inaugural Pit Stop segment, revealing exclusive details about Waymo’s Miami depot infrastructure, including a depot under construction near the airport and the strategic placement of fleet operations near the Design District.
Looking at the broader regulatory landscape, Grayson and Walt analyze recent Senate testimony where Waymo disclosed their use of remote assistance based in the Philippines, a move Walt classifies as an unforced error during a push for a National Autonomous Vehicle Framework.
On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, they highlight the Middle East becoming a beachhead for scale with Baidu going driver-out in Dubai and WeRide partnering with Uber, noting the region is likely the only place where US and Chinese robotaxis will coexist for the time being.
Waymo is now valued at $126 billion as Uber actively tries to debunk the myths and realities of autonomous vehicles, plus we introduce a new segment, The Pit Stop, where the Inspector goes to Miami.Episode Chapters 0:00 Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $126bn Valuation 2:35 Waymo World Powered by DeepMind6:43 Uber's Myth's and Realities 29:03 The Pit Stop: The Inspector Goes to Miami 39:02 The Pit Stop: Tesla's San Fransisco Robotaxi Depot Gets Blocked 41:38 AVs Need Clear Rules of the Road U.S. Senate Hearing48:01 Bedrock Robotics Raises $270 million50:28 Foreign Autonomy Desk 55:04 Next Week

Autonomy is transforming industries and creating an entirely new economy that we call the autonomy economy™.
The Road to Autonomy provides advisory and market intelligence services that helps you better understand the market and stay ahead of what’s coming next. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions.
⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology.
Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠