Because it moves the field from impressive lab demos toworkloads you can actually run.
After a year of hosting Beyond the Qubit, I have learnedthis.
The real challenge is not the physics.
It is knowing what is real progress, while the answer is still uncertain.
Here is what I have learned so far.
First.
Quantum is no longer one story.
There are multiple credible technology paths, and it is genuinely difficulttoday to say which one will win.
Second.
Scaling is still underestimated.
Not just more qubits on a chip/unit, but also clustering chips together, andimproving error correction so you need fewer physical qubits for each logicalqubit.
Third.
A simple truth I keep repeating to myself.
A logical qubit is an error corrected qubit you can compute with reliably.
And today, the world still has no or only a very small number of them.
That is why the next milestone matters.
My working heuristic is this.
Around 100 logical qubits is where the first meaningful applications may startto appear.
And somewhere around 1,000 to 2,000 logical qubits is where many of the bigapplications start to open up, like molecular modelling and large scaleoptimization.
The exact number will depend on the application and theerror rates.
But the order of magnitude matters.
So if the industry reaches 100 logical qubits, it is notjust a benchmark.
It is a strong signal that scaling is working.
And it makes the path toward 1,000 plus feel less like science fiction and morelike an engineering roadmap.
That shift changes things.
Capital.
Talent.
Time horizons.
And the way society talks about quantum.
Now a second lesson for investors and builders.
This market could consolidate around a few winners.
That is exciting, but it also means technology risk remains high.
So where do you look if you want exposure without betting ona single horse?
Suppliers.
The enablers.
Because scaling does not just mean better chips.
It depends on the technology, for super conducting qubits it means morechannels, more calibration, more test, more wiring, more cooling, and bettererror correction tooling.
This is why I like studying the enabling layer.
Chip testing, control systems, interconnects, cryogenics, and error correctionsoftware.
These companies often aim to support more than one quantum technology path,which can mean earlier revenue and lower single technology risk.
Two examples I personally find interesting are OrangeQuantum Systems and QC Design.
Not investment advice, just examples of the enabling layer.
One more observation.
The world is spending enormous amounts on compute for AI.
Quantum is not the same as AI compute, and AI spend is not a direct driver ofquantum.
But it can accelerate adjacent tooling, packaging, photonics, and engineeringtalent that the quantum ecosystem also depends on.
Add geopolitics and digital sovereignty, and quantum becomeseven more strategic.
So yes.
Quantum still has uncertainty.
But the direction of travel is clear.
The next years are about proving that logical qubits canscale.
Through scale up, scale out, and better error correction.
That is what I will keep tracking on Beyond the Qubit.
Now I am curious about your view.
Which unlock do you think comes first on the road to 100logical qubits.
Scale up, scale out, or error correction.
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📌 Disclaimer: Thispost is shared on a personal basis and I do not represent any company
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