The atmosphere is unpredictable, and weather forecasts are far more reliable on some days than others. For anyone trading power or gas across Europe, knowing the difference is everything. It's what separates a confident call from an expensive guess. In this conversation, Ed is joined by Matt Dobson - Head of European Energy Forecasting and Emma Patmore, Energy Meteorologist from MetDesk. They walk us through when they can trust what they're seeing and when they can't, and how they turn an uncertain forecast into something traders can actually act on. Along the way they cover wind droughts (or Dunkelflaute), a possible record El Niño, river levels that shut down power stations, and the rise of AI weather models They cover - How weather forecast accuracy isn't fixed: Why a day-ahead wind forecast lands within 10–15% around 80% of the time, but a shifted low-pressure track can swing output 30–40%. - Dunkelflaute explained: How a blocking high-pressure system causes a wind drought, and why the longest recent German event ran nine days in early November 2024. - El Niño and energy markets: Why a milder autumn means lower heating demand and gives traders reason to sell Q4 gas. - AI weather models vs traditional models: why AI is pulling ahead at the 10–20 day horizon while traditional models stay sharper on fine-scale detail. - Heatwaves and nuclear power: How 40°C heat in France and low river levels force nuclear curtailment and Rhine freight limits, echoing 2022. Want to see how weather is moving European power and gas prices right now? Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst: Free sign up: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast_apps&utm_campaign=metdesk&utm_content=ko_signup Read the companion article here You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy. Chapters 0:00 - How weather forecasting drives energy markets 1:01 - What everyone gets wrong about weather forecasting 1:26 - Why forecast accuracy changes with the time horizon 4:03 - Saharan dust and solar power generation 6:02 - How weather varies over short distances 7:11 - Dunkelflaute explained: wind drought conditions 8:20 - German wind power and the nine-day wind drought 11:08 - Teleconnections: El Nino, ENSO and the MJO 12:54 - Record El Nino forecast and what it means 17:30 - Trading El Nino: gas, hydro and Alpine snow 17:56 - Why traders go short Q4 gas 18:58 - ECMWF data and ensemble forecasting 19:35 - How weather ensembles work: 151 members 21:39 - AI weather models vs traditional forecasting 23:25 - Are weather forecasts getting more accurate? 26:17 - Climate change and weather forecasting 27:50 - French heatwaves and nuclear power curtailment 31:10 - Low Rhine levels and freight restrictions 33:11 - The polar vortex and sudden stratospheric warming 36:15 - The Beast from the East explained
How Germany Decarbonises Industrial Heat - ENERGYNEST
23-06-2026 | 37 Min.
Two thirds of industrial energy demand is heat, not electricity, and most of it still runs on gas. Thermal storage converts cheap electricity into heat, stores it in concrete, and dispatches it when the factory needs it, undercutting the gas bill even though gas is cheaper per unit on average. Alex Robertson, CEO of ENERGYNEST, joins Ed Porter to explain how a thermal battery works, why it competes with lithium-ion on cost, and why grid connections - not the technology - are the real constraint on industrial decarbonisation. They cover: - Why thermal storage functions like a battery on the energy markets but stores heat one-way in optimised concrete. - The medium-temperature "frying, drying and applying" range (roughly 150 to 300C) that sits above heat pumps and below cement and steel. - How decoupling thermal demand from the electricity price typically can cut the gas bill by around 50%. - Why a 20-foot-container module stores about two megawatt hours, stacks three high, and loses only around 2% of capacity per day. - Why a flexible, interruptible asset is exactly what congested grids need - and why Germany still lacks the flexible connection framework the Netherlands is rolling out. Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, any question from this conversation: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast_apps&utm_campaign=Alex Robertson&utm_content=ko_signup Read the companion article: https://modoenergy.com/transmission-podcast/80ce6824-59a1-495b-9e94-0a38bdb9572e?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast_apps&utm_campaign=Alex Robertson&utm_content=article_page Modo Energy's solar and battery forecasts are live at modo.energy. You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy. Chapters 0:00 - Introduction 0:11 - Industrial heat demand and the gas problem 1:13 - One thing everyone gets wrong about thermal storage 3:14 - How the concrete thermal battery works 4:08 - Medium temperature heat and the customer profile 6:56 - Why gas boilers still dominate German industry 7:52 - Using storage to beat the gas price 10:09 - Concrete versus lithium-ion: cost and supply chain 13:10 - Degradation and the 25-year thermal capacity 16:02 - Scaling up: module size and storage capacity 16:40 - Daily cycling and storage duration economics 19:50 - Seasonal variation and running gas in winter 23:33 - Cost, savings and the five-year payback 24:36 - The ideal customer and the grid connection test 25:46 - Data centres, demand queues and grid congestion 28:02 - Flexible connection agreements and the system design gap 30:10 - Grid utilisation versus grid buildout 33:34 - Heat as a service and unlocking investment 36:04 - A contrarian view on industrial decarbonisation Music licensed via Artlist.
Grid Fees and Saturation: Germany's Battery Outlook - Modo Energy
16-06-2026 | 46 Min.
Germany's battery storage market is booming - but a saturation crunch is coming, and most investors aren't ready for it. The question is which revenue streams hold up, and which collapse the way they did in GB, Texas, and Australia. Ed sits down with Till Stehr, German Research Analyst, and Cosima from the Advisory Services Team at Modo Energy, to map the real structural drivers, and risks, behind German BESS returns. They cover: Why German battery saturation is closer than the market thinks - FCR is already saturated, with aFRR close behind. • Why German battery revenues near €200,000/MW/year for a two-hour system are more about timing than structure. • What makes Germany's intraday market the most liquid in Europe and the €1,000+/MWh spikes batteries feed on. • How flexible connection agreements are quietly reshaping returns, from ramp rates to export caps. • What German grid fees look like after the 2029 exemption and why dynamic fees are locational pricing through the back door. Got a question about the German BESS market? Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=till_cosima&utm_content=ko_signup Chapters: 00:00 – An Introduction tGermany's Battery Storage Market 00:50 – What Investors Get Wrong About Germany 02:33 – Why Ancillary Services Saturate Fast 03:47 – German Battery Revenues: €200k per MW 05:24 – Structural Value: Solar and Intraday Trading 06:30 – Redispatch Costs and Locational Pricing 08:04 – FCR and aFRR Explained 09:37 – Battery Saturation and the Overbuilt Ratio 14:08 – Europe's Most Liquid Intraday Market 18:50 – Battery Interconnection: Friend or Foe? 21:52 – Negative Power Prices in Germany 25:36 – Flexible Connection Agreements Explained 32:19 – Battery Inertia and Grid-Forming Inverters 35:53 – German Grid Fees: What's Announced 40:37 – Contrarian Views: DSOs and Locational Pricing
How Battery Traders Actually Make Money - Statkraft
09-06-2026 | 52 Min.
Most battery revenue projections stop at the day-ahead auction. But the optimisers running multi-gigawatt BESS portfolios argue that's where the money is being left on the table - re-trading a battery through intraday, balancing, and ancillary services can add 50% or more to revenue, and battery offtake structures like floors, tolls, and swaps only make sense once you understand how that value actually gets captured. In this episode of Transmission, Ed Porter sits down with Brian Lonn, Head of UK Flexibility at Statkraft, to break down how a multi-gigawatt battery optimisation desk actually trades batteries and the offtake structures it offers on top. They cover: How battery re-trading works in practice. How Statkraft scaled its GB flex portfolio from 22MW of intraday-active battery volume to ~4.5GW under contract and why this scale is the precondition for offering offtake at all. Why the battery optimisation market could consolidate and what that means for smaller optimisers and asset owners. How battery floors, tolls, and day-ahead swaps differ in tenor and purpose, with a working £/MW ballpark for each on a 2-hour battery. Brian's contrarian view on Clean Power 2030: why the real question for the GB power system is megawatt-hours, not megawatts. Want sharper answers on battery storage markets? Ko is Modo Energy's AI analyst, built on our underlying data and research. Ask Ko anything: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=brian_lonn&utm_content=ko_signup Read the companion article: [COMPANION ARTICLE URL — TBC] You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy. 00:00 Introduction 01:06 What everyone gets wrong about battery asset optimisation 05:14 Statkraft's GB flex portfolio — scaling to 4.5GW 07:24 Inside a battery trading desk — the operational reality 10:02 Re-trading explained — and the £100 to £150 worked example 16:49 How algorithmic intraday battery trading has evolved 19:50 Re-trading uplift — 50%+ over day-ahead-only battery revenue 22:14 The balancing mechanism and NESO's role in battery dispatch 29:58 Battery offtake structures — floors, tolls, and day-ahead swaps 37:35 Co-location — solar and battery storage in the GB market 45:36 How to break into battery asset optimisation and energy trading 49:04 Brian's contrarian view — megawatts vs megawatt-hours 50:03 Why battery augmentation matters for Clean Power 2030 Music licensed via Artlist.
The scope of the National Energy System Operator - or NESO - has expanded from running the electricity system to planning Britain's whole energy system across electricity, gas and hydrogen, all while delivering connections reform and steering toward Clean Power 2030. That transformation is reshaping everything from how Britain plans its grid 20 years out to how it keeps the lights on tonight. Ed Porter is joined by Kayte O'Neill, Chief Operating Officer at the National Energy System Operator (NESO), for a wide-ranging conversation on the biggest changes in the GB power market: grid connections reform, the battery storage queue, zero-carbon grid operation, and the next wave of electricity market design. They cover: Connections reform and the UK grid queue — how NESO has cut the 800GW queue down to a deliverable pipeline and what Gate 2 means for developers over the next 12 months. The battery storage connections queue and how NESO is thinking about attrition, bay sharing and co-location. Zero-carbon operation of the GB grid and why gas plants still run on windy, sunny days (stability services, inertia, grid-forming inverters) NESO's expanded whole-system role - strategic planning across electricity, gas and hydrogen, and the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP) Reformed National Pricing, data centre demand connections, AI in the control room, and the £40bn/year investment unlock at stake. Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI energy analyst, your questions on UK grid operations and BESS markets: Sign up here Transcript available here Hosted by Ed Porter, Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy. Chapters: 00:00 - Intro: what people get wrong about NESO 04:15 - NESO's new role in gas security of supply 05:49 - The summer outlook and GB's low-demand operability problem 07:48 - Why gas still runs on the GB grid on windy, sunny days 09:49 - Stability services and the path to zero-carbon grid operation 11:03 - The 97.7% zero-carbon record on 1 April 2025 12:40 - Stability pathfinders, inertia markets and grid-forming inverters 17:04 - The winter challenge: gigawatts vs terawatt-hours 21:33 - Connections reform: from 800GW to a deliverable grid 23:54 - What connections reform means for developers next 26:01 - The skilled-labour bottleneck behind grid build-out 30:32 - Battery queue attrition and the BESS oversupply problem 33:51 - The Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP) 38:59 - Co-location and bay sharing: the unfinished reform 44:35 - Reformed National Pricing and GB electricity market reform 49:13 - Data, digital and AI in the NESO control room 51:44 - The 2026 Operability Strategy Report and Markets Roadmap 52:24 - A contrarian case for connections reform Music licensed via Artlist.
Transmission is the podcast for energy professionals navigating the global shift to a low-carbon power system. Hosted by Ed Porter, Transmission goes deep on battery storage markets, power market dynamics, and the commercial forces shaping the energy transition - with the people at the centre of it.
Every week, we sit down with the CEOs, heads of trading desks, government advisors, policy architects, and leading practitioners driving change across the industry.
These are practitioner conversations - focused on how markets actually work, where the real opportunities and risks lie, and what the data is telling us.
We cover clean energy investing, capacity markets, balancing mechanism participation, and the evolving regulatory environment that shapes returns across geographies. Our coverage spans Great Britain, Germany, Spain, and the broader European energy transition, with regular episodes dedicated to the specific dynamics of each market.
Transmission tracks the inflection points that matter: when markets shift, where capital is flowing, and what experienced operators are doing next.
We also cover power markets more broadly - interconnectors, flexibility markets, grid infrastructure, and the trading strategies that sophisticated players use to extract value in increasingly complex systems.
Who listens: Transmission is built for people who work in energy - analysts, investors, developers, traders, asset managers, and policy professionals at every stage of their careers.
If you're entering the industry or building your understanding of how battery storage and power markets actually work, Transmission is one of the fastest ways to get up to speed - directly from the people shaping them.
About Modo Energy: Transmission is produced by Modo Energy, a B2B SaaS platform that helps renewable energy companies, funds, utilities, and banks manage and value their energy assets. Specializing in batteries and provides data, analytics, and forecasting to help customers understand the financial performance of their energy assets.
The Modo Energy Terminal is the one-stop shop for teams trying to understand the commercial case for grid-scale battery energy storage - bringing together trusted indices, customizable benchmarks, independent revenue forecasts, in-depth written analysis, and much more.
Guided by the principles of transparency and usability, Modo Energy’s Terminal provides owners, operators, developers and financiers with a complete view of the landscape for storage - past, present, and future - so that users can make informed, bankable decisions about their assets.
Hundreds of organizations rely on Modo’s tools and insights to navigate market trends, optimize investment strategies, and stay ahead of industry shifts. As the storage space continues to evolve, Modo is leading the way - helping businesses unlock the full value of their assets and make smarter decisions in a net-zero future.
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