BTC Sessions

Mentor Sessions Ep 102: Rational Root breaks down Bitcoin on-chain data, the 2026 cycle bottom, ETF cost basis, the four year cycle and his macro outlook.

The Bitcoin bottom looks like it's already in, and the on-chain data says this was the least retail driven cycle in history. Rational Root joins the show with a stack of charts to explain exactly why price held at $60K through the Cold Card hack, the chain split, and the biggest ETF outflows ever recorded.

You'll see how the short-term holder cost basis breakout flipped the market bullish, why the ETF cost basis rejected price twice before the breakout, and how the four year spiral chart is behaving at this bottom compared to every prior cycle. You'll learn why Rational Root bought STRC at a 25% discount during the panic, what the digital credit stress test revealed, and why he thinks an all-time high could land before June 2027. You'll also get his candid macro read on AI, ISM manufacturing, interest rates, and the midterm cycle, plus why diminishing returns are likely moving forward even as the cycle keeps chugging along.

This is a practical, data-first conversation for holders trying to decide whether to keep stacking or wait for a lower low that may never come.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:36 - Meet Rational Root and What's Top Of Mind
1:27 - Price Action And The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Breakout
3:21 - Why This Bottom Looks Like Every Prior Cycle
5:05 - Why We Never Got The Blow-Off Top This Cycle
8:19 - The Momentum Indicator And Mild Capitulation Explained
9:04 - How Institutional Buyers Dampened The Drawdown
11:24 - The Four Year Spiral Chart And Diminishing Returns
13:04 - Will The Spiral Chart Eventually Break?
18:05 - The ETF Cost Basis And The Second Leg Up
20:56 - ETF Inflows, Outflows And The Digital Credit Stress Test
22:39 - The On-Chain Value Map And Fair Value
25:57 - Buying STRC At A 25% Discount During The Panic
28:07 - Cold Card Hack, Chain Split And Price That Wouldn't Break
31:22 - How Fast Can The Recovery Come From Here?
33:54 - An All-Time High Before June 2027?
39:11 - Macro: ISM, The Business Cycle And Midterms
45:52 - AI, Fiat And Why Bitcoin Still Matters More
52:42 - What Gave Rational Root Pause This Cycle
55:04 - How He Actually Feels About Bitcoin Right Now
1:00:31 - Where To Find Rational Root's Charts

🔗 Links & Resources:
→ Follow Rational Root on X: https://x.com/therationalroot
→ Rational Root Newsletter & Charts: https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
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🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

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#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #OnChainAnalysis #BitcoinCycle #FourYearCycle #RationalRoot #BitcoinBottom #BitcoinETF #ShortTermHolder #SpiralChart #BitcoinMacro #DiminishingReturns #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinBullMarket #AllTimeHigh #Bitcoin2027 #BitcoinPrediction

Mentor Sessions Ep 101: Joe Carlasare, Dr. Jeff Ross, and American HODL break down why Bitcoin at $85K is poised to break $100K, the dead four year cycle, and AI's economic impact in 2026.

Nation states now hold more Bitcoin on a percentage basis than individuals do, and Joe Carlasare and Jeff argue that single fact rewrites the entire bull case heading into 2026. With Bitcoin sitting around $85,000, this conversation makes the case that $100K is the starting bell, not the ceiling.

You'll learn why Carlasare calls the recent sell-off a self-fulfilling prophecy, why both guests believe the traditional four year cycle is finally dead, and how the walk from $100K to $1 million could happen faster and easier than most holders expect. You'll hear why long-term hodlers above $100K are already gone, why the Cold Card capitulation felt like the real bottom, and how liquidity, manufacturing, and speculation (the "three burners") tell the macro story right now. You'll also get a frank breakdown of AI's economic impact, the fight over compute governance, the IP and legal battles facing OpenAI and Anthropic, and the FinCEN rules on self-hosted wallets that were just rescinded.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:40 - Calling The Bottom At $58K And Where Bitcoin Sits Now
1:17 - P(Doom) Zero, P(BTC) 100
2:34 - Nation States Own More Bitcoin Than Individuals
3:23 - The Entire Sell-Off Was A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
4:36 - Why Flipping Green In 2026 Breaks The Four Year Cycle
6:44 - The Cold Card Capitulation And The Double Bottom
8:19 - Covid Distorted Every Economic Cycle
11:03 - Bitcoin Trades On Macro Now, Not The Cycle
13:14 - Junk Bonds At 14% And Broken Correlations
14:25 - Only 2.5% From A Green Year, 20% From $100K
15:30 - Why $100K Unlocks $200K, $300K, $400K
16:17 - The Walk From $100K To $1 Million
24:01 - The Michael Saylor Prophecy And Follow-On Buyers
27:31 - James Check: There's No Narrative, Just Demand
30:08 - Strategy Survived The Stress Test
34:26 - Is The Equity Market Over Its Skis?
38:19 - Creative Destruction And The AI Economy
40:35 - HODL On The AI Red Capture And Robo-God Labs
45:25 - Effective Altruism, The Vatican, And Compute Governance
47:33 - The Coming AI False Flag
52:47 - Can You Make AI Labs Legally Liable?
55:41 - Do Local Models Beat The Frontier?
1:00:41 - Will Wall Street Shred OpenAI And Anthropic?
1:01:02 - China, Manufacturing, And The IP Problem
1:03:13 - Is AI Output Fair Use? Courts Say No
1:06:35 - FinCEN's Self-Custody Rules Rescinded
1:07:19 - The Three Burners: Liquidity, Manufacturing, Speculation
1:13:48 - What FinCEN Actually Changed
1:15:15 - Joe's New Book And Closing Thoughts

This episode references the Cold Card incident, Michael Howell's liquidity work, Lyn Alden's fiscal framing, and Joe Carlasare's new book. Hardware wallet and self-custody tools discussed in the sponsor segments include Trezor and Casa multisig.

🔗 Links & Resources:
→ Follow Joe Carlasare on X: https://x.com/JoeCarlasare
→ Follow Jeff Ross on X: https://x.com/FormerDrJeff
→ Follow HODL on X: https://x.com/americanhodl8

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions
10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS

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⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOIN
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💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.
👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#Bitcoin #BTCSessions #JoeCarlasare #JeffRoss #AmericanHODL #BTC #BitcoinMacro #FourYearCycle #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinBullMarket #AIandBitcoin #BitcoinTo1Million #NationStateBitcoin #SelfCustody #FinCEN

Mentor Sessions Episode 100: James Check breaks down Bitcoin market cycles, on-chain data, the bull market transition, and his end-of-year $100K price target for 2026

Bitcoin just flipped from bear to bull and the on-chain data proves it: more than half of all invested wealth is now in profit, up from just 8% at the $58K lows. James Check returns to break down exactly what changed and where the cycle goes next.

You'll learn why James called the bottom back in July and what the run from the low $60s to $86K revealed on-chain. You'll see his four-phase market cycle model, how short-term and long-term holder cost basis acts as resistance, and why 90% of ETF buyers were underwater before $8 billion in outflows hit the bottom. You'll also hear his honest end-of-year outlook, his left/mid/right curve scenarios, and why he believes dips will most likely be bought from here.

This is a measured, data-first conversation for anyone navigating the transition out of a bear market without getting chopped up.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:42 - Confirming the Bull Market
1:24 - On-Chain Data Reveals Human Emotion
1:36 - Price Pain Versus Time Pain Capitulation
2:13 - Macro Trends Begin on One-Second Charts
3:13 - Two Legs Up and Short Squeezes
4:27 - Wealth in Profit Jumps From 8% to 55%
5:27 - Bear Market PTSD and Transition
6:25 - Will Old Buyers Sell at Break-Even?
7:22 - Who Bought Bitcoin at $64K?
8:04 - Four Seasons of Holder Behavior
9:39 - Volume Rising Across Exchanges
10:24 - Anything Missed in the Bear Market?
11:42 - ETFs Bought Tops and Sold Bottoms
13:07 - How 20% of Coins Drive 55% Drawdowns
15:11 - What a True Catastrophic Event Looks Like
15:48 - $100K Resistance and Silent IPO
18:09 - Why the Next All-Time High Feels Special
19:46 - Low-Fee ETF Flows Gaining Traction
21:19 - Why Companies Avoid Bitcoin on Balance Sheets
23:01 - Housing Markets Push Rotation Into Bitcoin
24:00 - Bitcoin Is Not Set and Forget
28:18 - Personal Signals Confirming the Bottom
30:40 - Testing Fear Versus Greed Titles
31:04 - Why Brains Are Wired to Lose Money
32:57 - Is the DCA Strategy Still Active?
33:46 - Maxing Purchases at $60K
40:40 - Bull Market Lines of Defense
44:34 - Tracking the Hot Ball of Money
53:47 - AI CapEx Compared to Bitcoin Mining
59:48 - End-of-Year Price Targets Left Mid Right
1:02:47 - Disbelief Rally Remains Alive and Well

🔗 Links & Resources:
→ James Check's newsletter & Checkonchain charts: https://checkonchain.com
→ James X.com: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

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#Bitcoin #BTC #Bitcoin100K #BTCSessions #JamesCheck #Checkonchain #OnChainData #BitcoinMarketCycle #BitcoinBullMarket #BullMarket #BearMarket #BitcoinAnalysis #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinETF #CostBasis #SelfCustody #Glassnode

Mentor Sessions Ep 099: Dave Collum on the AI bubble bursting, the bond market at 6%, boomer asset liquidation, and why gold and Bitcoin win as valuations regress.

The AI bubble has the life expectancy of a soufflé, the 30-year Treasury is being drawn to 6% like a magnet, and Dave Collum thinks the whole thing reprices within a year. This is the macro conversation most people are too polite to have.

In this episode, chemistry professor and macro commentator Dave Collum breaks down why the decades-long credit cycle is over, why the inverse correlation between gold and interest rates is about to break, and why boomer asset liquidation guarantees a repricing no dip-buyer can stop. You'll learn why he calls Jensen Huang's share buybacks a bell-ringing top, why he puts the AI capex build-out on a one-year clock, and why he thinks a rare double bear market in bonds AND equities is teeing up — the setup where 60/40 offers no protection. You'll also hear his contrarian take that AI will make the world worse without destroying civilization, plus his read on Warsh, the Fed, and why gold and Bitcoiners could be the ones left standing.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:50 - Gold Silver Recent Price Action
1:27 - End of the Long Credit Cycle
1:49 - Central Bankers Driving Rates to Zero
4:50 - Treasury Rates Pulled Toward Six Percent
6:32 - Seven Percent Mortgages Housing Trap
9:46 - Kevin Warsh Rate Hikes and Collapse
11:55 - Economy Needs Real Assets Not Data Centers
12:48 - Jensen Huang Nvidia Buyback Signal
14:17 - AI Threat to Civilization Examined
17:46 - Sneaky Behaviors Observed in AI
20:48 - Bitcoin Proof of Work Constrains AI
25:59 - Nuclear Risks Middle East Conflict
27:47 - Putin Iran Restraint in Geopolitics
40:52 - Israel Palestine Historical Context
45:11 - Iran Nuclear Strike Questions Raised
50:40 - Yen Carry Trade Stability Analysis
59:06 - Boomers Driving Boom and Bust
59:33 - Median Boomer Retirement Savings Shortfall
1:03:19 - Boomer Wealth Transfer Needs Repricing
1:08:08 - Lindsay Clancy Case Maternal Tracking
2:01:32 - System Collapse Worse Than Historical
2:03:16 - AI Bubble in Fifteenth Inning
2:04:31 - Market Regression Eighty Five Percent Drop
2:36:45 - Nasdaq Rollover Sudden Bid Support
2:39:15 - Gamma Squeeze Pushing Markets Higher
2:42:07 - Potential Correction Impact on Saylor

🔗 Links & Resources
→ Dave Collum on X: https://x.com/DavidBCollum

If you want the macro conversations the rest of the space won't touch, this is the show. Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin and macro interviews, and drop your take on Collum's one-year AI clock in the comments.

⚡Previous Episode:
Jack Mallers: https://youtu.be/LpwGHzUTQ7A

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

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⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOIN
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💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.
👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#MacroEconomics #BondMarket #BTCSessions #DaveCollum #AIbubble #EconomicBubble #TreasuryYields #CreditCycle #BoomerWealth #GeopoliticalRisk #GoldAndBitcoin #MarketCrash #6040Portfolio #SystemicCollapse

Mentor Sessions Ep 098: Jack Mallers explains monetizing chaos, dollar debasement, the ColdCard incident, El Salvador and why Bitcoin is the most American technology.

Jack Mallers argues the entire fiat system forces everyone into speculation whether they know it or not — and Bitcoin is how you take the other side of the chaos. In a wide-ranging sit-down, the Strike CEO breaks down monetizing chaos, the $40 trillion debt bill nobody wants to foot, and why he's never been more bullish.

You'll hear why Jack calls debt a form of "time travel" that already spent your future, how the dollar's world-reserve status structurally forces deficits, and why a severe debasement against gold and Bitcoin may be the only mathematical exit for the US balance sheet. You'll get his blunt read on the ColdCard incident and why "open source doesn't mean secure" in the age of AI — the most incentivized person to understand that code base was the attacker. You'll also learn why he thinks 2026 was never a real bull run, why prediction markets are just regulatory arbitrage on sports betting, and what El Salvador got right (and wrong) five years in.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:48 - Why Jack Is Bullish on Bitcoin
1:47 - Monetizing Chaos by Shorting Fiat
2:04 - Debt as Time Travel and Future Bills
4:43 - Why Public Adoption of Bitcoin Lags
5:17 - Strike Growing Despite Bear Market
6:21 - Why 2026 Was Not a Real Bull Run
7:52 - Why Younger Generations Resist Bitcoin
8:44 - Bitcoin as a Massive Wealth Transfer
11:26 - Savings Culture Versus Gambling Culture
13:07 - Gambling Ads, OnlyFans, and Robot Jobs
17:58 - Hunger for Savings Culture Emerging
18:10 - Family, Low Time Preference, and Bitcoin
21:43 - Robinhood, Meme Coins, and Marginal Speculators
24:23 - Prediction Markets as Sports Betting Arbitrage
26:52 - Why Self-Custody Efforts Often Fail
28:27 - El Salvador Bitcoin Adoption Wins and Losses
34:07 - Why Nations Avoid Copying El Salvador
38:06 - Bitcoin as America's Most American Tech
40:17 - Dollar's Structural Deficit Trap Explained
41:12 - China's Gold and Bitcoin Dollar Debasement
45:49 - Why Jack Glad Clarity Act Failed
47:53 - Fix: End World Reserve Currency Status
49:18 - Bitcoin Not Medium of Exchange First
55:20 - AI Threat to Open Source Security
57:33 - Open Source Alone Does Not Secure
1:02:09 - Just Use Bitcoin Core for Security
1:08:37 - Jack on Leaving Twenty One and Authenticity
1:14:47 - What Strike Is Building Now
1:20:04 - Closing Message to Bitcoiners

Guest: Jack Mallers of Strike

🔗 Links & Resources:
- Jack Mallers on X: https://x.com/jackmallers
- Strike: https://strike.me

⚡Previous Episode:
Zack Shapiro: https://youtu.be/iZ7e0hY0WL8

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOIN
https://qrco.de/bfiDC6

💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.
👉 Visit btcmentor.io

If this conversation gave you a new way to see the macro picture, join the regulars — subscribe for more long-form Bitcoin interviews and reply with your take on "monetizing chaos." Catch the previous episode with James Lavish and Doomberg linked in the cards.

#JackMallers #Bitcoin #BTCSessions #Strike #BTC #BitcoinMacro #DollarDebasement #MonetizingChaos #SoundMoney #BitcoinBearMarket #WorldReserveCurrency #PredictionMarkets #ElSalvadorBitcoin #Coldcard #OpenSourceSecurity #BitcoinCore #LightningNetwork #SelfCustody #TwentyOne