BTC Sessions

Mentor Sessions 093: Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden explain the 2026 global bond market crisis, private credit risk, yield curve control, and Bitcoin and gold as safe havens.

The global bond market is bleeding out in slow motion, and the real danger is buried in private credit that insurance companies can't sell without going insolvent. Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden break down why the long end of the Treasury market is grinding higher, why Scott Bessent intervened before any visible crisis, and what happens when trillion-dollar balance sheets finally hit the sell button.

You'll learn why China is the one nation conspicuously absent from the sovereign debt rout, how AI-driven deflation is reshaping Chinese manufacturing, and why Gromen argues the U.S. now faces a "Weimar gold reparations" problem with true interest expense at 105% of receipts. You'll see why both guests believe rate hikes are no longer even a usable tool under fiscal dominance, how a Blackrock "one phone call" scenario could freeze $5 trillion in a crisis, and where Bitcoin and gold fit as bearer assets when markets get locked down. Alden makes the case for holding scarce assets and extra cash through the air pockets; Gromen explains why he trimmed Bitcoin and exactly when he'd aggressively buy it back.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
1:12 - Treasury Event or Broader Sovereign Debt Crisis
1:34 - Why China Avoids the Global Bond Rout
2:00 - Hyperscalers Emerge as New Bond Vigilantes
3:41 - Path Leading to Yield Curve Control
4:15 - Why Chinese 10-Year Yields Hit Global Lows
6:00 - AI Driving Deflation in Chinese Manufacturing
10:17 - Orderly Bond Market Grind vs Sensationalized Crash
13:43 - The Dog That Didn't Bark in Bessent's Move
14:38 - Silent Crisis Brewing in Private Credit
15:38 - Insurance Insolvency Risk Triggers Treasury Sales
19:01 - Liquidity Versus Solvency in Private Funds
27:44 - Will Warsh Raise Rates This Cycle
29:43 - True Interest Expense Hits 105% of Receipts
33:43 - Rate Hikes Fail Against Fiscal Dominance
35:50 - Crack Spreads, Diesel and Physical Bottlenecks
37:37 - Wall Street Awakening to Fiscal Dominance
40:12 - BlackRock's $5 Trillion Lockdown Scenario
41:00 - Past the Point of No Return for Markets
45:47 - Non-Linear Reset Versus Slow Economic Spiral
50:19 - Physical Constraints in Beef and Refineries
54:05 - Gormen Adds Back Bitcoin After Selling
57:07 - Lyn Alden on Bitcoin and Gold Outlook

🔗 Links & Resources:
Lyn Alden: https://www.lynalden.com/
Luke Gromen: https://fftt-llc.com/

⚡Previous Episodes:
Michael Sullivan: https://youtu.be/wp5IYzcThUo
Tom Luongo: https://youtu.be/zkvdfR7LTuU

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🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

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Mentor Sessions 092: Michael Sullivan explains Bitcoin sentiment analysis, emotional cohort signals, OG optimism, narrative shifts, and why the data may point to a bottom.

Bitcoin sentiment just did something it rarely does after a 22% rip: it stayed calm. No euphoria, no desire spike, no retail flooding back — and that gap between the price move and the emotional data is where the real signal lives.

Michael Sullivan — an engineer and fiction writer turned Bitcoin sentiment analyst — breaks down how he tracks 14 distinct emotions across cohorts of Bitcoiners, from OGs and technologists to MSTR treasury speculators. You'll learn why he cohorts the crowd instead of scraping social media, why the Fear & Greed Index misses all the nuance, and why he reads OG optimism as one of the most reliable early signals that positive things are on the horizon. You'll see why 'desire' language sits inversely correlated with price, why the near-total absence of a new narrative can be wildly bullish near a bottom, and how the BIP-110 debate produced algorithmic engagement patterns that looked artificially farmed. He also lays out the AI-bubble-to-Bitcoin thesis and why he's personally bearish by instinct but bullish on the data.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:38 - Why this rally feels like disbelief
1:09 - Massive sentiment phase shift after crash
2:01 - Rally lacks expected euphoria levels
3:05 - Tracking caring language in ColdCard event
3:58 - Technologists impressed most during crisis
5:12 - Studying Saylor's four Bitcoin cohorts
6:33 - MSTR shareholders as conviction outlier
7:18 - OG optimism as reliable bullish signal
7:59 - Are OGs turning optimistic now
9:56 - Emotions linked to time and excitement
11:40 - Downturn negative language uniquely severe
12:40 - Desire language at market tops and bottoms
16:52 - How language analysis became his focus
19:11 - BIP-110 debate through psychology lens
21:09 - Algorithmic engagement that felt farmed
26:55 - AI bots distorting sentiment data
29:47 - Spotting leaders and narrative first movers
32:56 - Narratives shaping markets and price
34:37 - Absence of narrative as bullish signal
36:42 - Does price or emotion move first
40:03 - AI deflation versus Bitcoin scarcity thesis
40:30 - Euphoria missing at prior all-time high
45:17 - Bitcoiners versus treasury company speculators
50:07 - Conviction language versus hedging explained
54:03 - Denoising sarcasm with cohort analysis
59:31 - Signals needed to confirm bearish view
1:00:06 - Data pointing bullish over coming months
1:02:10 - Where to follow Michael's latest work

Michael writes deep analysis on Bitcoin sentiment and shares it on X and Substack — links below.

🔗 Links & Resources:
https://x.com/SullyMichaelvan

⚡Previous Episode - Tom Luongo: https://youtu.be/zkvdfR7LTuU

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.
👉 Visit btcmentor.io

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#Bitcoin #BitcoinSentiment #BTCSessions #BTC #MarketPsychology #MichaelSullivan #DisbeliefRally #BitcoinRally #BitcoinBottom #BitcoinCohorts #BitcoinOG #CryptoPsychology #FearAndGreed #NarrativeShifts #OnChainAnalysis #BitcoinAnalysis #CryptoSentiment #BitcoinTwitter #SelfCustody #BitcoinTreasury #MSTR #StackSats #BIP110 #BitcoinInterview

Mentor Sessions Ep. 091: Tom Luongo explains the 2026 currency war, Scott Bessent's yen bomb, oil collateral, European bond squeeze, and the US Treasury buyback plan.

The previously most powerful people in the world are now price takers, not price makers — and Tom Luongo walks through exactly how Scott Bessent flipped that switch. Global markets just witnessed a structural break in the European bond trade, and almost nobody saw the mechanism behind it.

In this conversation, Tom Luongo and Nathan break down the currency war unfolding across the FX and bond markets: how Bessent 'bombed the yen' by selling euros instead of dollars, why the euro-yen cross froze the moment Operation Epic Fury began, and how Iranian oil loadings were being used as collateral to fuel the short-yen, short-Treasury trade. You'll learn why the US Treasury buyback expansion is a signal and not QE, how the German Bund fits into Europe's alleged default-and-consolidate endgame, and what John Ratcliffe's open trip to Moscow may be telegraphing. You'll also hear Luongo's falsifiable macro thesis — where the 30-year yield goes next, and what it means for gold, silver and Bitcoin.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:44 - Bessent's Moves on Yen and Euro
1:27 - Shifting From Kinetic to Economic Siege
3:06 - The Yen Carry Trade That Shouldn't Exist
4:42 - Bessent Blew It Up Selling Euros
8:26 - Euro-Yen Cross Freezes After Iran Strikes
8:49 - Iranian Oil Used as Trade Collateral
11:17 - Traders Trapped After Buying Oil Breakout
12:59 - How Bessent Scans 270 Markets for Signals
18:05 - Treasury Buyback Expansion Details
22:04 - Defending the 5.25 Percent Yield Level
23:31 - Buyback Limit Is Just a Market Signal
27:15 - Europe's Default and ECB Consolidation Plan
28:45 - Financial Warfare and Carney's Trade War
29:40 - Abundant Mines Sponsor
33:20 - Banks Trading With Iran Cut From Dollars
38:01 - US Taxpayers Funding Global Financial Chaos
41:24 - Is the Budget Deficit Really Shrinking
45:17 - China Iran Canada Oil and Banking Links
47:46 - Why Ratcliffe Is Meeting Russia in Moscow
50:54 - BRICS as Hedge Not Dollar Replacement
53:33 - Gold Silver Bitcoin Surge Explained
55:20 - Pushing the Long End of Yields Lower
59:00 - Key Markets to Watch Through Election
1:00:14 - Reading the Charts That Actually Matter
1:01:16 - Luongo's Falsifiable Macro Thesis
1:02:38 - Where to Follow Tom Luongo

Tom Luongo publishes his macro analysis and the Gold, Goats 'n Guns newsletter — links below.

⚡Previous Episode - Jeff Booth & Scott Melker: https://youtu.be/J7ze_lMKbZM

🔗 Links & Resources:
• Tom Luongo on X: https://x.com/TFL1728
• Gold Goats 'n Guns blog: https://tomluongo.me

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.
👉 Visit btcmentor.io

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

#Bitcoin #ScottBessent #TomLuongo #Gold #Iran #MarkCarney #BondMarket #USTreasury #YenCarryTrade #CurrencyWar #FinancialWarfare #GlobalMacro #DollarSystem #Geopolitics #BTCSessions #OilCollateral #EuroDefault #GermanBund #KevinWarsh #Silver

Mentor Sessions Ep. 090: Jeff Booth and Scott Melker discuss Bitcoin adoption, ETF co-opting, the AI bubble, self-custody risk after the ColdCard hack, and the debt reset.

Wall Street, the ETFs, and the treasury companies are making every attempt to co-opt Bitcoin — and Jeff Booth and Scott Melker explain why that capture attempt may be exactly what Bitcoin needs to survive. The $350 trillion global debt pile is already insolvent, the AI bubble is still inflating, and self-custody just took a brutal reality check after the ColdCard fallout.

In this conversation you'll learn why Booth believes the existing system and Bitcoin cannot coexist over the long run, why he feels "incredible" even as price bleeds, and how the messy financialization of Bitcoin through institutions still funnels people toward spot self-custody. You'll hear Melker's honest read on adoption — that when arguments come down to "rolling dice for entropy," we are nowhere near mainstream — and Booth's thesis on why AI CapEx can never be paid back when the marginal cost of a line of code is zero. You'll also get a candid post-mortem on hardware wallet security, why "don't trust, verify" broke down for thousands of users, and what a new generation of self-custody solutions might look like.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:54 - Scott on adoption and why Bitcoin is strongest yet
3:08 - Did Covid pull forward Bitcoin demand like credit?
5:20 - Jeff Booth's first-principles case: $350T of insolvent debt
7:33 - Why Bitcoin and the centralizing system can't coexist
8:33 - If they can't kill it, they have to co-opt it
9:04 - Where each of us chooses to put our energy
11:44 - Does financialization actually risk decentralization?
12:11 - Scott's 2026 tweet on Bitcoin being co-opted
15:22 - Sticky narratives and gaining exposure to Bitcoin
15:49 - Scott's personal path from altcoins to Bitcoin
17:39 - Jeff on watching thousands make the same transition
18:14 - The rational actor trapped inside the system
22:32 - The abundance of deflation and killing the price story
26:07 - Ad: Abundant Mines
27:03 - What Wall Street friends really think of Bitcoin
28:09 - The ColdCard hack hits the Bloomberg terminal
30:09 - Will people flee to qualified custodians and ETFs?
31:11 - How far along the self-custody journey are we really?
33:05 - Rolling dice for entropy and the honesty test
35:47 - Self-custody as an active, ongoing responsibility
39:10 - How would you tell a beginner to custody Bitcoin in 2026?
40:42 - The brutal and beautiful side of the Bitcoin community
45:35 - Testing your recovery: move it, back it up, verify
47:13 - New private federation and settlement security models
48:41 - Scott's view of the AI markets and the coming bubble pop
51:26 - Jeff on marginal cost of code, why everything goes to free
55:14 - Orange juice, private equity, and moving businesses into Bitcoin
57:22 - Where to follow Scott and Jeff

🔗 Links & Resources:
• Follow Scott Melker on X: https://x.com/scottmelker
• Follow Jeff Booth: https://jeffbooth.com

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.
👉 Visit btcmentor.io

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #JeffBooth #ScottMelker #BitcoinSelfCustody #ColdCardHack #AIBubble #DebtCrisis #BitcoinETF #SoundMoney #FinalReset #BitcoinAdoption #Deflation #HardwareWallet #BitcoinInterview #BitcoinOnly #SelfCustody #BitcoinPrivacy #FreeMarket #BitcoinNodes #MacroBitcoin #BitcoinCooption #DecentralizedMoney #WoldOfAllStreets

Mentor Sessions Ep. 089: Bitcoin hardware wallet makers Zach Herbert, Tomas Susanka and Drew Fischer discuss the Coldcard hack, multi-sig, entropy and self-custody security.

The Coldcard hack was the single biggest blow to Bitcoin self-custody yet — so four rival hardware wallet makers sat down together to figure out what it means for everyone holding their own keys. This is the conversation the industry needed.

Zach Herbert (Foundation Passport), Tomas Susanka (Trezor), Drew Fischer (Blockstream Jade) and Seed from the SeedSigner team break down the fallout: what the vulnerability actually exposed, why open source alone wasn't the safety net people assumed, and the entropy/dice-roll debate that split the panel. You'll learn why multi-vendor multi-sig is emerging as the strongest defense, how entropy is really generated on these devices, and the honest trade-offs between usability and security. You'll also hear the fresh news on the Trezor fulfillment-partner data leak (disclosed August 10, 2026) and what to do if you're worried about shipping and privacy.

This is a rare, candid roundtable where competitors disagree openly — and that dialog is exactly what makes it worth your time.

⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:56 - Four wallet makers respond to Coldcard hack
1:58 - Ben's question on self-custody downstream effects
3:02 - Zach on short-term setback and great hardening
6:19 - Tomas on AI helping attackers and defenders
8:44 - Drew on custodians, ETFs and verify don't trust
10:30 - SeedSigner on entropy sources and multi-sig
13:11 - Usability versus security trade-off debate
17:20 - Should self-custody be made harder not easier
18:56 - Dice rolls versus RNG entropy disagreement
22:16 - Zach on how many people actually self-custody
26:14 - Priorities when choosing a hardware wallet
29:01 - Security as a journey not a destination
33:03 - Sponsor: Abundant Mines
36:00 - Why multi-vendor multi-sig should be the goal
41:25 - Source available versus fully open source explained
47:34 - Open source as required but not sufficient
51:11 - How to know if a wallet is actually safe
56:57 - Trezor fulfillment data leak disclosed August 10
1:03:49 - Private device purchases and local meetups
1:06:01 - Where to find each project online

🔗 Links & Resources:
→ SeedSigner: https://seedsigner.com
→ Foundation Passport: https://foundation.xyz/
→ Trezor: https://trezor.io
→ Blockstream Jade: https://blockstream.com/jade

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.
👉 Visit btcmentor.io

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #BitcoinSelfCustody #ColdCard #ColdcardHack #BitcoinHack #HardwareWallet #MultiSig #SeedSigner #Trezor #Passport #BlockstreamJade #BitcoinSecurity #NotYourKeys #ZachHerbert #TomasSusanka