Cloud Wars Live with Bob Evans

In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I analyze the extraordinary RPO growth at Microsoft, Oracle, Google Cloud, and AWS and what it signals about AI demand.

Highlights

00:03 — We've got another example here where, in the greatest growth market the world has ever known, we are working with some big numbers that put the law of big numbers to the test here. So, if you look at the four hyperscalers, and I go in order of the size of their backlog or RPO, you've got Microsoft, Oracle, Google Cloud, and AWS.

00:29 — So this is fully committed business. It's fully contracted and not yet recognized as revenue. So this is what's coming down the road, to look into the pipeline, in the future, these companies have — this isn't some guesstimate of what they hope they'll get. This is signed, contracted business. So this is one of the factors, probably the key factor, behind why you see these CapEx numbers approaching or exceeding $200 billion.

01:09 — Now that has led to a couple of these companies entering into the debt markets to try to fund this data center expansion and all that enormous CapEx outlay that they've got to go through. In turn, a couple of these companies for a quarter or two had negative cash flows, and that's got some people on Wall Street unable to comprehend it. The world's coming to an end. What are we going to do?

01:46 — I think the perspective is being switched here, right? Traditionally, the idea is bad. You don't want to have negative cash flow. Okay, that's pretty basic. I think we got that. The difference is there have never been a market with a size, a total addressable market , anything like this, growing at the rate this is. Look at these latest numbers for the four hyperscalers.

02:23 — Oracle, off a much smaller revenue base, has this huge future business coming in: $638 billion in RPO, growing at 363%. Google Cloud had a huge jump this past Q2, $514 billion in backlog, up 390%, and a resurgent AWS posted its biggest backlog number ever, $496 billion, and I believe that growth rate of 154% for its backlog is much higher than any they've reported over the last five or six quarters.

04:07 — So I think it's significant, but I also think it's being vastly overblown. I just want to say one more time: $2.3 trillion. Now, that's not like a TAM figure. Somebody's saying, "Oh, we think the market for new scooters is going to be $2.3 trillion." These are four companies, just four , not the whole tech industry, and these are their signed, contracted, committed figures for what they've got in their backlog or RPO.

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In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I compare Google Cloud, Microsoft, and AWS to reveal which hyperscaler is winning the most new business.

Highlights

00:15 — While all of them had terrific quarters, I'd have to rate it this way: Google Cloud was far and away the best. AWS had a terrific quarter, especially for the way it had been performing before that. Microsoft, at its phenomenal size, had a very good quarter. It's just not growing as quickly, not winning as much new types of business in that way, as the other two.

01:44 — So we had Microsoft go from $54.5 billion to $59.3 billion. So it added $4.8 billion in new revenue in Q2. For Google Cloud, $20 billion to $24.8 billion; it also added $4.8 billion. AWS, $37.6 billion to $42.2 billion. It added $4.6 billion.

02:32 — Yet Google Cloud gained as much new revenue last quarter as Microsoft did, and Google Cloud gained more new revenue than AWS did. So we find that the mix of products and services, the fit to what businesses need right now, Google Cloud is matching what Microsoft's doing, matching or exceeding what AWS is doing. So the size differential is becoming less significant now.

03:27 — What we see with this analysis of the numbers is that Microsoft is not continuing to extend that size differential. The others are chopping into that, and particularly for Google Cloud, at this size and with its growth rate, we see that happening. So, you know, how is this possible? And I think it all comes down to this notion of, you know, the customers have a terrific set of choices here.

05:02 — But in terms of — you look right here, right now — the new business that Google Cloud is winning, they are matching or beating their competitors here, and I think we're going to see that continue with the momentum that Google Cloud has.

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In today's Cloud Wars AI Minute, I explain how Microsoft's AI agent momentum could transform business applications at scale.

Highlights

00:00 — So we're now hearing, according to Microsoft, that it has 40 million agents deployed now in the Microsoft ecosystem. Now compare that to the 30 million seats that it actually has sold for the M365 Copilot, and that really starts to show us that AI agent creation and things of this nature are starting to take off when we're starting to see more than one-to-one ratios here.

00:33 — So this is a really big situation for Microsoft. It's actually a really good signal that custom agents and agents that are being built are starting to get more value off the backside. Now we can't necessarily completely get to this level because what you'll see is a lot of these agents are probably really simple right now.

00:54 — But with some of the new applications coming out and the focus that Microsoft also came out and announced — that they are looking at going through and producing a Super App Copilot — and this was something that Satya Nadella just talked about in the news just last week.

01:13 — So when we think about this and we start thinking about how is it that Microsoft's going to start combining all of its different Copilot assets or its AI agent assets, it really opens up a door where we might start seeing a much bigger multiplier effect happening on the number of agents created.

01:32 — Due to the fact that they're going to make it not so confusing to be able to determine where to get started and be able to help you get this all down. So this is really exciting news, and it's really a good thing for why you should start looking and understanding these agents because they're really starting to take off as business applications themselves.

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In today’s Cloud Wars Minute, I break down Microsoft’s push to protect open-weight AI models and why the debate over openness could shape the future of the AI ecosystem.

Highlights

00:09 — Microsoft is among more than 20 tech companies, including NVIDIA, Meta, and Palantir, that have issued an open letter urging U.S. lawmakers to slow down in placing restrictions on open-weight AI models. These are models that users can modify and run on their own infrastructure.

00:38 — The backlash from the companies comes in light of discussions within the U.S. government about potentially restricting access to Chinese open-weight AI models in the U.S. The administration's floated the idea of potential restrictions or sanctions involving Chinese open-weight models around concerns about copying other AI models, intellectual property theft, and national security.

01:06 — The tech companies that signed the letter argue that open-weight models strengthen competition, and with technology benefits broadly shared instead of being concentrated into a few hands, and that, in fact, relying entirely on closed models is not inherently safe because they can be breached, misused, or fail in ways that outsiders can't detect.

01:30 — They say that keeping AI advancements in a small circle of companies just compounds that risk. Sharing the letter on his personal X account, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said, "Open-weight models are essential to a healthy AI ecosystem. Together with others across our industry, we are outlining a path for open-weight models to strengthen American competitiveness and expand economic opportunity while protecting national security."

02:14 — This is yet another example of how the democratization of AI is being promoted by tech companies. In my opinion, the idea of collaboration and openness has made it much easier for the public to trust AI. Not only does this strengthen the position of the companies themselves, but it also means that more people will benefit safely and securely from the potential of AI technologies.

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In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I look at why Palantir's AI strategy is resonating with customers and disrupting the software industry's established order.

Highlights

00:03 — Well, we had a fascinating earnings report and earnings call with Palantir recently. A couple of things happened. Its growth rate soared. It almost doubled its growth in Q2, up 93% to over $1.8 billion.

00:19 — But intriguingly, the story behind this growth now is one that CEO Alex Karp is doubling down on, and that is to cut directly against the grain of how traditionally the software industry has worked. He feels that there's too much power being consolidated among the tech vendors, particularly now the AI labs and the AI model companies.

00:55 — Now, is there a direct correlation between the 93% growth rate and this refreshing, new, different customer-oriented approach from Palantir? I think there is. Whether you think Karp's antagonism toward the entrenched order is overblown or not, you've got to look at the financial results. Palantir is outperforming every major tech vendor on Earth.

02:36 — What Karp is promising, he said, what Palantir is offering, is a new, better way that allows customers to keep control of that data, keep the benefits of that data, keep what he calls the alpha, and let them control their own outcomes instead of turning over their data to model companies.

04:36 — I just find myself throughout the call listening and watching Karp, who always wears a white T-shirt. He is just completely unabashed in not holding back and stating his opinions. I think we need more of that in this business, especially at these very critical times when businesses are betting their futures on what's going to happen here.

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