THINK aloud is a podcast by ING Global Research hosted by Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne. Subscribe to hear expert analysis on the global economy, monetary policy,...
Why a Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar could be an act of self-harm
The root cause of America's economic imbalances can be traced to a single factor: the strength of the US dollar. At least, that’s the view of Stephen Miran, President Trump’s newly appointed Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.In an essay published late last year, Miran argued that the dollar's strength, driven by inelastic demand for Treasuries and the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency, has resulted in persistently cheap imports, reduced the competitiveness of its exports, eroded US manufacturing, and resulted in soaring deficits.His answer to this problem is a so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, where trading partners would sell dollars and US Treasuries from their FX reserves or face higher tariffs and the removal of security guarantees.But is an overvalued dollar really to blame for America’s financial problems? Would trading partners agree to the plan? And what could it mean for the US markets? In this podcast, ING’s Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey explain why they think the plan would be counterproductive and fraught with risk.
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16:58
Europe's road to rearmament
President Trump’s decision to temporarily suspend military support for Ukraine, coupled with his implicit threat to withdraw US forces from Europe unless Nato allies increase their defence spending, has upended the near 80-year transatlantic alliance, and left European countries scrambling to respond.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for a ‘surge’ in defence spending and said nothing is off the table when it comes to raising money. Last week, she unveiled an €800bn plan to allow member states to increase spending and borrow money for defence purposes without violating the bloc’s strict budget rules. But some EU member states have already pushed back, with highly indebted countries like Italy worried about the financial strain of the plan and Germany concerned about the implications for its fiscal conservatism.So who will pay, how much will they pay, and what will it all mean for Europe’s economy, markets, and security?In this podcast, ING’s Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski and Netherlands' Chief Economist Bert Colijn discuss the hard political and financial choices ahead for Europe and the chances of success.
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18:18
Commodities Outlook 2025: How Trump's policies, Russian sanctions, and China's economic slowdown will shape the market
In this podcast, ING commodities analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey share their views on the outlook for energy, metals, and agriculture in the year ahead.
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22:28
Economic Outlook 2025: Trump, Trade Wars, and Tense Politics
A new US president, trade war threats, political instability in Europe, and mounting fiscal concerns obscure the outlook for the global economy in 2025. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss the themes that will shape the economy, inflation, and interest rates over the coming year.
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20:50
Make Aluminium Green Again
Aluminium is an essential metal in our daily lives. It also plays a crucial role in the energy transition, and demand is soaring. But producing aluminium is highly energy-intensive, and urgent action is needed to reduce the industry's carbon footprint. In this podcast, ING's Ewa Manthey, Egor Fedorov, and Coco Zhang discuss the ongoing efforts to make the industry more sustainable.
THINK aloud is a podcast by ING Global Research hosted by Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne. Subscribe to hear expert analysis on the global economy, monetary policy, and financial markets, that you won't find anywhere else.
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