The US dollar's historic plunge has sent ripples across global currency markets. As its dominance falters, investors everywhere are asking, how far could it fall - and who stands to gain? In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, ING's Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky, and Deepali Bhargava share their views.
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15:11
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15:11
Tariff gambit shifts to August. Then what?
President Donald Trump this week delayed the planned 9 July tariff hikes on US imports, notifying 22 countries that rates could rise as much as 50% on 1 August.The White House had paused these measures for 90 days to pursue trade deals, but since Trump’s so-called Liberation Day announcement on 2 April, only three agreements have been reached. ING’s Inga Fechner says the new deadline, which Trump has described as firm, but not 100% firm, prolongs the uncertainty for business and consumers around the world. James Knightley says this is weighing on US economic growth - with GDP forecasts for 2025 markedly lower than at the start of the year. For now at least, markets are taking the news in stride, having recovered from the extreme volatility seen in April. But Padhraic Garvey says tariff-induced inflation and worries about fiscal sustainability present a difficult backdrop for US Treasuries. In this week’s THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, we look at the future of so-called reciprocal tariffs, potential sector-specific tariffs, the legal uncertainties ahead, the threat of retaliation and the broader impact on the global economy and financial markets.
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24:04
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24:04
Iran-Israel ceasefire holds but risks remain
A US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel sent oil prices tumbling this week, as traders and investors bet that the bombing campaigns are over and that the crucial Strait of Hormuz - through which 21 million barrels of oil pass each day -will not be disrupted.The drop in oil prices is good news for global growth – and for inflation, potentially giving central banks in Europe and the US some breathing room to cut interest rates later this year.But is the crisis really over? Or have the risks simply evolved? With geopolitical tensions still simmering, do investors ned to price in a more persistent risk premium? In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson unpacks the outlook for oil, Bert Colijn explores the economic impact, and Francesceo Pesole looks at what it all means for the dollar.
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16:13
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16:13
The Trump Effect: A global economy gripped by uncertainty
President Trump's unpredictable trade policy has undermined confidence and deepened uncertainty across the global economy this year. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss the outlook for the US, eurozone and UK economies in this new, uncharted territory while Chris Turner looks at the implications for financial markets.
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30:24
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30:24
China's playbook for US trade talks
Officials from China and the US will meet in Switzerland this week to de-escalate a trade war that has disrupted global supply chains, deepened economic uncertainty, and triggered significant market volatility. In this podcast, ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, discusses how the talks could unfold, and the impact of the tariffs on China’s economy this year and beyond.
THINK aloud is a podcast by ING Global Research hosted by Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne. Subscribe to hear expert analysis on the global economy, monetary policy, and financial markets, that you won't find anywhere else.
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