A US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel sent oil prices tumbling this week, as traders and investors bet that the bombing campaigns are over and that the crucial Strait of Hormuz - through which 21 million barrels of oil pass each day -will not be disrupted.The drop in oil prices is good news for global growth – and for inflation, potentially giving central banks in Europe and the US some breathing room to cut interest rates later this year.But is the crisis really over? Or have the risks simply evolved? With geopolitical tensions still simmering, do investors ned to price in a more persistent risk premium? In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson unpacks the outlook for oil, Bert Colijn explores the economic impact, and Francesceo Pesole looks at what it all means for the dollar.
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The Trump Effect: A global economy gripped by uncertainty
President Trump's unpredictable trade policy has undermined confidence and deepened uncertainty across the global economy this year. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss the outlook for the US, eurozone and UK economies in this new, uncharted territory while Chris Turner looks at the implications for financial markets.
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China's playbook for US trade talks
Officials from China and the US will meet in Switzerland this week to de-escalate a trade war that has disrupted global supply chains, deepened economic uncertainty, and triggered significant market volatility. In this podcast, ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, discusses how the talks could unfold, and the impact of the tariffs on China’s economy this year and beyond.
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19:55
Corporate bonds caught in tariff turmoil
President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2nd, a 90-day pause for most countries yet with escalating tariffs on China, exemptions on tech products from China, and later, news that these exemptions may only be temporary have left investors deeply unsettled.While much of the focus last week was on soaring Treasury yields and falling stock markets, corporate bonds were hit hard, too.Spreads on corporate bonds widened by the most since the regional banking crisis two years ago, as investors demanded higher returns in a riskier, more unpredictable environment.Bond funds have seen huge outflows and the market for new issues of debt has all but ground to a halt.In this podcast, ING's Credit Strategist Tim Rahill explains why he remains so cautious about the market and why investors need to be selective.
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What Trump's tariffs mean for Central and Eastern Europe
US-EU tariffs are a threat to the export-driven economies of Central and Eastern Europe.But ING economists argue that the region has ways to manage the disruption, and a trade war could serve as a much-needed catalyst for change. In this podcast, a replay of our live webinar, ING’s Inga Fechner, Peter Virovacz, David Havrlant, Rafal Benecki, Valentin Tataru, and Muhammet Mercan explain why they think the region could prove to be more resilient than most expect.
THINK aloud is a podcast by ING Global Research hosted by Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne. Subscribe to hear expert analysis on the global economy, monetary policy, and financial markets, that you won't find anywhere else.
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