Optimist Economy

Since the U.S. Supreme Court let states legalize betting on sports in 2018, gambling has exploded. More than half of men ages 18 to 49 say they have an active account with an online sportsbook. Want to bet on a game, a play, or even an individual performance? The bookie is always open on your phone, and it sends promo credits to keep you in the game. Young men see the harm up close. The share of men under 30 who call legal sports betting bad for society has more than doubled since 2022, to 47%. Built to be addictive, sports betting is like cigarettes—and deserves a public health response. 

Chapters:

00:01:02 Announcements
00:02:27 Retcon: Healthcare moral hazard vs. cost-sharing; networks and military branches
00:07:37 Terms & Conditions: Handle, the hold, and the tulip bubble
00:12:52 Big Pilcrow: Sports betting, prediction markets, and addiction
00:41:42 Executive Orders: Free museum entry for union members; kid-sized sink staircases
00:44:26 Spiritual Sponsors: Hermanos Gutiérrez; good procedural movies

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Over a year into the administration's anti-immigration agenda, we’re seeing the economic fallout. For the first time in at least 50 years, estimates are that we lost immigrants on net; far fewer than usual arrived and a somewhat higher than usual number left. But if anyone benefited from that shift, it wasn’t U.S.-born workers. Even against the backdrop of our weak labor market, foreign-born workers now have slightly lower unemployment rates and higher labor market participation than they did two years ago. Their wages have also ticked up. Meanwhile, reduced population growth has thrown the country’s economic benchmarks into chaos, making it harder to interpret job creation, GDP, and the health of the labor market.

Chapters:
00:00:50 Announcements: Send us your anticipated Thanksgiving dinner fights
00:01:45 Retcon: Consumer sentiment update, auto-enrollment for Trump Accounts 
00:07:43 Terms & Conditions: Plutocratic
00:08:42 Big Pilcrow: Immigration and the Economy
00:36:38 Executive Orders: “The media isn’t covering this” comments; best-of award for bookstore tote bags.
00:38:31 Spiritual Sponsors: Sonoratown and an IPA on tap

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The Consumer Sentiment Index has tracked how Americans experience the U.S. economy through bouts of runaway inflation, a mortgage crisis, stock market bubbles, and six recessions. And yet the scores right now are lower than at any of those moments. After nearly 50 years of tracking by the University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment has broken through the basement. Beneath the five index questions are some clues as to why: Since 2008, the number of people who say the government is doing a poor job has grown from about a third to about three-quarters. This dissatisfaction has been a slow burn — and it’s also evidence that Americans are ready for bold, non-incremental economic change.

0:00 — Opening
6:25 — Retcon: Vacation Days & Moral Hazard in Healthcare
11:18 — Terms & Conditions: Likert Scale
14:24 — The Big Pilcrow: What’s Consumer Sentiment Telling Us?
17:20 — Record Lows: Sentiment Breaks From the Other Economic Metrics
20:54 — The Five Index Questions: Take Consumer Sentiment Survey Yourself!
26:55 — How’s the Government Doing Managing the Economy? Survey says…Poor
29:39 — It's the Economy, Stupid
31:16 — Partisanship Cancels Itself Out
33:11 — Why This Isn't the Same as What Happened to Biden
35:25 — Who Does Feel Good?
36:07 — Low Sentiment Deserves Big Policy
38:07 — Executive Orders: Hold the reservation. Too many eggs. 
41:52 — Spiritual Sponsors: So, so many
47:17 — Credits

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(Originally aired June 10, 2025) The national debt is $36 trillion. That could be a panic-inducing big number. So maybe it will help to understand how we ran up that debt. We've blown 37% of it on tax cuts, with precious little to show for that. But 28% went to stabilize the economy during two major crises (in ‘08-’09 and during the COVID pandemic), which is when you do want the federal government to pull out its credit card. Good news is we don’t have to get the debt to zero. We just need to get it moving in that direction. And for listeners waiting for MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) to make a cameo, that moment has arrived. 
Support Optimist Economy by becoming a paid Substack subscriber here, or by making a contribution at https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy
Complete show notes with links to articles and data at optimisteconomy.com.
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Read more:

From Riches to Rags: Causes of Fiscal Deterioration Since 2001 [Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, 2024]

Economic Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act [Congressional Research Service, 2025]

Is Modern Monetary Theory Nutty or Essential? [The Economist, 2019]
Is This What Winning Looks Like?: Modern Monetary Theory, the buzziest economic idea in decades, got a pandemic tryout of sorts. Now inflation is testing its limits. [New York Times, 2022]

Optimist Economy is on break this month, but we know that optimist listeners are interested in tales of economic history, issues of inequality and movements for change. So we thought some of you might enjoy "Occupy!" a six-part narrative series about  Occupy Wall Street, the 2011 protest village that lasted nearly two months and turned a spotlight on systemic economic inequality in the U.S.
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EPISODE 1: An Invitation
In 2011, a handful of skeptical New Yorkers answer a call to Occupy Wall Street. What they find feels less like a protest and more like a glimpse of a different world—one where people openly share stories of debt, hardship, and frustration. They start to build an anti-capitalist village in a tiny Manhattan park — under the watchful eyes of police. This is the first episode of Future Hindsight’s brand new 6-part series, OCCUPY! An Unfinished Uprising. Subscribe to Future Hindsight wherever you get your podcasts so you don’t miss a single episode!
Want to dive deeper? Listen to these episodes of Future Hindsight:

For a conversation on activism with a co-founder of Occupy Wall Street, tune in to this episode with Micah White: https://www.futurehindsight.com/episodes/episode/micah-white

For a recap of how American capitalism evolved into what it is today, listen to this episode with Kurt Andersen: https://www.futurehindsight.com/episodes/episode/americas-evil-geniuses-kurt-andersen

On solidarity and mutual aid, listen to this conversation with Manuel Pastor: https://www.futurehindsight.com/episodes/episode/solidarity-and-mutuality-manuel-pastor

Credits:

Host / Executive Producer: Mila Atmos

Producer / Writer: Maria Luisa Tucker

Audio Producer: Zack Travis

Additional production help: Mia Warren, Erika Gjada, Megan Detrie, Lizzie Jacobs, and Ilya Magazanin

Archival research: Marisa Holmes

Archival material courtesy of: Occupy Wall Street Media Working Group.

Original music: Rude Mechanical Orchestra and Puge Ruhe

Special thanks to T.J. Raphael, Lauren Passell, Arielle Nissenblatt, and Kate Blumenfeld for being our first listeners and sounding boards, and to Tom Koenig for his support. 
Distributed by PRX.