Risk Parity Radio

• Episode 464: More Fun With Leverage, Bad Advisor Incentives, Working With A Substandard 401k And Portfolio Reviews As Of November 7, 2025

  In this episode we answer emails from Dave, Isaiah, and Ian.  We discuss back-testing tools, revisit UPRO and leverage from the last episode, the inherent biases and incentives for retail financial advisors to recommend underspending and using underspending plans larded with window dressings, and revisit a limited 401k and a retirement scenario from Episodes 420 and 444.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterPortfolio Visualizer Backtester:  Backtest Portfolio Asset AllocationTestfolio Backtester:  testfol.ioBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Think your withdrawal rate is just a number? We dig into why the path matters more than the headline, showing how 0%, 3%, and 6% withdrawals change resilience without altering which portfolios dominate across different eras. Then we pull apart the leverage mirage: why 3x S&P funds can look unbeatable in calm runs yet suffer brutal volatility drag and catastrophic left tails when the decade turns against you. The goal isn’t fear—it’s sizing risk so you don’t bet your future on luck.We also wade into the psychology of advice. Even fee-only planners face incentives to keep clients underspending, leaning on cash-heavy buckets, retirement “paychecks,” and tidy jargon that soothes but often costs performance. If you’re wired for DIY, you’ll appreciate a finance-first approach: let evidence drive the allocation, not marketing hooks. We contrast retail comfort with institutional discipline and offer a practical way to align your plan with the results you actually want.For listeners wrestling with constrained 401k menus, we map out how to approximate risk parity using the levers that matter most: low-cost stock and core bond indexes, selective value tilts, and tax-aware placement. We touch Roth versus traditional choices when you’re in a low bracket, how to secure your FI core, and why continuing to work a decade after reaching FI might mean it’s time to spend more on life, not just accumulate more line items.We close with a sharp market rundown and performance across sample portfolios, from classic diversifiers to levered blends. If you want a clear-eyed, practical framework for withdrawals, leverage, advisor incentives, and building robust portfolios with imperfect tools, this conversation will sharpen your plan. If it resonates, follow the show, leave a review, and share it with a friend who needs a finance-first reset.Support the show

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• Episode 463: Pros And Cons of Leverage, Tax Buckets, Small Cap Value And Retirement Spending Frameworks

  In this episode we answer emails from Roman, Andrew and Iain.  We discuss the plusses and minuses of leverage, volatility drag, and how leverage interacts with diversification and withdrawals, general observation on tax optimization via account buckets, small cap value index funds and Avantis/DFA merits, and modelling annuities versus mandatory versus discretionary spending in retirement.LInks:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterBen Felix Leverage Video:  Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs)Leveraged ETFs Paper:  Double-Digit Numerics - Articles - The Big Myth about Leveraged ETFsOptimized Portfolios Article/Website:  How To Beat the Market Using Leverage and Index InvestingJim Sandidge Chaos Theory Applied to Drawdowns:  RMJ081-ChaosAndRetirementSecurity.pdf"Buffet's Alpha" Paper:  Full article: Buffett’s AlphaNew Tax Planning In Early Retirement Book:  Amazon.com: Tax Planning To and Through Early Retirement: 9798999841599: Garrett, Cody, Mullaney, Sean: BooksMerriman Best IN Class ETF Selections:  Best ETFs 2025 | Merriman Financial Education FoundationBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Ever wonder why leverage looks brilliant during bull markets but feels brutal the moment you start withdrawing cash? We break down the promise and pitfalls of adding leverage to diversified, risk parity-style portfolios, then show how the math of volatility drag and sequence risk can quietly erode safe withdrawal rates. It’s an honest tour of what works in accumulation, what breaks in retirement, and how to engineer a calmer path without surrendering all upside.We start with the straight talk: leverage and concentration are the two proven routes to outperformance, but only one of them can be paired safely with broad diversification. From hedge fund history to the “Aggressive 50/50” experiment, you’ll hear why high-octane blends can top the charts and then stall after deep losses, especially when distributions force selling at the worst times. We contrast that with return stacking and measured leverage, which aim for equity-like returns with better risk control, and we share practical tools—rebalancing discipline, cash buffers, and dynamic spending bands—to keep a drawdown portfolio intact.Taxes matter just as much as tickers. We walk through Roth vs traditional contributions, why present marginal rates and future flexibility drive the choice, and how to place bonds smartly across tax buckets. On the equity side, we revisit small cap value: why classic S&P 600 value exposure is solid, and how AVUV and DFA’s profitability filters can sharpen the factor without turning it into active guesswork. Then we turn to spending: build the plan around real expenses, not theoretical annuities. Set a durable floor for essentials, keep a flexible layer for the fun stuff, and consider partial annuitization later in life if longevity and peace of mind are worth the trade.Support the show

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• Episode 462: Creating Your Own Sample Portfolio, Asset Swaps With Cash, Low-Bar-Setting Financial Advisors, And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 31, 2025

  In this episode we answer emails from Jess, Phil and Scott.  We discuss an experience of setting up a sample RPR portfolio for one's self, using asset swaps to manage cash, and fun with the low bar standards and other inadequacies of many financial advisors.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterHow To Do An Asset Swap Video from Risk Parity Chronicles:  How to Do an Asset SwapBigger Pockets Money Test Risk Parity Style Portfolio:  We Built a 5% SWR Retirement Portfolio Using Fidelity in 48 Minutes (Golden Ratio Portfolio)Excess Returns Podcast With Rick Ferri (forward to minute 49):  Most Never Escape Stage 3 | Rick Ferri on How You Can Beat the Complexity TrapBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Tired of being told that everything beyond a three-fund portfolio is “too hard”? We pull back the curtain on practical tools that make DIY investing simpler in practice, not smaller in ambition. Starting with a listener’s test portfolios, we show how hands-on experience beats theory, why diversification means loving today’s winners and tomorrow’s comebacks, and how to turn rebalancing into reliable cash flow.We go deep on asset location and the overlooked power of asset swaps. By “selling here, buying there,” you can keep your overall mix unchanged while moving ordinary income into tax-deferred accounts and positioning equities in taxable for qualified dividends and capital gains. If you’ve been parking big cash balances in a HYSA and wondering why your tax bill keeps creeping up, this segment is your blueprint for tax efficiency without extra risk.Then we tackle withdrawal rates with clear eyes. Many advisors still anchor to 3 percent for retirees in their 60s. We explain why diversified, risk parity style allocations can responsibly target closer to 5 percent over long horizons, especially when you harvest from strength. Case in point: trimming gold after a powerful run to fund November distributions across our sample portfolios. We share market snapshots, what’s leading and lagging, and how a rules-based process keeps emotion out of the driver’s seat.If you want an investing plan that funds a life—relationships, experiences, generosity—rather than an accounting hobby, this conversation is your on-ramp. Subscribe, share with a friend who needs a nudge to start that test portfolio, and leave a review telling us your target withdrawal rate and why.Support the show

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• Episode 461: Transitioning To Forever Plans, SCHD And Bitcoin, Our Purpose For Value, And When To Make Adjustments (Probably Never)

  In this episode we answer emails from Tyson, Patrick, and Shuchi.  We discuss the basics of transitioning, SCHD as a value fund choice, bitcoin vs. gold, why "only works for 30 years" is a fake problem, the difference between our use of value funds vs. Paul Merriman's, and when would me make adjustments to our plans in retirement.Links:Bigger Pockets Money Podcast #1:  The Secret to a 5% Safe Withdrawal Rate | Frank VasquezBigger Pockets Money Podcast #2:  We Built a 5% SWR Retirement Portfolio Using Fidelity in 48 Minutes (Golden Ratio Portfolio)Morningstar Analysis of SCHD:  SCHD Stock - Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF | MorningstarGolden Ratio Portfolio on Portfolio Charts:  Golden Ratio Portfolio – Portfolio ChartsRetirement Spending Calculator:  Retirement Spending – Portfolio ChartsDrawdowns Calculator:  Drawdowns – Portfolio ChartsMichael Batnick Critique of CAPE Ratio "Predictions":  Stocks Are More Expensive Than They Used to BeBreathless AI-Bot Summary:A plan that survives contact with the market looks different from the one you sketch on a napkin. We break down the 80 percent FI pivot—why shifting from an aggressive accumulation mix to a retirement-ready allocation a few years early can defuse sequence risk without surrendering growth—and show how to decide when to pull that lever without second-guessing every blip.We also tackle one of the most popular questions right now: can Bitcoin replace gold? Short answer: not for core diversification. Gold’s role as a Basel III Tier 1 reserve asset and its central bank demand make it a unique stabilizer in a way that risk-on assets can’t duplicate. Bitcoin behaves more like a levered tech proxy, which is interesting for satellite bets but insufficient as an anchor. On equities, we explain why splitting the stock sleeve between growth and value—think a broad growth-leaning fund paired with a true value fund like SCHD—creates the performance dispersion that fuels rebalancing gains during stress, raising durability without betting on factor outperformance.If the 30-year rule worries you, breathe. Withdrawal rates flatten as horizons extend, and real-world retiree inflation typically runs 1 to 2 percent below CPI, offsetting the longer timeline. Add simple guardrails—pausing raises, trimming discretionary spend in bad years—and you can boost sustainability by about a percentage point. The key is to know your portfolio’s historical drawdown depth and length, set bright lines for action, and avoid valuation-based fortune-telling. Diversification and disciplined rebalancing beat crystal balls.If you found this helpful, follow the show, leave a review, and share it with a friend planning their FI transition. Your support helps more DIY investors build portfolios designed to last for life.Support the show

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• Episode 460: Pulling The SWR Levers In A Retirement Scenario, Test Portfolios, HSAs, And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 24, 2025

  In this episode we answer emails from Eva, Jess and Mr. Toxic.  We discuss the three levers of safe withdrawal rates applied to a listener's upcoming retirement situation, running test risk parity style portfolios to get some practice like with have done with Bigger Pockets money, and what little we know about HSAs.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterHow To Do An Asset Swap Video from Risk Parity Chronicles:  How to Do an Asset SwapJackie Cummings Koski on Investing with HSAs:  Investing With The Health Savings Account - Define Your Legacy W/ Jackie Cummings KoskiBigger Pockets Money Test Risk Parity Style Portfolio:  We Built a 5% SWR Retirement Portfolio Using Fidelity in 48 Minutes (Golden Ratio Portfolio)Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Most retirement plans stumble not on math, but on mechanics. We sit down with a listener who’s 55, VTI-heavy in a taxable account, and ready to pivot into a modified golden ratio portfolio—then unpack a practical path to move from concentration to resilient diversification without lighting up a massive tax bill. Along the way, we map out the three levers that quietly raise your safe withdrawal rate: portfolio design, baseline expenses, and personal inflation that often runs 1–2% below CPI.We get specific on asset location and reallocation: placing treasuries and managed futures in tax-deferred accounts, using gold and equities where they’re most tax-efficient, and gradually trimming VTI by targeting favorable tax lots and capital gains brackets. If you’ve wondered whether a small cap value tilt can help, we explain how it can reduce volatility and lift a portfolio’s historical withdrawal capacity by roughly 0.5–1%—and how to pursue it at a measured pace. We also clear up a common confusion: rebalancing returns you to your target mix; reallocating changes the target itself.Then we turn to HSAs. They’re a triple tax-advantaged powerhouse for you, but a poor inheritance vehicle for kids who must recognize the balance as income in a single year. We break down the strategy of saving receipts, the shift at age 65 when non-medical withdrawals are IRA-like, and why timing HSA spending for higher-income retirement years often makes sense. Don’t count on a costly end-of-life to “use it up”—many don’t have that trajectory. A smarter approach draws down the HSA earlier for qualified costs and Medicare premiums while avoiding a tax bomb for heirs.We wrap with weekly portfolio reviews across classic and levered models and a reminder that simple beats clever: a resilient allocation, tax-savvy placement, and flexible spending can carry you from early retirement through Social Security and beyond. If this helped tighten your plan, follow the show, leave a review, and share it with a friend who’s staring down a VTI-heavy portfolio and wondering where to start.Support the show

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