Scaling Theory

Welcome back to scaling theory. My guest today is ⁠Scott E. Page⁠, Distinguished University Professor of Complexity, Social Science, and Management at the University of Michigan, and an external faculty member at the Santa Fe Institute. He is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a recipient of the Guggenheim Fellowship. His books include The Difference, Diversity and Complexity, The Diversity Bonus, and The Model Thinker.
In this episode of Scaling Theory, Scott walks us through what complexity actually is. He unpacks the difference between complicated and genuinely complex systems, explains why cognitively diverse teams systematically outperform homogeneous ones on complex tasks, and what that means for how organizations scale. We also take up path dependence, the spillover effects of overlapping games across platform ecosystems, and where complexity tools have changed real decisions in practice. We close on the single open problem whose resolution would most reshape our understanding of social systems. As you will hear, Scott’s thinking is exceptionally clear. It is always a pleasure to talk with him and to listen to his insights. I hope you enjoy our discussion.
You can follow me on X (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠).
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Books
Page, S.E. (2007). The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies. Princeton University Press.
Page, S.E. (2011). Diversity and Complexity. Princeton University Press (Primers in Complex Systems).
Page, S.E. (2018). The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You. Basic Books.
Miller, J.H. and Page, S.E. (2007). Complex Adaptive Social Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life. Princeton University Press.
Peer-reviewed articles
Hong, L. and Page, S.E. (2004). "Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101(46): 16385–16389.
Page, S.E. (2006). "Path Dependence." Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 1(1): 87–115.
Page, S.E. (2007). "Type Interactions and the Rule of Six." Economic Theory, 30(2): 223–241.
Bednar, J. and Page, S.E. (2007). "Can Game(s) Theory Explain Culture? The Emergence of Cultural Behavior Within Multiple Games." Rationality and Society, 19(1): 65–97.
Bednar, J., Bramson, A., Jones-Rooy, A. and Page, S.E. (2010). "Emergent Cultural Signatures and Persistent Diversity: A Model of Conformity and Consistency." Rationality and Society, 22(4): 407–444.

My guest today is Cass R. Sunstein, University Professor at Harvard and one of the most influential legal and political thinkers of our time. A prolific author of dozens of books and hundreds of academic articles, Cass has shaped debates in constitutional law, administrative law, behavioral economics, and public policy. He is regularly ranked amongst the very top of the most cited legal scholars alive. Cass also served as Administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs under President Obama. He has advised governments and international organizations around the world, and was awarded the Holberg Prize, the equivalent of a Nobel in law and the humanities.
His latest book, On Liberalism: In Defense of Freedom, is a systematic defense of the liberal tradition at a moment when it is, as he shows, under unprecedented pressure. Our conversation is centered around his book. We begin with the urgency at the heart of the book: how liberalism confronts critiques from moral conservatives and egalitarian progressives alike, what it means to defend the liberal framework in an era of fragmentation, etc. We then turn to questions of scaling: does liberalism have internal patterns or institutional mechanisms that allow it to scale across diverse societies. We grapple with how the liberal tradition’s “big tent” of thinkers (from Mill and Hayek to Roosevelt’s Second Bill of Rights) impact liberalism ability to scale. We also explore how liberalism navigates technological change, expertise versus public accountability, and the pretence of knowledge. I hope you enjoy our discussion.
You can follow me on X (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠).
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References:
On Liberalism (MIT Press, 2025) https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262049771/on-liberalism/

In the very first episode of Scaling Theory, I mentioned a few scientists who have shaped my understanding of the world. At the very top of that list is today’s guest: W. Brian Arthur.
Brian was born and raised in Belfast, Northern Ireland, and went on to become one of the most important figures of complexity science. Today, he is widely known as the father of complexity economics, a field that has transformed how we think about the evolution of modern economies.
His influence is remarkable. Brian’s work has been cited more than 58,000 times according to Google Scholar. He received numerous awards and recognition, such as being the inaugural laureate of the Lagrange Prize in Complexity Science, an award that many have described as complexity’s equivalent of the Nobel Prize. Brian has been, at age 37, the youngest endowed chair holder at Stanford University. He went on to work for my institutions, including the Santa Fe Institute, as we will talk about. On a personal note, I consider Brian a friend.
Now, what makes me especially happy to have Brian on the podcast is the unique perspective he brings on how economies form and evolve. His understanding of technology, how it emerges and scales, offers a lens that none others have developed. It is a way of seeing economic life as something alive. Be ready to be blown away.
You can follow me on X (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠).
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References:
W. Brian Arthur, Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events (1989) https://www.rochelleterman.com/ir/sites/default/files/arthur 1989.pdf
W. Brian Arthur, Foundations of Complexity Economics (2021) https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7844781/pdf/42254_2020_Article_273.pdf
W. Brian Arthur, The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves (2009)
W. Brian Arthur, Economics in Nouns and Verbs (2023) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268122003936
Thibault Schrepel, The Evolution of Economies, Technologies, and Other Institutions: Exploring W. Brian Arthur's Insights (2024) https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/8809341E2E94D76B8CCAB4A4DDACBC4C/S1744137424000067a.pdf/evolution_of_economies_technologies_and_other_institutions_exploring_w_brian_arthurs_insights.pdf

Welcome back to Scaling Theory. My guest today is Cristina Bicchieri, Professor of Social Thought and Comparative Ethics at the University of Pennsylvania, Director of the Center for Social Norms and Behavioral Dynamics, and one of the most influential scholars working on norm formation and collective behaviour. Her work is widely cited and, as we will talk about, has led to many field experiments and changes across the world.
In our conversation, Cristina and I talk about how norms emerge, scale, and sometimes collapse. We look at tipping signals, self-reinforcing equilibria, and why some norms spread through a population while others fail beyond small groups.
We then move to applied dimensions. Cristina takes us through the field experiments she has conducted and the patterns she has observed. Her work shows how norms and legal rules evolve together, which offers a fresh perspective on the forces that regulate and constrain much of what we do. We also talk about the challenges that appear when behaviours on digital platforms and AI ecosystems evolve faster than regulation. Finally, Cristina offers concrete guidance for policymakers and firms that want to design interventions grounded in norm theory.
I hope you will enjoy the conversation. Keep scaling, keep skating on thin ice.
You can follow me on X (@⁠⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠⁠).

Welcome back to Scaling Theory. My guest today is Robin Hanson, Associate Professor of economics at George Mason University. Robin has long been one of the most original thinkers on institutional design, collective intelligence, as explored in his books The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain. Across his career, he has pushed the boundaries of how societies can aggregate knowledge and make collective decisions when complexity scales faster than comprehension.
In this episode, Robin and I discuss how futarchy could scale that logic across our societies? As societies grow larger, representation, information, and incentives all begin to break down, and futarchy is one possible way to rebuild them. Robin and I talk about where this idea has been tested so far, what a real-world implementation might look like in a city or company, and why, despite its promise, futarchy hasn’t yet scaled.
Finally, we explore how new technologies like blockchain and AI might change the picture, whether they’ll make futarchy more viable, or perhaps even replace parts of it. And we look ahead to Robin’s vision from The Age of Em. When societies become unimaginably fast and complex, which human institutions survive, and which ones don’t?
You can follow me on X (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠).