Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

Banks start running away from AI lending, and we explain why that shift can hit regular investors long before it reaches the front page. We connect the dots between Nvidia’s margin story, “lost decade” market history, and the way risk gets quietly pushed into pensions and funds. 
• big banks auctioning AI linked loans and what that signals 
• credit insurance on AI borrowers and the echo of 2008 mechanics 
• why index funds concentrate you in Nvidia and mega cap tech 
• how gross margins and competition can compress even great businesses 
• the stock market’s real return regimes and the lost decade risk 
• positioning skills versus panic selling when returns go flat 
• structured risk transfer and how banks move the worst slice outward 
• circular financing inside AI infrastructure and why revenue can mislead 
• 30-year Treasury yields mortgage rates and the housing market freeze 
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Gold prices tend to fall during the early stages of geopolitical crises, not because the metal is broken but because of a predictable mechanical sequence involving oil, inflation expectations, bond yields and the US dollar. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, walks through every major oil shock from 1973 to 2022 and shows that gold initially dipped each time before rallying to new highs. He outlines a four-phase recovery pattern, from panic selling in the first weeks through an absorption phase that shakes out holders, to a structural bid driven by central bank purchases and supply deficits, and finally new all-time highs. He also examines silver, noting three consecutive years of supply deficit and rising industrial demand, and identifies five sectors that have historically outperformed during these episodes: gold miners, silver, energy, defence and utilities.
In this episode:
00:00 Why gold has not risen despite the current crisis
02:00 The mechanical sequence from oil spike to gold suppression
09:00 Historical oil shocks and subsequent gold rallies from 1973 to 2022
15:55 The four-phase recovery pattern for gold and silver
20:00 Silver supply deficit and industrial demand dynamics
23:00 Five sectors that outperform during geopolitical shocks
26:05 The debt and liquidity story behind the structural setup
28:20 Two investor types and the role of pattern recognition
Sources mentioned:
Stanley Druckenmiller
COMEX
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)
iShares US Aerospace and Defence ETF (ITA)
Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU)
Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.
Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com
Support the show
👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Gold forced selling by central banks is reshaping the bullion market as the Iran war disrupts oil flows and triggers dollar shortages across import-dependent nations. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, traces how Turkey liquidated roughly 58 tons of gold in two weeks, outpacing global ETF outflows combined. He explains the mechanism by which currency-peg countries in the Gulf face a similar margin call: with the Strait of Hormuz closed, dollar inflows from oil sales dry up while military and import costs rise, leaving gold sales as the only viable option to defend their pegs. Russia's forthcoming export ban, effective May 2026, adds further near-term selling pressure. China, the largest state buyer, paused purchases in late 2025. Yet Felix argues the long-term case for gold remains intact, citing likely future rate cuts, continued deficit spending and the erosion of fiat currency value.
In this episode:
00:00 Turkey liquidates 58 tons of gold in two weeks
04:30 Why oil price rises force energy importers to sell gold for dollars
07:30 How Gulf currency pegs create a dollar bathtub that is draining
13:00 Unconfirmed London vault outflows suggest Gulf sovereign selling
15:00 Russia restricts gold exports ahead of May 2026 deadline
16:30 Three simultaneous forces pushing gold prices lower
18:00 China pauses gold purchases in Q4 2025
18:35 Long-term bull case for gold remains despite short-term pressure
Sources mentioned:
TD Securities (commodity strategist quoted on central bank gold demand)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) central bank filings, https://www.imf.org
London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) vault data, https://www.lbma.org.uk
COMEX inventory data
Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.
Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com
Support the show
👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

We challenge the obsession with a blockbuster AI IPO and focus on the force underneath it: rapid money supply growth that inflates asset prices and quietly erodes purchasing power. We connect Treasury buybacks, Federal Reserve plumbing, and crowded tech positioning to the real question investors should ask: whether their wealth is actually growing after inflation. 

• the $1.4 trillion AI IPO as a symptom of liquidity 
• why big-name buyers are not treating the valuation as a joke 
• US money supply growth and what it does to asset prices 
• how “green numbers” can hide falling purchasing power 
• Treasury debt buybacks and the Fed as the ultimate backstop 
• suppressed long-term rates making stocks and housing look irresistible 
• concentration risk when everyone owns the same tech names 
• why selling gets brutal when there are no buyers left 
• sector rotation as the difference between trained money and headline investing 
• Bill Gates’ warning on AI negatives and retirement account risk 

Support the show
👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Oil price spikes have preceded every major market downturn of the past 50 years, and the current surge linked to the Iran conflict follows the same pattern. Felix Nikolas Prehn walks through the chain reaction from rising energy costs to inflation, frozen monetary policy and falling consumer sentiment. He highlights that physical oil delivered to Asia is trading above $150 a barrel even as paper futures sit near $115, a divergence that suggests real scarcity beyond what headline prices convey. Gold and silver have sold off alongside equities in what amounts to an everything crash. Drawing on a Bank of America research note written for institutional clients, he outlines the case for a coming policy panic, a weakening dollar and eventual rebounds in consumer discretionary stocks, software and consumer finance. He counsels against chasing oil or defence stocks and stresses risk management over headline watching.
In this episode:
00:00 Bank of America institutional research note on the oil crisis
00:33 Oil spikes and market crashes over the past 50 years
03:00 Physical oil at $150 versus paper price at $115
07:40 The domino chain from oil to inflation to rate policy
10:34 Why gold and silver are failing as safe havens
12:24 Stagflation risk and the Fed being unable to act
14:15 Bank of America on policy panic and beaten down sectors
18:54 Risk management rules and following money flows
Sources mentioned:
Bank of America (institutional research note), https://www.bankofamerica.com
Goldman Sachs (inflation forecast), https://www.goldmansachs.com
Federal Reserve (oil price scenarios), https://www.federalreserve.gov
CME COMEX, https://www.cmegroup.com
Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.
Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com
Support the show
👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks