On The Tape with Danny Moses

Danny Moses welcomes back housing analyst Ivy Zelman of Walker & Dunlop for her fourth appearance, exactly a year after her last visit. Homebuilders jumped 5-8% after the midterms. Ivy explains why she thinks the Democratic sweep does little to fix affordability. The real obstacles are local: impact fees, environmental fees and zoning.

Timecodes
0:00 - Intro
1:21 - Midterms and Housing
2:10 - Rates and Affordability
4:13 - Labor and ICE Raids
7:10 - Public Builders’ Market Share
8:13 - Demographics
12:18 - Fannie and Freddie
13:10 - K-Shaped Economy
19:30 - Housing Summit Takeaways
25:59 - GPUs and GFC Parallels

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ABOUT THE SHOW
For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34

The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Danny Moses and Vinnie Daniel of Seawolf Capital join Clear Street's Puneet Pardasani to share their contrarian view of today’s markets. They explain how passive flows and momentum-driven market structure create inefficiencies, and they compare the AI capex boom to both the dot-com era and the GFC. They point to circular financing, data center securitization and leverage sitting outside the banking system.

Learn more about Clear Street: https://www.clearstreet.io/

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ABOUT THE SHOW
For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34

The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On On the Tape, James Aitken of Aitken Advisors recounts writing “Notes From a Small Island” for decades and describes his work helping institutional and high-net-worth clients ignore noise, stay patient, and capitalize on dislocations. In a macro backdrop of higher debt, inflation, wars, and concentrated equity leadership, he says bonds—especially parts of the Treasury curve and TIPS—now offer unusually attractive risk-reward, though they may hedge less reliably in a higher-inflation regime and could challenge risk-parity positioning. Aitken argues a government-underwritten AI and national-resilience CapEx boom is inflationary near term, with markets increasingly scrutinizing leverage and downstream project economics. He critiques Scott Bessent as buying time in Treasuries and expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to keep hiking to re-anchor inflation amid Middle East-driven energy risks. He views the dollar as supported by global asset-allocation inertia, stresses judgment over AI tools, and praises Mark Carney’s pragmatic reforms and efforts to attract capital to Canada.

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ABOUT THE SHOW
For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34

The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Get RenMac's Research HERE: https://linktr.ee/renmacllc

Danny Moses welcomes back Jeff deGraaf, CEO and chief market strategist of Renaissance Macro Research (RenMac), to discuss a market that feels increasingly fragile and top-heavy, highlighted by the gap between cap-weighted and equal-weight S&P 500 performance. deGraaf explains how passive flows and momentum concentration distort benchmarks, while higher real rates pressure the average stock and tighten financial conditions. They examine widening credit spreads led by triple-C junk, signs of deterioration in speculative areas, and why credit is the key signal for equities. The conversation covers semiconductors and AI as cyclical trades with valuation risks, including takeaways from RenMac’s podcast guest on uneven AI spending. deGraaf cites supportive seasonality but stresses strong Q3 earnings and loan-book trends are needed. He favors energy and healthcare, discusses Treasury term premium dynamics and auctions, and reviews how real rates and European fiscal concerns are driving dollar strength.

Timecodes
0:00 - Intro
3:00 - Top-Heavy Market
8:10 - Credit Cycles
14:00 - AI Trade
21:30 - Seasonality
24:55 - Earnings Picture
28:40 - Energy & Healthcare
32:10 - Bond Market
40:05 - US Dollar
43:25 - Outro

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ABOUT THE SHOW
For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34

The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Danny, Vinnie and Porter are joined by R.P. Eddy, founder and CEO of the global intelligence and advisory firm Ergo, and co-author of Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.

Eddy explains what separates a true Cassandra from a Chicken Little. He also explains why being right is only half the job if no one listens. He traces how the Fukushima disaster set off a chain of decisions that left Europe dependent on Russian energy.

The conversation then turns to AI. Eddy argues that controllability is the risk we haven't confronted yet. He says the "beat China" framing is a false choice, and that the economic "denominator" behind AI spending is real, even if the market gets frothy.

Learn more about the The Cassandra Award here: cassandraaward.net

Timecodes
0:00 - Intro
3:05 - The Cassandra Coefficient
12:00 - AI & Regulations
26:40 - Geopolitical Outlook
30:00 - Midterms & The Middle East
44:25 - Russia-Ukraine
48:00 - Runaway US Spending
53:40 - Signs of Optimism

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FOLLOW US
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Twitter: @RiskReversal
LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.