Doom Debates

Get ready for a rematch with the one & only Bentham’s Bulldog, a.k.a. Matthew Adelstein! Our first debate covered a wide range of philosophical topics.
Today’s Debate #2 is all about Matthew’s new argument against the inevitability of AI doom. He comes out swinging with a calculated P(Doom) of just 2.6% , based on a multi-step probability chain that I challenge as potentially falling into a “Type 2 Conjunction Fallacy” (a.k.a. Multiple Stage Fallacy).
We clash on whether to expect “alignment by default” and the nature of future AI architectures. While Matthew sees current RLHF success as evidence that AIs will likely remain compliant, I argue that we’re building “Goal Engines” — superhuman optimization modules that act like nuclear cores wrapped in friendly personalities. We debate whether these engines can be safely contained, or if the capability to map goals to actions is inherently dangerous and prone to exfiltration.
Despite our different forecasts (my 50% vs his sub-10%), we actually land in the “sane zone” together on some key policy ideas, like the potential necessity of a global pause.
While Matthew’s case for low P(Doom) hasn’t convinced me, I consider his post and his engagement with me to be super high quality and good faith. We’re not here to score points, we just want to better predict how the intelligence explosion will play out.
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Teaser
00:00:35 — Bentham’s Bulldog Returns to Doom Debates
00:05:43 — Higher-Order Evidence: Why Skepticism is Warranted
00:11:06 — What’s Your P(Doom)™
00:14:38 — The “Multiple Stage Fallacy” Objection
00:21:48 — The Risk of Warring AIs vs. Misalignment
00:27:29 — Historical Pessimism: The “Boy Who Cried Wolf”
00:33:02 — Comparing AI Risk to Climate Change & Nuclear War
00:38:59 — Alignment by Default via Reinforcement Learning
00:46:02 — The “Goal Engine” Hypothesis
00:53:13 — Is Psychoanalyzing Current AI Valid for Future Systems?
01:00:17 — Winograd Schemas & The Fragility of Value
01:09:15 — The Nuclear Core Analogy: Dangerous Engines in Friendly Wrappers
01:16:16 — The Discontinuity of Unstoppable AI
01:23:53 — Exfiltration: Running Superintelligence on a Laptop
01:31:37 — Evolution Analogy: Selection Pressures for Alignment
01:39:08 — Commercial Utility as a Force for Constraints
01:46:34 — Can You Isolate the “Goal-to-Action” Module?
01:54:15 — Will Friendly Wrappers Successfully Control Superhuman Cores?
02:04:01 — Moral Realism and Missing Out on Cosmic Value
02:11:44 — The Paradox of AI Solving the Alignment Problem
02:19:11 — Policy Agreements: Global Pauses and China
02:26:11 — Outro: PauseCon DC 2026 Promo
Links
Bentham’s Bulldog Official Substack — https://benthams.substack.com
The post we debated — https://benthams.substack.com/p/against-if-anyone-builds-it-everyone
Apply to PauseCon DC 2026 here or via https://pauseai-us.org
Forethought Institute’s paper: Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion
Tom Davidson (Forethought Institute)’s post: How quick and big would a software intelligence explosion be?
Scott Alexander on the Coffeepocalypse Argument

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Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Harlan Stewart works in communications for the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI).
In this episode, Harlan and I give our honest opinions on Dario Amodei's new essay "The Adolescence of Technology".
Timestamps
0:00:00 — Cold Open
0:00:47 — How Harlan Stewart Got Into AI Safety
0:02:30 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™
0:04:09 — The “Doomer” Label
0:06:13 — Overall Reaction to Dario’s Essay: The Missing Mood
0:09:15 — The Rosy Take on Dario’s Essay
0:10:42 — Character Assassination & Low Blows
0:13:39 — Dario Amodei is Shifting the Overton Window in The Wrong Direction
0:15:04 — Object-Level vs. Meta-Level Criticisms
0:17:07 — The “Inevitability” Strawman Used by Dario
0:19:03 — Dario Refers to Doom as a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
0:22:38 — Dismissing Critics as “Too Theoretical”
0:43:18 — The Problem with Psychoanalyzing AI
0:56:12 — “Intellidynamics” & Reflective Stability
1:07:12 — Why Is Dario Dismissing an AI Pause?
1:11:45 — Final Takeaways
Links
Harlan’s X — https://x.com/HumanHarlan
“The Adolescence of Technology” by Dario Amodei — https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Check out the new Doom Debates studio in this Q&A with special guest Producer Ori! Liron gets into a heated discussion about whether doomers must validate short-term risks, like data center water usage, in order to build a successful political coalition.
Originally streamed on Saturday, January 24.
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Cold Open
00:00:26 — Introduction and Studio Tour
00:08:17 — Q&A: Alignment, Accelerationism, and Short-Term Risks
00:18:15 — Dario Amodei, Davos, and AI Pause
00:27:42 — Producer Ori Joins: Locations and Vibes
00:35:31 — Legislative Strategy vs. Social Movements (The Tobacco Playbook)
00:45:01 — Ethics of Investing in or Working for AI Labs
00:54:23 — Defining Superintelligence and Human Limitations
01:02:58 — Technical Risks: Self-Replication and Cyber Warfare
01:19:08 — Live Debate with Zane: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Strategy
01:53:15 — Marketing Doom Debates and Guest Outreach
01:56:45 — Live Call with Jonas: Scenarios for Survival
02:05:52 — Conclusion and Mission Statement
Links
Liron’s X Post about Destiny — https://x.com/liron/status/2015144778652905671?s=20
Why Laws, Treaties, and Regulations Won’t Save Us from AI | For Humanity Ep. 77 — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUX00c5x2UM
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Audrey Tang was the youngest minister in Taiwanese history. Now she's working to align AI with democratic principles as Taiwan's Cyber Ambassador.
In this debate, I probe her P(doom) and stress-test her vision for safe AI development.
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Episode Preview
00:01:43 — Introducing Audrey Tang, Cyber Ambassador of Taiwan
00:07:20 — Being Taiwan’s First Digital Minister
00:17:19 — What's Your P(Doom)? ™
00:21:10 — Comparing AI Risk to Nuclear Risk
00:22:53 — The Statement on AI Extinction Risk
00:27:29 — Doomerism as a Hyperstition
00:30:51 — Audrey Explains Her Vision of "Plurality"
00:37:17 — Audrey Explains Her Principles of Civic Ethics, The "6-Pack of Care"
00:45:58 — AGI Timelines: "It's Already Here"
00:54:41 — The Apple Analogy
01:03:09 — What If AI FOOMs?
01:11:19 — What AI Can vs What AI Will Do
01:15:20 — Lessons from COVID-19
01:19:59 — Is Society Ready? Audrey Reflects on a Personal Experience with Mortality
01:23:50 — AI Alignment Cannot Be Top-Down
01:34:04 — AI-as-Mother vs AI-as-Gardener
01:37:26 — China and the Geopolitics of AI Chip Manufacturing in Taiwan
01:40:47 — Red Lines, International Treaties, and the Off Button
01:48:26 — Debate Wrap-Up

Links
Plurality: The Future of Collaborative Technology and Democracy by Glen Weyl and Audrey Tang — https://www.amazon.com/Plurality-Future-Collaborative-Technology-Democracy/dp/B0D98RPKCK
Audrey’s X — https://x.com/audreyt
Audrey’s Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Audrey_Tang

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

I joined Steve Bannon’s War Room Battleground to talk about AI doom.
Hosted by Joe Allen, we cover AGI timelines, raising kids with a high p(doom), and why improving our survival odds requires a global wake-up call.
00:00:00 — Episode Preview
00:01:17 — Joe Allen opens the show and introduces Liron Shapira
00:04:06 — Liron: What’s Your P(Doom)?
00:05:37 — How Would an AI Take Over?
00:07:20 — The Timeline to AGI
00:08:17 — Benchmarks & AI Passing the Turing Test
00:14:43 — Liron Is Typically a Techno-Optimist
00:18:00 — Raising a Family with a High P(Doom)
00:23:48 — Mobilizing a Grassroots AI Survival Campaign
00:26:45 — Final Message: A Wake-Up Call
00:29:23 — Joe Allen’s Closing Message to the War Room Posse
Links:
Joe’s Substack — https://substack.com/@joebot
Joe’s Twitter — https://x.com/JOEBOTxyz
Bannon’s War Room Twitter — https://x.com/Bannons_WarRoom
WarRoom Battleground EP 922: AI Doom Debates with Liron Shapira on Rumble — https://rumble.com/v742oo4-warroom-battleground-ep-922-ai-doom-debates-with-liron-shapira.html
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe