Top Traders Unplugged

• SI371: Trends Don’t Form Randomly. They Form Reflexively ft. Richard Brennan

  Richard Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into structure, not pattern; alignment, not noise. Drawing from neuroscience and fractal geometry, Rich challenges the idea that markets can be understood without understanding interaction. The episode builds toward a pointed exchange on position sizing - closed equity versus dynamic exposure - not as a technical footnote, but as a reflection of first principles. In a system where the path shapes the outcome, how you define risk... often reveals how you think the world works.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00:00 – Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series00:00:23 – Niels’ intro, show setup, and warm welcome to Rich00:00:57 – Heatwave down under: context and small talk00:02:10 – Rich: divided brain, AI vs embodiment, and markets needing rules00:07:50 – AI’s edge shrinks prediction windows; why that helps trend following00:10:35 – Gold’s violent selloff; electricity vs oil as the new macro lens00:14:51 – “Trend heaven”: why the backdrop now looks robust00:18:12 – Post-GFC compression vs today’s decoupling and trends00:22:43 – Impact and reflexivity: trades reshape the next trade00:28:23 – Non-ergodic markets: path dependence beats Gaussian assumptions00:35:48 – Volatility ≠...

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• UGO07: The Illusion of Safety: How Markets Became the Economy ft. Keith DeCarlucci, Patrick Kazley & Hari Krishnan

  Recorded amid the noise and pulse of the RMC conference in Munich, this episode of U Got Options follows a market learning to see itself anew. Cem Karsan speaks with Keith DeCarlucci on the return of macro discipline through EM carry and the quiet yield of volatility. Patrick Kazley traces the fault lines of diversification, where beta, convexity, and policy now intersect. And Hari Krishnan confronts the uneasy coexistence of human intuition and machine logic in risk. Together, they chart the tension between structure and surprise - a world still trading on old instincts, but guided by new intelligence.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and introductions01:29 - Overview of guests and themes: EM, volatility, and AI03:10 - Keith DeCarlucci on EM FX, commodities, and volatility trades14:13 - Relative value in equity vol and tail-hedging strategies21:20 - Patrick Casley on portfolio construction and convexity32:24 - Reassessing 60/40, nominal illusion, and macro correlations39:44 - The new regime: long assets vs limited diversifiers44:39 - Hari Krishnan on AI, options, and the future of volatility56:06 - Upside skew, real assets, and structural market shifts01:05:21 - Closing remarks and disclaimersCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

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• SI370: Sharpe Ratios, Tail Risks, and the Cost of Comfort ft. Nigol Koulajian & Alan Dunne

  Nigol Koulajian, founder of AlphaQuest rejoins Niels and Alan for a conversation about markets shaped less by fundamentals than by perception. As political influence deepens and volatility is managed rather than discovered, traditional risk signals lose meaning. Sharpe ratios climb not through edge, but through exposure to hidden fragilities. Diversification is narrowing. And while systematic strategies continue to hold their line, the forces around them are shifting - slowly, structurally, and with consequences. This episode is about recognizing imbalance in real time, resisting the comfort of consensus, and asking whether today’s apparent stability is masking tomorrow’s risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:32 - Introduction to our special guest01:57 - How did the economy end up the way it is today?09:15 - Is it just a cycle?19:46 - What is the end game?23:47 - A short masterclass on skew and convexity31:45 - How trend following has changed over time39:18 - Should you optimize your portfolio from a short or long term perspective?45:19 - How Nigol navigates the strong headwinds for CTAs53:04 - Turning the risk of pod shops into opportunities56:06 - When will we revert to a more "normal" environment?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

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• GM89: When Credibility Becomes the Risk Premium ft. Maurice Obstfeld

  Maurice Obstfeld joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at how the foundations of the global monetary system are shifting - and why much of the world is quietly preparing for a future without a stable dollar anchor. Drawing on decades in policy and research, Obstfeld explains how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and political interference are eroding the norms that once held the system together. They discuss the risk of fragmentation, the creeping politicization of the Fed, and why trust - not theory - is the real currency at stake. This is a conversation about power, credibility, and what happens when both start to slip.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Read more about Maurice here.Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Maurice Obstfeld05:26 - The role and evolution of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)08:14 - What has been the rationale for tariffs, and how has it impacted the economy?11:13 - Has the viewpoint on tariffs shifted?18:42 - How the changing monetary policy could undermine the dollar27:19 - Does an alternative to the dollar even exist?29:50 - What are the implications of moving away from the dollar?34:20 - A possible financial repression incoming?36:25 - The impact of an unusual approach to policy making domestically39:16 - A fork in the road for the...

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• SI369: Liquidity, Leverage, and the End of Safety ft. Mark Rzepczynski

  Gold is ripping, but it’s not about inflation. It’s about trust - or the slow erosion of it. Mark Rzepczynski returns to map out the shifting terrain as central banks quietly step away from sovereign debt and build reserves in metal, not paper. Niels presses on what this says about safe assets, liquidity, and the narratives we’ve long taken for granted. They unpack the rise of short-term options, the distortive power of retail flow, and the fragility buried inside modern plumbing. And as trend followers chase edge in crowded markets, Mark offers a glimpse into what comes next: networks, feedback loops, and systems that learn - until they break.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:34 - What has been on our radar recently?05:43 - Is this time different for gold?14:13 - Just a gold story?16:38 - Should we redefine the definition of safe assets?19:45 - The Fed has to change26:08 - An overbearing uncertainty30:25 - Our thoughts on meme stocks35:30 - Not every innovations are good39:02 - How narratives impact how products are sold46:21 - Industry performance update49:39 - Alternative vs traditional assets01:00:43 - Every CTA is a short term trader01:05:59 - The power of seeing the connection between markets01:14:32 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

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