Top Traders Unplugged

This week, we are joined by Yoav Git and Rob Croce from Fidelity Investments for a deep dive into trend following, portfolio construction and execution in modern markets. The conversation explores why crisis alpha may come more from beta timing than market selection, the logic behind betting against beta, and how quantitative investors think about diversification, carry and relative value strategies. Along the way, the trio discuss Japan’s rising bond yields, momentum investing, execution risk during crises and even how ChatGPT helped solve a 60-year-old mathematical problem. This is a technical but highly practical discussion about how systematic investors build robust portfolios in a changing macro environment.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on LinkedIn and read his paper.
Follow Yoav on Linkedin.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:57 - Rob Croce’s path from economics to managed futures and trend following
04:38 - Yoav on AI-assisted mathematics and solving a 60-year-old problem
06:14 - Rob on out-of-sample testing and learning from market structure
11:42 - Rising Japanese bond yields and the global bond market backdrop
12:39 - Momentum investing and the growing popularity of trend-based strategies
17:04 - Current trend following environment across equities, bonds and commodities
19:13 - “Betting Against Beta” and why low-beta portfolios may outperform
25:43 - The role of leverage aversion and diversification in factor investing
34:26 - Rob Croce’s paper: where crisis alpha really comes from
40:31 - Why beta timing drives much of trend following’s defensive behavior
47:46 - Can carry improve trend following without sacrificing crisis alpha?
51:51 - Execution algorithms, risk reduction and trading during crises
57:46 - Why correlation spikes matter for portfolio execution and liquidity
01:04:05 - Final thoughts and where to find Rob Croce’s research
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
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Today, we are joined by David Beckworth, Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center and host of Macro Musings, for a deep dive into the biggest macro questions shaping markets right now. David explains why central banks struggle to respond to supply shocks, why inflation expectations are more fragile than policymakers admit, and how frameworks like nominal GDP targeting could offer a more robust path forward. We explore the collision between geopolitical shocks and AI-driven productivity, the hidden consequences of quantitative easing, and the growing tension between monetary policy and fiscal sustainability. From stablecoins and the future of the dollar to the Fed’s balance sheet and financial system plumbing, this episode unpacks the forces quietly reshaping the global economy, and why policymakers may be less in control than we think.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow David on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Stablecoins, financial stability, and uncertain impact
01:00 - David Beckworth’s path into macroeconomics
05:43 - How central banks should respond to supply shocks
08:56 - Why policymakers struggle to separate supply vs demand
11:58 - Inflation expectations and post-COVID sensitivity
14:46 - Are central banks over-reliant on flawed inflation models?
18:49 - AI as a positive supply shock: hype vs reality
22:00 - Productivity booms, deflation, and policy challenges
25:11 - Kevin Warsh, AI optimism, and the Fed’s future direction
29:33 - QE, QT, and the long-term impact on financial markets
33:28 - The “ratchet effect” and why the Fed can’t shrink easily
37:59 - Liquidity: abundant or an illusion?
41:38 - Are markets addicted to central bank liquidity?
44:21 - Fiscal dominance and the long-term risk to central banks
53:54 - Stablecoins, dollar dominance, and global demand
59:10 - Private credit and the evolving financial system
01:00:49 - Books, learning, and building a career in macro
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Today, Niels and Alan examine a market shaped by two forces pulling in opposite directions: AI’s promise of higher productivity and the inflationary pressure of geopolitical stress. From distorted economic data and shifting rate expectations to energy shocks, fiscal pressure, and the changing role of trend following, this conversation explores why traditional portfolios may need more flexibility than they once did. Alan also shares a world exclusive on the launch of his Regime Adaptive Fund, built around the idea that portfolios should not simply sit through changing regimes, but adjust as markets, inflation, and correlations evolve. A timely discussion on risk, resilience, and the limits of old playbooks.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged
00:36 - Niels welcomes Alan Dunne back to the Systematic Investor Series
01:31 - How AI is distorting economic data, earnings, and construction trends
06:13 - UK council elections, Reform UK, and pressure on political assumptions
09:00 - Trend following update and the shift in fixed income exposure
13:35 - Why recent macro shocks have created a favorable backdrop for trend followers
16:45 - AI, Iran, and the collision between positive and negative supply shocks
26:22 - Graham Capital’s research on macro performance across monetary regimes
37:09 - AQR’s view on multi-asset portfolios, trend following, and inflation risk
46:07 - Why diversification still comes with discomfort
51:26 - Should trend following trade equities when stacked on equities?
56:38 - Alan reveals the launch of the Regime Adaptive Fund
01:05:42 - Equity market strength, hidden risks, and portfolio construction today
01:08:46 - Closing thoughts and upcoming episode preview
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

What does it take to become a true Market Wizard, and why do so many of them fail before they find their edge? In this special episode, Moritz Seibert sits down with Jack Schwager and George Coyle to discuss The Next Generation of Market Wizards, the sixth book in the series that began in 1989. Together, they explore how extraordinary traders are found, how their records are verified in an age of AI, and why many of the most remarkable returns still come from discretionary traders. From blown-up accounts and shorting small caps to the psychological cost of sitting in front of screens for 14 hours a day, this is a rare look at the craft, pressure, and persistence behind exceptional trading.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Why single trading systems rarely produce “wizard-level” returns
01:17 – Introduction to the new Market Wizards book
02:37 – George Coyle’s background and path to co-authoring
05:00 – What makes this new book different (focus on solo traders)
06:00 – How top traders are discovered
10:46 – Verifying extreme performance claims in the AI era
13:26 – The most surprising trait: repeated early failure
15:54 – New-generation strategies that break “classic” rules
19:02 – Timeless trading principles that still hold
21:16 – Why most market wizards are discretionary, not systematic
24:41 – Why individual quant systems rarely achieve extreme returns
26:53 – Listener question: systematic vs discretionary trading
30:17 – Personality traits of elite traders
32:21 – The hidden “cost” of being a top trader
35:50 – Can anyone become a market wizard?
38:47 – What’s changed in trading edges over time
41:53 – Preview of the next book (hedge fund traders)
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Today, we are joined by Philip Diehl, former Director of the United States Mint and President of U.S. Money Reserve, for a timely conversation about gold’s renewed role in a world shaped by inflation, geopolitical stress, central bank demand, and uncertainty around fiat currencies. Philip explains why gold’s recent rise is not simply a speculative move, but part of a broader shift in how governments, institutions, and individuals think about wealth preservation. From central bank buying and Chinese retail demand to Bitcoin, ETFs, physical coins, and the limits of the U.S. dollar system, this episode explores why gold is once again moving from the margins of portfolios toward the center of the macro conversation.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Philip on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why Philip Diehl believes investors should “buy the dip” in gold
01:14 - Philip’s career from public policy to the U.S. Mint
06:08 - What U.S. Money Reserve does and why physical gold matters
08:08 - The forces behind gold’s powerful multi-year rally
13:08 - Central bank buying, dollar risk, and portfolio diversification
19:05 - Why some central banks may sell gold during stress
22:18 - Chinese demand, cultural memory, and the role of retail buyers
28:32 - Why Philip does not see Bitcoin as “digital gold”
32:44 - Physical gold versus ETFs and the question of ownership
37:10 - How retail investors behave during gold bull markets
41:16 - Portfolio allocation and the changing case for gold
45:52 - Why Philip expects gold to outperform equities over the next decade
48:15 - Why today’s gold market is not a repeat of the 1970s
52:21 - Gold miners, production limits, and rising extraction costs
55:58 - Fort Knox, revaluing U.S. gold reserves, and political reality
59:24 - Lessons from Philip’s career and how to learn more about gold
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer